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Old September 27th 03, 06:57 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Today's model interpretation (27/09/03)

Here is a summary of the latest NWP output, for noon (GMT) on Wednesday.
Issued 0557z, 27/09/03.

ECMWF: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif
Low pressure lies to the west of Biscay, bringing SE'lies and easterlies
over England, Ireland and Wales. Scotland lies under a ridge, with lighter
winds. Light southerlies move over England and Wales at T+144, as the Biscay
low fills in situ. Northern Ireland lies under SE'lies, with southerlies and
SW'lies for Scotland. By T+168 a trough covers the UK, with westerlies and
NW'lies.

MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html
Unavailable at time of issue.

GFS: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1081.gif
As with the ECM run, much of the UK lies under easterlies from a low to the
SW. The easterlies continue at T+120, with 850hPa temperatures ranging from
+3C over northern Scotland to +7C over southern England. The UK lies under a
col at T+144, before a low near Iceland moves SE'wards as the Atlantic high
ridges towards Greenland. Moderate NW'lies and NNW'lies cover the UK as a
result.

GEM: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1201.gif
Low pressure lies to the SW, much like the other runs. This time easterlies
and SE'lies cover the whole of the UK, with a ridge further north. The low
fills in situ at T+120, with easterlies and SE'lies persisting over the
British Isles. 850hPa temperatures range from +4C over the far north of
Scotland to +8C over Kent. By T+144 low pressure covers Ireland, with
southerlies and SSE'lies over much of the UK.

JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html
The Japanese run also shows easterlies and SE'lies for the UK, with 850hPa
temperatures from +4C over Scotland and Northern Ireland to +8C over Kent.
The low splits in two at T+144, with the nearest to the UK being over
Cornwall. Southerlies and easterlies continue to cover the UK, but by T+168
westerlies and NW'lies move over the British Isles, with low pressure to the
west of southern Norway.

Model overlay charts (GEM/GFS/JMA):
http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da.../ens/pslv.html
The T+108 chart shows two runs pointing to a low to the SW or WSW, with the
other run having a weak ridge there instead.

In summary, today's runs all agree on a low to the SW for Wednesday, with
easterlies and/or SE'lies as a result. Beyond that, it looks likely that
high pressure will ridge towards Greenland, forcing the Icelandic low
SE'wards and bringing winds from the north or NW for many as the weekend
approaches.



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