On Mon, 10 Jun 2013 12:16:26 -0700 (PDT), Dawlish
wrote:
On Monday, June 10, 2013 4:47:39 PM UTC+1, Scott W wrote:
Could be a case of close but no cigar, with heat staying across
the Channel as it sometimes does?
A toppler plume is often the result, 10 days hence, with
Scandinavia getting the heat. The warmth is still there on the gfs,
but the ECM shows just that; a toppler.

What's a toppler plume?

--
Freddie
Bayston Hill
Shropshire
102m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
https://twitter.com/#!/BaystonHillWx for hourly reports

On Monday, June 10, 2013 8:19:18 PM UTC+1, Freddie wrote:
On Mon, 10 Jun 2013 12:16:26 -0700 (PDT), Dawlish

wrote:

On Monday, June 10, 2013 4:47:39 PM UTC+1, Scott W wrote:

Could be a case of close but no cigar, with heat staying across

the Channel as it sometimes does?

A toppler plume is often the result, 10 days hence, with

Scandinavia getting the heat. The warmth is still there on the gfs,

but the ECM shows just that; a toppler.



What's a toppler plume?



--

Freddie

Bayston Hill

Shropshire

102m AMSL

http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/

https://twitter.com/#!/BaystonHillWx for hourly reports

Shows on the 10 days charts, then ends up missing us to the East, The model predicts the plume, but not it's eventual path. No certainties that will happen, or even, yet, that the plume will happen, but that would be a "toppler".

I doubt whether you'll find that in published literature. *))

On Monday, June 10, 2013 10:12:31 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
On Monday, June 10, 2013 8:19:18 PM UTC+1, Freddie wrote:

On Mon, 10 Jun 2013 12:16:26 -0700 (PDT), Dawlish



wrote:



On Monday, June 10, 2013 4:47:39 PM UTC+1, Scott W wrote:



Could be a case of close but no cigar, with heat staying across



the Channel as it sometimes does?



A toppler plume is often the result, 10 days hence, with



Scandinavia getting the heat. The warmth is still there on the gfs,



but the ECM shows just that; a toppler.







What's a toppler plume?







--



Freddie



Bayston Hill



Shropshire



102m AMSL



http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/



https://twitter.com/#!/BaystonHillWx for hourly reports



Shows on the 10 days charts, then ends up missing us to the East, The model predicts the plume, but not it's eventual path. No certainties that will happen, or even, yet, that the plume will happen, but that would be a "toppler".



I doubt whether you'll find that in published literature. *))

The possible plume is shown further east on the 00z gfs and ECM. It ain't coming our way, folks.

On Tuesday, June 11, 2013 7:01:05 AM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:


The possible plume is shown further east on the 00z gfs and ECM.

========

?

Not on the EC00 at T+240 it's not - 850hPa temperatures are as high as 20C as far as the East Midlands, with CAPE as much as 3,500 J/kg in eastern England at T+222. Not that this will necessarily come to fruition. In fact that specific scenario is low probability at the moment.

"Toppler plume" is a meaningless phrase. The plume, should it develop, may well be just east of the UK, as is so often the case, but that's nothing to do with "toppling".

Stephen.

On 10/06/2013 22:12, Dawlish wrote:
but not it's eventual path.

pedant, but not it is eventual path? No, please use the correct
punctuation. /pedant

Is that being hoist with his own pedant?

On Tuesday, June 11, 2013 11:14:05 AM UTC+1, Metman2012 wrote:
On 10/06/2013 22:12, Dawlish wrote:

but not it's eventual path.



pedant, but not it is eventual path? No, please use the correct

punctuation. /pedant



Is that being hoist with his own pedant?

Pedantry for my typo accepted.

On Tuesday, June 11, 2013 9:28:47 AM UTC+1, Stephen Davenport wrote:
On Tuesday, June 11, 2013 7:01:05 AM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:





The possible plume is shown further east on the 00z gfs and ECM.



========



?



Not on the EC00 at T+240 it's not - 850hPa temperatures are as high as 20C as far as the East Midlands, with CAPE as much as 3,500 J/kg in eastern England at T+222. Not that this will necessarily come to fruition. In fact that specific scenario is low probability at the moment.



"Toppler plume" is a meaningless phrase. The plume, should it develop, may well be just east of the UK, as is so often the case, but that's nothing to do with "toppling".



Stephen.

I hope it achieves outcome.

"Shower" refers to something completely different to the actual processes occurring within the cloud, but it an accepted way of expressing what is seen to happen.

As with my phrase. I like it, you don't. That's not going to worry me. *))

PS Plumes really don't "develop to the east of us". You don't like the phrase "toppler plume" which describes the sequence of changes often seen on weather models in summer pretty well, but yet you keep saying this.

On Tue, 11 Jun 2013 06:15:27 -0700 (PDT), Dawlish
wrote:
Plumes really don't "develop to the east of us".

I think you'll find that warm plumes _do_ preferentially develop to
the east of the UK - due to topography, distribution of warm air over
Europe and the orientation of the airflow of the troposphere due to
that heat distribution.

--
Freddie
Bayston Hill
Shropshire
102m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
https://twitter.com/#!/BaystonHillWx for hourly reports

On Tuesday, June 11, 2013 2:15:27 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:


I hope it achieves outcome.



"Shower" refers to something completely different to the actual processes occurring within the cloud, but it an accepted way of expressing what is seen to happen.



As with my phrase. I like it, you don't. That's not going to worry me. *))



PS Plumes really don't "develop to the east of us". You don't like the phrase "toppler plume" which describes the sequence of changes often seen on weather models in summer pretty well, but yet you keep saying this.

=========

Half the battle in forecasting is clear communication. "Toppler plume" is used by nobody else on the planet and thus will not immediately be understood. Ergo it is a meaningless phrase. Moreover, it describes what you are trying to represent rather badly: cf the better use of "toppling high" (although not a favourite of mine), for example, during the winter, from which I presume you adapted your phrase.

I did not say that plumes "develop to the east of us" once, never mind "keep saying it".

Had a re-think about the 00UTC EC yet?

Stephen.

On Tuesday, June 11, 2013 2:27:50 PM UTC+1, Freddie wrote:
On Tue, 11 Jun 2013 06:15:27 -0700 (PDT), Dawlish

wrote:

Plumes really don't "develop to the east of us".



I think you'll find that warm plumes _do_ preferentially develop to

the east of the UK - due to topography, distribution of warm air over

Europe and the orientation of the airflow of the troposphere due to

that heat distribution.



--

Freddie

Bayston Hill

Shropshire

102m AMSL

http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/

https://twitter.com/#!/BaystonHillWx for hourly reports

I suppose so. Semantics again. The development of a plume can be thought of as taking place along it's journey. I had used the idea of "develop" as "To bring into being". You are correct, most pass to our East and therefore continue to develop to our east, however, we are talking here about models changing their forecast of the path of the plume from its first appearance. Hence "toppler".

It's