I am referring to the lack of them.
We are about to break the record in recent years for the latest hurricane occurrence in the season. There still has not been one despite at least 3 people on this ng in the past few weeks saying they are about to break out.

The latest since 1995 was Hurricane Gustav 8-12 Sep 2002. Only 4 hurricanes that year.
The records go back actually to 1851.
Info available online at
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/index.php

Interestingly there was Hurricane Alice as the latest/earliest 30 Dec 1954.
A cross-season storm.

Seasonal forecasting in the tropical Atlantic is apparently struggling as it is in the mid and high lats.
NOAA and UKMO forecasts could still come good but it is looking less likely.
Their most likely forecast:
14 Trop. storms
9 Hurricanes
although they do put quite generous error bars on those.

Clearly there has just been too much wind shear for optimum sustenance.
ENSO neutral and cold anom in the east tropical Atlantic have not helped.
I can't believe Saharan dust is still playing a role.

All in all the models have not predicted too well a season ahead.

Len
Wembury

On Thursday, September 5, 2013 5:21:31 PM UTC+1, Len Wood wrote:
I am referring to the lack of them.

We are about to break the record in recent years for the latest hurricane occurrence in the season. There still has not been one despite at least 3 people on this ng in the past few weeks saying they are about to break out.



The latest since 1995 was Hurricane Gustav 8-12 Sep 2002. Only 4 hurricanes that year.

The records go back actually to 1851.

Info available online at

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/index.php



Interestingly there was Hurricane Alice as the latest/earliest 30 Dec 1954.

A cross-season storm.



Seasonal forecasting in the tropical Atlantic is apparently struggling as it is in the mid and high lats.

NOAA and UKMO forecasts could still come good but it is looking less likely.

Their most likely forecast:

14 Trop. storms

9 Hurricanes

although they do put quite generous error bars on those.



Clearly there has just been too much wind shear for optimum sustenance.

ENSO neutral and cold anom in the east tropical Atlantic have not helped.

I can't believe Saharan dust is still playing a role.



All in all the models have not predicted too well a season ahead.



Len

Wembury

Well, I did say that today!

Always best to judge a forecast at outcome, Len. *))

PS Seasonal forecasting is always "struggling". In fact, in our latitudes, it is next to useless. However, Hurricane season forecasting is getting more accurate, though last year's NOAA forecast underplayed the eventual outcome. NOAA have a detailed breakdown of recent seasons he

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...-archive.shtml

We are currently in a time of increased Atlantic hurricane activity, which started in 1995 - according to Chris Landsea's analysis. You can see that the period 1971-1995 had far fewer hurricanes. I don't see the lack of tropical storms and hurricanes, so far, in 2013, as being anything particularly unusual.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...mmary_2012.pdf

NOAA are not the only source for prediction, however and I've been following the forecasts of Klotchbach and Gray over the last few years:

http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/f...13/aug2013.pdf

Worth some time spent reading the info; sorry there's a lot. It's very interesting.

On Thursday, September 5, 2013 5:21:31 PM UTC+1, Len Wood wrote:

Clearly there has just been too much wind shear for optimum sustenance.

ENSO neutral and cold anom in the east tropical Atlantic have not helped.

I can't believe Saharan dust is still playing a role.

=========

Wind shear is certainly one, and probably the major, factor.

SSTs across the tropical Atlantic are plenty high enough for hurricane formation. There are patches of negative anomaly but even so not such that SSTs are below 27 deg C, and mostly the Atlantic is warmer than average.

Another factor may be that air temperatures have been higher than normal, reducing instability. Add to that rather weak tropical waves and *possibly* continued intrusions of dry and dusty Saharan air and you have poor conditions for hurricanes.

Here is some industry opinion in Bloomberg:

http://bit.ly/12Vd0cJ

Meanwhile Tropical Depression Gabrielle has formed today near Hispaniola. There are three other areas of interest in the Atlantic / Gulf of Mexico, albeit with the two in the Atlantic having low development risk: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/


Stephen.

On Thursday, September 5, 2013 5:56:54 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
On Thursday, September 5, 2013 5:21:31 PM UTC+1, Len Wood wrote:

I am referring to the lack of them.



We are about to break the record in recent years for the latest hurricane occurrence in the season. There still has not been one despite at least 3 people on this ng in the past few weeks saying they are about to break out.







The latest since 1995 was Hurricane Gustav 8-12 Sep 2002. Only 4 hurricanes that year.



The records go back actually to 1851.



Info available online at



http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/index.php







Interestingly there was Hurricane Alice as the latest/earliest 30 Dec 1954.



A cross-season storm.







Seasonal forecasting in the tropical Atlantic is apparently struggling as it is in the mid and high lats.



NOAA and UKMO forecasts could still come good but it is looking less likely.



Their most likely forecast:



14 Trop. storms



9 Hurricanes



although they do put quite generous error bars on those.







Clearly there has just been too much wind shear for optimum sustenance.



ENSO neutral and cold anom in the east tropical Atlantic have not helped.



I can't believe Saharan dust is still playing a role.







All in all the models have not predicted too well a season ahead.







Len



Wembury



Well, I did say that today!



Always best to judge a forecast at outcome, Len. *))



PS Seasonal forecasting is always "struggling". In fact, in our latitudes, it is next to useless. However, Hurricane season forecasting is getting more accurate, though last year's NOAA forecast underplayed the eventual outcome. NOAA have a detailed breakdown of recent seasons he



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...-archive.shtml



We are currently in a time of increased Atlantic hurricane activity, which started in 1995 - according to Chris Landsea's analysis. You can see that the period 1971-1995 had far fewer hurricanes. I don't see the lack of tropical storms and hurricanes, so far, in 2013, as being anything particularly unusual.



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...mmary_2012.pdf



NOAA are not the only source for prediction, however and I've been following the forecasts of Klotchbach and Gray over the last few years:



http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/f...13/aug2013.pdf



Worth some time spent reading the info; sorry there's a lot. It's very interesting.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Yes Paul.
I am interested in why you thought the Atlantic hurricane season was about to get under way.
You should post with reasons.

I am disappointed with Gabrielle. Such a nice girl.
But only a tropical depression and forecast to dissipate in 36 hr.

Len
Wembury

On Thursday, September 5, 2013 7:19:13 PM UTC+1, Len Wood wrote:
On Thursday, September 5, 2013 5:56:54 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:

On Thursday, September 5, 2013 5:21:31 PM UTC+1, Len Wood wrote:



I am referring to the lack of them.







We are about to break the record in recent years for the latest hurricane occurrence in the season. There still has not been one despite at least 3 people on this ng in the past few weeks saying they are about to break out.















The latest since 1995 was Hurricane Gustav 8-12 Sep 2002. Only 4 hurricanes that year.







The records go back actually to 1851.







Info available online at







http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/index.php















Interestingly there was Hurricane Alice as the latest/earliest 30 Dec 1954.







A cross-season storm.















Seasonal forecasting in the tropical Atlantic is apparently struggling as it is in the mid and high lats.







NOAA and UKMO forecasts could still come good but it is looking less likely.







Their most likely forecast:







14 Trop. storms







9 Hurricanes







although they do put quite generous error bars on those.















Clearly there has just been too much wind shear for optimum sustenance.







ENSO neutral and cold anom in the east tropical Atlantic have not helped.







I can't believe Saharan dust is still playing a role.















All in all the models have not predicted too well a season ahead.















Len







Wembury







Well, I did say that today!







Always best to judge a forecast at outcome, Len. *))







PS Seasonal forecasting is always "struggling". In fact, in our latitudes, it is next to useless. However, Hurricane season forecasting is getting more accurate, though last year's NOAA forecast underplayed the eventual outcome. NOAA have a detailed breakdown of recent seasons he







http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...-archive.shtml







We are currently in a time of increased Atlantic hurricane activity, which started in 1995 - according to Chris Landsea's analysis. You can see that the period 1971-1995 had far fewer hurricanes. I don't see the lack of tropical storms and hurricanes, so far, in 2013, as being anything particularly unusual.







http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...mmary_2012.pdf







NOAA are not the only source for prediction, however and I've been following the forecasts of Klotchbach and Gray over the last few years:







http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/f...13/aug2013.pdf







Worth some time spent reading the info; sorry there's a lot. It's very interesting.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Yes Paul.

I am interested in why you thought the Atlantic hurricane season was about to get under way.

You should post with reasons.

I am disappointed with Gabrielle. Such a nice girl.

But only a tropical a depression and forecast to dissipate in 36 hr.

Len

Wembury

My actual words wsere these:

The Hurricane season looks like it *may* be getting under way, so *perhaps* the absence of an Atlantic flow will soon be remedied and the Westerlies are on holiday, rather than dead!

And I linked to the NHC site directly below my comment on the other thread. I thought that would be quite enough explanation of why I was thinking that. I don't think you can have seen the link:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

After Gabrielle showing that conditions are probably conducive enough for hurricane formation, I'm now speculating (for the first time this year) that the first one of the season *perhaps* won't be long in forming. *))

(Disclaimer. That is not a forecast and I may well be wrong!)

Did you read the information I posted?

BTW Who were the other two people who have said the hurricane season was about to get under way in the last few weeks? I don't remember anyone speculating at all - mainly as there has been little to speculate about.

On Thu, 5 Sep 2013 09:21:31 -0700 (PDT)
Len Wood wrote:

I am referring to the lack of them.
We are about to break the record in recent years for the latest
hurricane occurrence in the season. There still has not been one
despite at least 3 people on this ng in the past few weeks saying
they are about to break out.

The latest since 1995 was Hurricane Gustav 8-12 Sep 2002. Only 4
hurricanes that year. The records go back actually to 1851.
Info available online at
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/index.php

Interestingly there was Hurricane Alice as the latest/earliest 30 Dec
1954. A cross-season storm.

Something weird about that data. One Alice in 1953 and two more in
1954, nether having the same track as 1953? Also other storms on the
'54 map have same names as '53.

Anyway, a storm at the end of December, lasting into January, isn't
cross-season, just cross-year.


Seasonal forecasting in the tropical Atlantic is apparently
struggling as it is in the mid and high lats. NOAA and UKMO forecasts
could still come good but it is looking less likely. Their most
likely forecast: 14 Trop. storms
9 Hurricanes
although they do put quite generous error bars on those.

Clearly there has just been too much wind shear for optimum
sustenance. ENSO neutral and cold anom in the east tropical Atlantic
have not helped. I can't believe Saharan dust is still playing a role.

Any cold anomaly in E Atlantic looks too far south to bother storm
formation. Not sure that ENSO-neutral should have adverse effect though
I recall that an EL Nino tends to drive Atlantic storms away from USA
and increase shear.

Why wouldn't Saharan dust be playing a role? Latest depression in
eastern Atlantic formed whilst over West Africa and may well have
whipped up some dust on its northern flank to carry along with it.


All in all the models have not predicted too well a season ahead.


Season is only a few weeks past half-way point.



--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks.
'To do is to be' - Nietzsche
'To be is to do' - Kant
'Do be do be do' - Sinatra

On 05/09/13 17:56, Dawlish wrote:


We are currently in a time of increased Atlantic hurricane activity, which started in 1995 - according to Chris Landsea's analysis. You can see that the period 1971-1995 had far fewer hurricanes. I don't see the lack of tropical storms and hurricanes, so far, in 2013, as being anything particularly unusual.


It is unusual for the activity to be so suppressed like this in a non-El
Nino year. Not just in the Atlantic either but virtually the whole
Northern hemisphere.

On Thursday, September 5, 2013 8:21:23 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
On Thursday, September 5, 2013 7:19:13 PM UTC+1, Len Wood wrote:

On Thursday, September 5, 2013 5:56:54 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:



On Thursday, September 5, 2013 5:21:31 PM UTC+1, Len Wood wrote:


I am referring to the lack of them.
We are about to break the record in recent years for the latest hurricane occurrence in the season. There still has not been one despite at least 3 people on this ng in the past few weeks saying they are about to break out.
The latest since 1995 was Hurricane Gustav 8-12 Sep 2002. Only 4 hurricanes that year.
Seasonal forecasting in the tropical Atlantic is apparently struggling as it is in the mid and high lats.
NOAA and UKMO forecasts could still come good but it is looking less likely.
Their most likely forecast:

14 Trop. storms
9 Hurricanes
although they do put quite generous error bars on those.
Clearly there has just been too much wind shear for optimum sustenance.
ENSO neutral and cold anom in the east tropical Atlantic have not helped.
All in all the models have not predicted too well a season ahead.
Len
Well, I did say that today!
Always best to judge a forecast at outcome, Len. *))

PS Seasonal forecasting is always "struggling". In fact, in our latitudes, it is next to useless. However, Hurricane season forecasting is getting more accurate, though last year's NOAA forecast underplayed the eventual outcome. NOAA have a detailed breakdown of recent seasons he
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...-archive.shtml
And I linked to the NHC site directly below my comment on the other thread. I thought that would be quite enough explanation of why I was thinking that. I don't think you can have seen the link:



http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/



After Gabrielle showing that conditions are probably conducive enough for hurricane formation, I'm now speculating (for the first time this year) that the first one of the season *perhaps* won't be long in forming. *))



(Disclaimer. That is not a forecast and I may well be wrong!)



Did you read the information I posted?



BTW Who were the other two people who have said the hurricane season was about to get under way in the last few weeks? I don't remember anyone speculating at all - mainly as there has been little to speculate about.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jim Cannon and Dawlish. The usual culprits. ;-)
Jim colourfully posted 'It's all about to crank up big time' after my original thread of Aug 15th. That thread soon degenerated into a slanging match.

Also, Adam Lea mailed me saying that ' There is no significant correlation between activity early in the season and total activity'.
I have not done the stats myself but NOAA don't seem to agree with that.
They downgraded their prediction slightly in August:
'Changes from the pre-season outlook issued May 23rd:
All of the predicted ranges of activity have been lowered and narrowed slightly from the May outlook. Three reasons for these changes to the ranges a 1) No hurricanes or major hurricanes formed during June and July; 2) The probability of La Niña developing during August-October is now low; and 3) Many models now have more conservative predictions of hurricane activity.'

I always keep an eye on the NHC site and I can't see anything there which says we are about to get hurricanes.

The number of hurricanes in a season is highly variable.
From 15 in 2005 to 3 in 1997 and 2009.

NOAA's yearly analysis of accumulated cyclone energy ACE since 1950 is interesting but it lumps Tropical Storms in with Hurricanes.
I have just posted about Hurricanes, sustained winds above 64 knots.

The graphic of ACE is here
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...mmary_2012.pdf
It shows high activity in the 50s and 60s. Low activity in 70s and 80s, then an increase again from 1995.
So no trend over the 60+ year period.

Anyway, back to the difficulty in predicting the first hurricane and this
year' s total number.

The season still has time to produce a few. Statistically that is certain.

A number of reasons have been given as to why we have not had any thus far.
But why those suppressing conditions?
What is the global control?
What has produced the strange global circulation in the tropical atmosphere this year?

More modelling to do obviously.
Something is being overlooked.
ENSO neutral clearly makes seasonal forecasting more uncertain.

Len
Wembury

On Friday, September 6, 2013 3:30:59 PM UTC+1, Len Wood wrote:
On Thursday, September 5, 2013 8:21:23 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:

On Thursday, September 5, 2013 7:19:13 PM UTC+1, Len Wood wrote:



On Thursday, September 5, 2013 5:56:54 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:







On Thursday, September 5, 2013 5:21:31 PM UTC+1, Len Wood wrote:





I am referring to the lack of them.

We are about to break the record in recent years for the latest hurricane occurrence in the season. There still has not been one despite at least 3 people on this ng in the past few weeks saying they are about to break out.

The latest since 1995 was Hurricane Gustav 8-12 Sep 2002. Only 4 hurricanes that year.

Seasonal forecasting in the tropical Atlantic is apparently struggling as it is in the mid and high lats.

NOAA and UKMO forecasts could still come good but it is looking less likely.

Their most likely forecast:



14 Trop. storms

9 Hurricanes

although they do put quite generous error bars on those.

Clearly there has just been too much wind shear for optimum sustenance.

ENSO neutral and cold anom in the east tropical Atlantic have not helped.

All in all the models have not predicted too well a season ahead.

Len

Well, I did say that today!

Always best to judge a forecast at outcome, Len. *))



PS Seasonal forecasting is always "struggling". In fact, in our latitudes, it is next to useless. However, Hurricane season forecasting is getting more accurate, though last year's NOAA forecast underplayed the eventual outcome. NOAA have a detailed breakdown of recent seasons he

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...-archive.shtml

And I linked to the NHC site directly below my comment on the other thread. I thought that would be quite enough explanation of why I was thinking that. I don't think you can have seen the link:







http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/







After Gabrielle showing that conditions are probably conducive enough for hurricane formation, I'm now speculating (for the first time this year) that the first one of the season *perhaps* won't be long in forming. *))







(Disclaimer. That is not a forecast and I may well be wrong!)







Did you read the information I posted?







BTW Who were the other two people who have said the hurricane season was about to get under way in the last few weeks? I don't remember anyone speculating at all - mainly as there has been little to speculate about.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Jim Cannon and Dawlish. The usual culprits. ;-)

Jim colourfully posted 'It's all about to crank up big time' after my original thread of Aug 15th. That thread soon degenerated into a slanging match.



Also, Adam Lea mailed me saying that ' There is no significant correlation between activity early in the season and total activity'.

I have not done the stats myself but NOAA don't seem to agree with that.

They downgraded their prediction slightly in August:

'Changes from the pre-season outlook issued May 23rd:

All of the predicted ranges of activity have been lowered and narrowed slightly from the May outlook. Three reasons for these changes to the ranges a 1) No hurricanes or major hurricanes formed during June and July; 2) The probability of La Niña developing during August-October is now low; and 3) Many models now have more conservative predictions of hurricane activity.'



I always keep an eye on the NHC site and I can't see anything there which says we are about to get hurricanes.



The number of hurricanes in a season is highly variable.

From 15 in 2005 to 3 in 1997 and 2009.



NOAA's yearly analysis of accumulated cyclone energy ACE since 1950 is interesting but it lumps Tropical Storms in with Hurricanes.

I have just posted about Hurricanes, sustained winds above 64 knots.



The graphic of ACE is here

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...mmary_2012.pdf

It shows high activity in the 50s and 60s. Low activity in 70s and 80s, then an increase again from 1995.

So no trend over the 60+ year period.



Anyway, back to the difficulty in predicting the first hurricane and this

year' s total number.



The season still has time to produce a few. Statistically that is certain..



A number of reasons have been given as to why we have not had any thus far.

On 06/09/13 15:30, Len Wood wrote:
On Thursday, September 5, 2013 8:21:23 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
On Thursday, September 5, 2013 7:19:13 PM UTC+1, Len Wood wrote:

On Thursday, September 5, 2013 5:56:54 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:



On Thursday, September 5, 2013 5:21:31 PM UTC+1, Len Wood wrote:


I am referring to the lack of them.
We are about to break the record in recent years for the latest hurricane occurrence in the season. There still has not been one despite at least 3 people on this ng in the past few weeks saying they are about to break out.
The latest since 1995 was Hurricane Gustav 8-12 Sep 2002. Only 4 hurricanes that year.
Seasonal forecasting in the tropical Atlantic is apparently struggling as it is in the mid and high lats.
NOAA and UKMO forecasts could still come good but it is looking less likely.
Their most likely forecast:

14 Trop. storms
9 Hurricanes
although they do put quite generous error bars on those.
Clearly there has just been too much wind shear for optimum sustenance.
ENSO neutral and cold anom in the east tropical Atlantic have not helped.
All in all the models have not predicted too well a season ahead.
Len
Well, I did say that today!
Always best to judge a forecast at outcome, Len. *))

PS Seasonal forecasting is always "struggling". In fact, in our latitudes, it is next to useless. However, Hurricane season forecasting is getting more accurate, though last year's NOAA forecast underplayed the eventual outcome. NOAA have a detailed breakdown of recent seasons he
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...-archive.shtml
And I linked to the NHC site directly below my comment on the other thread. I thought that would be quite enough explanation of why I was thinking that. I don't think you can have seen the link:



http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/



After Gabrielle showing that conditions are probably conducive enough for hurricane formation, I'm now speculating (for the first time this year) that the first one of the season *perhaps* won't be long in forming. *))



(Disclaimer. That is not a forecast and I may well be wrong!)



Did you read the information I posted?



BTW Who were the other two people who have said the hurricane season was about to get under way in the last few weeks? I don't remember anyone speculating at all - mainly as there has been little to speculate about.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jim Cannon and Dawlish. The usual culprits. ;-)
Jim colourfully posted 'It's all about to crank up big time' after my original thread of Aug 15th. That thread soon degenerated into a slanging match.

Also, Adam Lea mailed me saying that ' There is no significant correlation between activity early in the season and total activity'.
I have not done the stats myself but NOAA don't seem to agree with that.
They downgraded their prediction slightly in August:
'Changes from the pre-season outlook issued May 23rd:
All of the predicted ranges of activity have been lowered and narrowed slightly from the May outlook. Three reasons for these changes to the ranges a 1) No hurricanes or major hurricanes formed during June and July; 2) The probability of La Niña developing during August-October is now low; and 3) Many models now have more conservative predictions of hurricane activity.'


I still stand by that statement, assuming you define "early in the
season" as June and July.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/G7.html