On Tuesday, June 11, 2013 2:27:50 PM UTC+1, Freddie wrote:


I think you'll find that warm plumes _do_ preferentially develop to

the east of the UK - due to topography, distribution of warm air over

Europe and the orientation of the airflow of the troposphere due to

that heat distribution.

========

Careful. You'll be schooled in how development occurs over France and the Low Countries, and thus *southeast* of the UK.

Stephen.

On Tuesday, June 11, 2013 2:50:12 PM UTC+1, Stephen Davenport wrote:

Had a re-think about the 00UTC EC yet?


======

I see you sort of did, sorry.

Apologies, all, for reply to self.

Stephen.

On Tuesday, June 11, 2013 2:50:12 PM UTC+1, Stephen Davenport wrote:
On Tuesday, June 11, 2013 2:15:27 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:





I hope it achieves outcome.







"Shower" refers to something completely different to the actual processes occurring within the cloud, but it an accepted way of expressing what is seen to happen.







As with my phrase. I like it, you don't. That's not going to worry me. *))







PS Plumes really don't "develop to the east of us". You don't like the phrase "toppler plume" which describes the sequence of changes often seen on weather models in summer pretty well, but yet you keep saying this.



=========



Half the battle in forecasting is clear communication. "Toppler plume" is used by nobody else on the planet and thus will not immediately be understood. Ergo it is a meaningless phrase. Moreover, it describes what you are trying to represent rather badly: cf the better use of "toppling high" (although not a favourite of mine), for example, during the winter, from which I presume you adapted your phrase.



I did not say that plumes "develop to the east of us" once, never mind "keep saying it".



Had a re-think about the 00UTC EC yet?



Stephen.

You know it now and so does everyone who has viewed. You'll only see it on here, probably, but when I use it again, you can either appreciate you know what I'm talking about it, or complain. *))

The right is always yours! I reserve the right to reply.

On Tuesday, June 11, 2013 2:50:12 PM UTC+1, Stephen Davenport wrote:
On Tuesday, June 11, 2013 2:15:27 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:





I hope it achieves outcome.







"Shower" refers to something completely different to the actual processes occurring within the cloud, but it an accepted way of expressing what is seen to happen.







As with my phrase. I like it, you don't. That's not going to worry me. *))







PS Plumes really don't "develop to the east of us". You don't like the phrase "toppler plume" which describes the sequence of changes often seen on weather models in summer pretty well, but yet you keep saying this.



=========



Half the battle in forecasting is clear communication. "Toppler plume" is used by nobody else on the planet and thus will not immediately be understood. Ergo it is a meaningless phrase. Moreover, it describes what you are trying to represent rather badly: cf the better use of "toppling high" (although not a favourite of mine), for example, during the winter, from which I presume you adapted your phrase.



I did not say that plumes "develop to the east of us" once, never mind "keep saying it".



Had a re-think about the 00UTC EC yet?



Stephen.

And there is the possibility again on the gfs 12z, being affected by a plume at 9 days! Probably an outlier.......

On Tuesday, June 11, 2013 5:39:09 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:

And there is the possibility again on the gfs 12z, being affected by a plume at 9 days! Probably an outlier.......

And the ECM now brings the plume into the SE at only 6/7 days! Could be some very warm weather for a short time early next week. The gfs wants to keep it a little away until later, but the models are coming round to a humid 25C+ at some time during next week.

I always find it amazing, how something shown at 10 days, can sometimes be then shown on a much shorter timescale only 24 hours later.

On Tuesday, June 11, 2013 9:35:00 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
On Tuesday, June 11, 2013 5:39:09 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:



And there is the possibility again on the gfs 12z, being affected by a plume at 9 days! Probably an outlier.......



And the ECM now brings the plume into the SE at only 6/7 days! Could be some very warm weather for a short time early next week. The gfs wants to keep it a little away until later, but the models are coming round to a humid 25C+ at some time during next week.



I always find it amazing, how something shown at 10 days, can sometimes be then shown on a much shorter timescale only 24 hours later.

And the warmth now look as if it will miss us. 2 days ago, on June 10th, this event started off being modelled as an escape of heat from North Africa which would head northwards across Spain and eventually spread across much of Western Europe, including the UK. Since then, the models have changed to show the plume actually heading to our east. It looks like a good modelling of the escape of heat, or warm plume, but over two days, the refinement of its direction has moved eastwards, i.e., as often happens in these situations at 10 days; it appears to have toppled East.

Shame, but there you go. It would have been interesting.

On Thursday, June 13, 2013 6:00:14 AM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
On Tuesday, June 11, 2013 9:35:00 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:

On Tuesday, June 11, 2013 5:39:09 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:







And there is the possibility again on the gfs 12z, being affected by a plume at 9 days! Probably an outlier.......







And the ECM now brings the plume into the SE at only 6/7 days! Could be some very warm weather for a short time early next week. The gfs wants to keep it a little away until later, but the models are coming round to a humid 25C+ at some time during next week.







I always find it amazing, how something shown at 10 days, can sometimes be then shown on a much shorter timescale only 24 hours later.



And the warmth now look as if it will miss us. 2 days ago, on June 10th, this event started off being modelled as an escape of heat from North Africa which would head northwards across Spain and eventually spread across much of Western Europe, including the UK. Since then, the models have changed to show the plume actually heading to our east. It looks like a good modelling of the escape of heat, or warm plume, but over two days, the refinement of its direction has moved eastwards, i.e., as often happens in these situations at 10 days; it appears to have toppled East.



Shame, but there you go. It would have been interesting.

Looks like it will turn very hot in Hungary - high 30Cs. I wonder if the region to the east is in for a repeat of 2010 - *killer heatwave* headlines on the way

On Thursday, June 13, 2013 12:44:44 PM UTC+1, Scott W wrote:
On Thursday, June 13, 2013 6:00:14 AM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:

On Tuesday, June 11, 2013 9:35:00 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:



On Tuesday, June 11, 2013 5:39:09 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:















And there is the possibility again on the gfs 12z, being affected by a plume at 9 days! Probably an outlier.......















And the ECM now brings the plume into the SE at only 6/7 days! Could be some very warm weather for a short time early next week. The gfs wants to keep it a little away until later, but the models are coming round to a humid 25C+ at some time during next week.















I always find it amazing, how something shown at 10 days, can sometimes be then shown on a much shorter timescale only 24 hours later.







And the warmth now look as if it will miss us. 2 days ago, on June 10th, this event started off being modelled as an escape of heat from North Africa which would head northwards across Spain and eventually spread across much of Western Europe, including the UK. Since then, the models have changed to show the plume actually heading to our east. It looks like a good modelling of the escape of heat, or warm plume, but over two days, the refinement of its direction has moved eastwards, i.e., as often happens in these situations at 10 days; it appears to have toppled East.







Shame, but there you go. It would have been interesting.



Looks like it will turn very hot in Hungary - high 30Cs. I wonder if the region to the east is in for a repeat of 2010 - *killer heatwave* headlines on the way

It's quite possible they will see some very high temperatures and the Daily Express could exaggerate anything. If it happens, you can bet your life that Piers will have predicted it.

On Thursday, June 13, 2013 12:44:44 PM UTC+1, Scott W wrote:
On Thursday, June 13, 2013 6:00:14 AM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:

On Tuesday, June 11, 2013 9:35:00 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:



On Tuesday, June 11, 2013 5:39:09 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:















And there is the possibility again on the gfs 12z, being affected by a plume at 9 days! Probably an outlier.......















And the ECM now brings the plume into the SE at only 6/7 days! Could be some very warm weather for a short time early next week. The gfs wants to keep it a little away until later, but the models are coming round to a humid 25C+ at some time during next week.















I always find it amazing, how something shown at 10 days, can sometimes be then shown on a much shorter timescale only 24 hours later.







And the warmth now look as if it will miss us. 2 days ago, on June 10th, this event started off being modelled as an escape of heat from North Africa which would head northwards across Spain and eventually spread across much of Western Europe, including the UK. Since then, the models have changed to show the plume actually heading to our east. It looks like a good modelling of the escape of heat, or warm plume, but over two days, the refinement of its direction has moved eastwards, i.e., as often happens in these situations at 10 days; it appears to have toppled East.







Shame, but there you go. It would have been interesting.



Looks like it will turn very hot in Hungary - high 30Cs. I wonder if the region to the east is in for a repeat of 2010 - *killer heatwave* headlines on the way

gfs 12z would have us believe that the heat will clip the SE. It is so interesting watching the models struggling with the path of the first North African plume of the year.

On Fri, 14 Jun 2013 11:39:22 -0700, Dawlish wrote:

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:O)

gfs 12z would have us believe that the heat will clip the SE. It is so
interesting watching the models struggling with the path of the first
North African plume of the year.

Toppler shift?