The Met Office not playing Beach Ball with their Long Range Forecast

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/w...gionalForecast

UK Outlook for Monday 1 Jul 2013 to Wednesday 10 Jul 2013:

Early patchy rain over northern and western parts of the UK will gradually spread southeastwards through Monday, drier and brighter weather following in its wake. Cloudier conditions with outbreaks of rain then follow for Tuesday, northwestern parts seeing the most persistent rain. Something of a northwest-southeast split then develops for the rest of the forecast period. To the northwest conditions then largely on the unsettled side with bands of rain and occasionally stronger winds, but also some drier periods with sunny spells between. Temperatures here around normal, but feeling pleasant in sunshine. To the southeast, whilst the occasional outbreak of rain or drizzle is still possible, drier, warmer and brighter conditions are expected to prevail. Here, maximum temperatures are expected to be above average during sunnier periods.
UK Outlook for Thursday 11 Jul 2013 to Thursday 25 Jul 2013:

With no particularly dominant weather type indicated for the middle part of July this period is considered, on balance, to most likely be characterized by fairly typical British summer weather. As such some fine, dry and pleasant days are expected, especially to the south and east. Temperatures are then most likely to often be close to average, though conditions will feel pleasantly warm during spells of sunnier weather.

Issued at: 0400 on Wed 26 Jun 2013

On Wednesday, June 26, 2013 12:43:21 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
On Tuesday, June 25, 2013 10:38:43 PM UTC+1, Scott W wrote:


The Azores high linking to the Russian high. A 1995-style summer. Interesting...



That's more runs with both models pointing to a similar outcome. See if this is there this evening and if we see consistency, summer will be on its way - and if this set-up establishes itself, as you say Scott, persistence could lead to a n extended warm spell.



Lots of "ifs", but I think we deserve a decent summer!

Hard to believe the JMA tonight. It's probably an outlier, but it's so disruptive that I have to take it into account. The probabilities of summer at T+240 are still below 80%, for me.

On Wednesday, June 26, 2013 9:32:54 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
On Wednesday, June 26, 2013 12:43:21 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:

On Tuesday, June 25, 2013 10:38:43 PM UTC+1, Scott W wrote:





The Azores high linking to the Russian high. A 1995-style summer. Interesting...







That's more runs with both models pointing to a similar outcome. See if this is there this evening and if we see consistency, summer will be on its way - and if this set-up establishes itself, as you say Scott, persistence could lead to a n extended warm spell.







Lots of "ifs", but I think we deserve a decent summer!



Hard to believe the JMA tonight. It's probably an outlier, but it's so disruptive that I have to take it into account. The probabilities of summer at T+240 are still below 80%, for me.

It was sensible not to jump to a forecast. The 12z ECM at 10 days is pretty awful and nothing like yesterday's charts. gfs is hanging onto summer, but other models aren't as keen.

On Thursday, June 27, 2013 8:38:40 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
On Wednesday, June 26, 2013 9:32:54 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote: On Wednesday, June 26, 2013 12:43:21 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote: On Tuesday, June 25, 2013 10:38:43 PM UTC+1, Scott W wrote: The Azores high linking to the Russian high. A 1995-style summer. Interesting... That's more runs with both models pointing to a similar outcome. See if this is there this evening and if we see consistency, summer will be on its way - and if this set-up establishes itself, as you say Scott, persistence could lead to a n extended warm spell. Lots of "ifs", but I think we deserve a decent summer! Hard to believe the JMA tonight. It's probably an outlier, but it's so disruptive that I have to take it into account. The probabilities of summer at T+240 are still below 80%, for me. It was sensible not to jump to a forecast. The 12z ECM at 10 days is pretty awful and nothing like yesterday's charts. gfs is hanging onto summer, but other models aren't as keen.

I wonder if the 'decent spell' will just keep getting shunted further and further into July and then August?

On Friday, June 28, 2013 5:39:57 PM UTC+1, Scott W wrote:
On Thursday, June 27, 2013 8:38:40 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:

On Wednesday, June 26, 2013 9:32:54 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote: On Wednesday, June 26, 2013 12:43:21 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote: On Tuesday, June 25, 2013 10:38:43 PM UTC+1, Scott W wrote: The Azores high linking to the Russian high. A 1995-style summer. Interesting... That's more runs with both models pointing to a similar outcome. See if this is there this evening and if we see consistency, summer will be on its way - and if this set-up establishes itself, as you say Scott, persistence could lead to a n extended warm spell. Lots of "ifs", but I think we deserve a decent summer! Hard to believe the JMA tonight. It's probably an outlier, but it's so disruptive that I have to take it into account. The probabilities of summer at T+240 are still below 80%, for me. It was sensible not to jump to a forecast. The 12z ECM at 10 days is pretty awful and nothing like yesterday's charts. gfs is hanging onto summer, but other models aren't as keen.



I wonder if the 'decent spell' will just keep getting shunted further and further into July and then August?

I dunno, but see what the ECM shows tonight. The gfs and its ensembles have shown settled and warm conditions at T+240 all day and other models keep flirting with that scenario, including the ECM, but each keeps pulling away from it before consistency sets in.