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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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Here is a summary of the latest NWP output, for noon (GMT) on Wednesday.
Issued 0557z, 27/09/03. ECMWF: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif Low pressure lies to the west of Biscay, bringing SE'lies and easterlies over England, Ireland and Wales. Scotland lies under a ridge, with lighter winds. Light southerlies move over England and Wales at T+144, as the Biscay low fills in situ. Northern Ireland lies under SE'lies, with southerlies and SW'lies for Scotland. By T+168 a trough covers the UK, with westerlies and NW'lies. MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html Unavailable at time of issue. GFS: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1081.gif As with the ECM run, much of the UK lies under easterlies from a low to the SW. The easterlies continue at T+120, with 850hPa temperatures ranging from +3C over northern Scotland to +7C over southern England. The UK lies under a col at T+144, before a low near Iceland moves SE'wards as the Atlantic high ridges towards Greenland. Moderate NW'lies and NNW'lies cover the UK as a result. GEM: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1201.gif Low pressure lies to the SW, much like the other runs. This time easterlies and SE'lies cover the whole of the UK, with a ridge further north. The low fills in situ at T+120, with easterlies and SE'lies persisting over the British Isles. 850hPa temperatures range from +4C over the far north of Scotland to +8C over Kent. By T+144 low pressure covers Ireland, with southerlies and SSE'lies over much of the UK. JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html The Japanese run also shows easterlies and SE'lies for the UK, with 850hPa temperatures from +4C over Scotland and Northern Ireland to +8C over Kent. The low splits in two at T+144, with the nearest to the UK being over Cornwall. Southerlies and easterlies continue to cover the UK, but by T+168 westerlies and NW'lies move over the British Isles, with low pressure to the west of southern Norway. Model overlay charts (GEM/GFS/JMA): http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da.../ens/pslv.html The T+108 chart shows two runs pointing to a low to the SW or WSW, with the other run having a weak ridge there instead. In summary, today's runs all agree on a low to the SW for Wednesday, with easterlies and/or SE'lies as a result. Beyond that, it looks likely that high pressure will ridge towards Greenland, forcing the Icelandic low SE'wards and bringing winds from the north or NW for many as the weekend approaches. |
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