Looking increasingly likely. Unsettled, cool and potentially wet. Not a great outlook, but the models have pointed to this for 24 hours now. Awaiting the ECM 12z to firm up a forecast.

On 06/05/2013 18:38, Dawlish wrote:
Looking increasingly likely. Unsettled, cool and potentially wet.

Could do with the rain. Having to water the new fruit bushes I planted
this winter with tap water as the butts are now empty (all 1000 litres'
storage gone).

Soil is bone dry. Just 5.6 mm of rain since the 14th April.

--
Nick G
Otter Valley, Devon
20 m amsl
http://www.ottervalley.co.uk

On Monday, May 6, 2013 6:58:15 PM UTC+1, Nick Gardner wrote:
On 06/05/2013 18:38, Dawlish wrote:

Looking increasingly likely. Unsettled, cool and potentially wet.



Could do with the rain. Having to water the new fruit bushes I planted

this winter with tap water as the butts are now empty (all 1000 litres'

storage gone).



Soil is bone dry. Just 5.6 mm of rain since the 14th April.



--

Nick G

Otter Valley, Devon

20 m amsl

http://www.ottervalley.co.uk

I know. Tuesday night should see some, but mid-May could see us hankering after sun and warmth. The vagaries of the British weather eh?

On 2013-05-06 17:58:15 +0000, Nick Gardner said:

On 06/05/2013 18:38, Dawlish wrote:
Looking increasingly likely. Unsettled, cool and potentially wet.

Could do with the rain. Having to water the new fruit bushes I planted
this winter with tap water as the butts are now empty (all 1000 litres'
storage gone).

Soil is bone dry. Just 5.6 mm of rain since the 14th April.

Crikey, that sounds serious.

However, judging by the computer forecast that I have seen, your
prayers should be answered from midnight tonight.

I don't know how much rainfall it takes to replenish your butts, but I
have a total 800 litres worth of tanks (stationed at the four corners
of the house), and usually find that 7-10mm will have them almost full
which I consider to be rather efficient.

I have an old cold water tank ex-the loft, nearby; and when it looks
like heavy rain is approaching on the radar, I quickly fill that from
the butts using buckets, so that I don't waste what is about to fall on
the roof, by the butts overflowing. My neighbours think that I am a bit
strange, but it keeps me going for a few extra days.

On Tue, 7 May 2013 09:58:41 +0100, yttiw wrote:


I don't know how much rainfall it takes to replenish your butts, but I
have a total 800 litres worth of tanks (stationed at the four corners
of the house), and usually find that 7-10mm will have them almost full
which I consider to be rather efficient.

Just had 11.2mm in Dorset so for you.....

Regards

Robin, Hilton, Dorset

On Tuesday, May 7, 2013 9:58:41 AM UTC+1, yttiw wrote:
On 2013-05-06 17:58:15 +0000, Nick Gardner said:



On 06/05/2013 18:38, Dawlish wrote:

Looking increasingly likely. Unsettled, cool and potentially wet.



Could do with the rain. Having to water the new fruit bushes I planted

this winter with tap water as the butts are now empty (all 1000 litres'

storage gone).



Soil is bone dry. Just 5.6 mm of rain since the 14th April.



Crikey, that sounds serious.



However, judging by the computer forecast that I have seen, your

prayers should be answered from midnight tonight.



I don't know how much rainfall it takes to replenish your butts, but I

have a total 800 litres worth of tanks (stationed at the four corners

of the house), and usually find that 7-10mm will have them almost full

which I consider to be rather efficient.



I have an old cold water tank ex-the loft, nearby; and when it looks

like heavy rain is approaching on the radar, I quickly fill that from

the butts using buckets, so that I don't waste what is about to fall on

the roof, by the butts overflowing. My neighbours think that I am a bit

strange, but it keeps me going for a few extra days.

Still looking likely, though both models have flirted with establishing high pressure in the Atlantic since I started this thread 3 days ago. I'm not liking this set-up at all. Slow moving low pressures stuck over the country = potentially heavy rain and flooding. See if the current output from both models shows the same this evening.

On Thursday, May 9, 2013 9:25:33 AM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:

Still looking likely, though both models have flirted with establishing high pressure in the Atlantic since I started this thread 3 days ago. I'm not liking this set-up at all. Slow moving low pressures stuck over the country = potentially heavy rain and flooding. See if the current output from both models shows the same this evening.

The models never settled on this, did they? Hence no forecast and I was probably right not to jump. 2 very different outlooks this morning, with the gfs suggesting ridging of the azores high (nice) and the ECM beginning to show warm continental air flooding over the UK by late next weekend. That was suggested on the MetO website 36 hours ago (a "signal with uncertainty") but has been replaced with a risk of thundery rain moving "up" (yeuch, be precise) from the continent.

"UK Outlook for Tuesday 14 May 2013 to Thursday 23 May 2013:

Next week, generally unsettled and rather cool conditions will continue with a mix of cloud, locally heavy rain in places, but also some sunnier interludes. Most of the unsettled weather looks to be in the northwest of the UK, where showers may contain hail and thunder, with perhaps a little wintriness over the Highlands. The best of the drier, brighter weather should be in the east. Temperatures will generally be a little below normal, feeling cool in rain or showers. There is also a signal, with some uncertainty at this stage, that it will become increasingly unsettled in the south later next week and into the following week, with the risk of thundery rain moving up from the continent, whilst drier and brighter conditions develop in more northern areas.

Updated: 1141 on Thu 9 May 2013"

On Friday, May 10, 2013 11:19:30 AM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
On Thursday, May 9, 2013 9:25:33 AM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:



Still looking likely, though both models have flirted with establishing high pressure in the Atlantic since I started this thread 3 days ago. I'm not liking this set-up at all. Slow moving low pressures stuck over the country = potentially heavy rain and flooding. See if the current output from both models shows the same this evening.



The models never settled on this, did they? Hence no forecast and I was probably right not to jump. 2 very different outlooks this morning, with the gfs suggesting ridging of the azores high (nice) and the ECM beginning to show warm continental air flooding over the UK by late next weekend. That was suggested on the MetO website 36 hours ago (a "signal with uncertainty") but has been replaced with a risk of thundery rain moving "up" (yeuch, be precise) from the continent.



"UK Outlook for Tuesday 14 May 2013 to Thursday 23 May 2013:



Next week, generally unsettled and rather cool conditions will continue with a mix of cloud, locally heavy rain in places, but also some sunnier interludes. Most of the unsettled weather looks to be in the northwest of the UK, where showers may contain hail and thunder, with perhaps a little wintriness over the Highlands. The best of the drier, brighter weather should be in the east. Temperatures will generally be a little below normal, feeling cool in rain or showers. There is also a signal, with some uncertainty at this stage, that it will become increasingly unsettled in the south later next week and into the following week, with the risk of thundery rain moving up from the continent, whilst drier and brighter conditions develop in more northern areas.



Updated: 1141 on Thu 9 May 2013"

gfs 06z is, however, a hopeless outlier at 10/11 days and the operational output should be taken with a vat of salt...........

On Friday, May 10, 2013 11:58:54 AM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
On Friday, May 10, 2013 11:19:30 AM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:

On Thursday, May 9, 2013 9:25:33 AM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:







Still looking likely, though both models have flirted with establishing high pressure in the Atlantic since I started this thread 3 days ago. I'm not liking this set-up at all. Slow moving low pressures stuck over the country = potentially heavy rain and flooding. See if the current output from both models shows the same this evening.







The models never settled on this, did they? Hence no forecast and I was probably right not to jump. 2 very different outlooks this morning, with the gfs suggesting ridging of the azores high (nice) and the ECM beginning to show warm continental air flooding over the UK by late next weekend. That was suggested on the MetO website 36 hours ago (a "signal with uncertainty") but has been replaced with a risk of thundery rain moving "up" (yeuch, be precise) from the continent.







"UK Outlook for Tuesday 14 May 2013 to Thursday 23 May 2013:







Next week, generally unsettled and rather cool conditions will continue with a mix of cloud, locally heavy rain in places, but also some sunnier interludes. Most of the unsettled weather looks to be in the northwest of the UK, where showers may contain hail and thunder, with perhaps a little wintriness over the Highlands. The best of the drier, brighter weather should be in the east. Temperatures will generally be a little below normal, feeling cool in rain or showers. There is also a signal, with some uncertainty at this stage, that it will become increasingly unsettled in the south later next week and into the following week, with the risk of thundery rain moving up from the continent, whilst drier and brighter conditions develop in more northern areas.







Updated: 1141 on Thu 9 May 2013"



gfs 06z is, however, a hopeless outlier at 10/11 days and the operational output should be taken with a vat of salt...........

Such a difference in the output. gfs has reverted back to a cool flow around a slow-moving low pressure to our North at 10 days, whereas the ECM is holding with flooding the UK with warm, continental air from late next Thursday. It sites a low close to the south coast of England, which could well mean some rather exciting and thundery weather. That's the UKMO's favoured solution and I certainly favour the ECM over the gfs this morning.