Graham Easterling wrote:


Even if the low does develop into a real rip-snorter for Sun night/Mon
morning it won't generate any swell of significance. It's much too small a
feature and won't really wind up until it gets close to the British Isles.
It'll produce very rough wind-generated seas in the Channel, though. The
swell that'll affect Cornwall is being generated by the much larger and
slower-moving parent low that's already quite a deep feature centred just
NE of Newfoundland.

Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.

That's why I'm hoping the wind doesn't increase too much until after the
large swell arrives, there may be some quite spectacular surfing waves on the
north Cornwall coast where the wind's offshore (E.g. Sennen, Harlyn) on
Sunday. Apart from the height of the swell, the period will be close to 20
secs.

Theres quite a fair sized area to the WSW of Ireland (in newspaper jargon "an
area 4 times the size of Wales") forecast to have swells in excess of 40' on
Saturday.

In the meantime http://www.streamdays.com/camera/vie..._beach_surfcam

Graham

I'm beginning to wonder if the low will deepen as much as the models have been
predicting. At 1000z today it appears to be a very small feature with a central
pressure of about 999 mb. It has to deepen by 22 mb in 14 hours to get to the
situation predicted in the Met Office 24-hour prog for 00z tonight. It might
still do it but it hasn't shown a lot of deepening so far. As always, the devil
is going to be in the detail.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.

On Sunday, 27 October 2013 10:25:46 UTC, Norman wrote:
Graham Easterling wrote:





Even if the low does develop into a real rip-snorter for Sun night/Mon

morning it won't generate any swell of significance. It's much too small a

feature and won't really wind up until it gets close to the British Isles.

It'll produce very rough wind-generated seas in the Channel, though. The

swell that'll affect Cornwall is being generated by the much larger and

slower-moving parent low that's already quite a deep feature centred just

NE of Newfoundland.



Norman Lynagh

Tideswell, Derbyshire

303m a.s.l.



That's why I'm hoping the wind doesn't increase too much until after the

large swell arrives, there may be some quite spectacular surfing waves on the

north Cornwall coast where the wind's offshore (E.g. Sennen, Harlyn) on

Sunday. Apart from the height of the swell, the period will be close to 20

secs.



Theres quite a fair sized area to the WSW of Ireland (in newspaper jargon "an

area 4 times the size of Wales") forecast to have swells in excess of 40' on

Saturday.



In the meantime http://www.streamdays.com/camera/vie..._beach_surfcam



Graham



I'm beginning to wonder if the low will deepen as much as the models have been

predicting. At 1000z today it appears to be a very small feature with a central

pressure of about 999 mb. It has to deepen by 22 mb in 14 hours to get to the

situation predicted in the Met Office 24-hour prog for 00z tonight. It might

still do it but it hasn't shown a lot of deepening so far. As always, the devil

is going to be in the detail.



--

Norman Lynagh

Tideswell, Derbyshire

303m a.s.l.

Well I'm hoping that in the time honoured traditions of the days of Elf 'n' safety and AGW that UKMO as usual has tripped on LSD which then invoked the 'coloured warning; system.

Hmm 'coloured warning system. Sort of smacks of the 'deep south' back in the days of the Civil Rights movement!

On 2013-10-27 10:25:46 +0000, Norman said:

Graham Easterling wrote:


Even if the low does develop into a real rip-snorter for Sun night/Mon
morning it won't generate any swell of significance. It's much too small a
feature and won't really wind up until it gets close to the British Isles.
It'll produce very rough wind-generated seas in the Channel, though. The
swell that'll affect Cornwall is being generated by the much larger and
slower-moving parent low that's already quite a deep feature centred just
NE of Newfoundland.

Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.

That's why I'm hoping the wind doesn't increase too much until after the
large swell arrives, there may be some quite spectacular surfing waves on the
north Cornwall coast where the wind's offshore (E.g. Sennen, Harlyn) on
Sunday. Apart from the height of the swell, the period will be close to 20
secs.

Theres quite a fair sized area to the WSW of Ireland (in newspaper jargon "an
area 4 times the size of Wales") forecast to have swells in excess of 40' on
Saturday.

In the meantime http://www.streamdays.com/camera/vie..._beach_surfcam

Graham

I'm beginning to wonder if the low will deepen as much as the models have been
predicting. At 1000z today it appears to be a very small feature with a central
pressure of about 999 mb. It has to deepen by 22 mb in 14 hours to get to the
situation predicted in the Met Office 24-hour prog for 00z tonight. It might
still do it but it hasn't shown a lot of deepening so far. As always, the devil
is going to be in the detail.

In which case, the less it deepens the faster it will cross the country.

The last prognosis I saw took the low centre on a line from Cornwall to
the Wash but only really deepening rapidly over East Anglia and the
North Sea, and the centre was in the North Sea by 0900 tomorrow morning.

In fact, looking at the GFS for this time next week (3rd Nov), we could
experience more widespread severe gales then.