Once again we have snowflakes falling in the group and we all know what that means don't we children?
-Well, I do (and that's all that matters.)

However there doesn't seem to be much showing on the Canadian chart by way of volcanic activity. Hence the delay in responding.

Today's North Atlantic is interesting, as those black fronts are firmly in place come Friday. (Time enough for the NAEFS to wake up I suppose.) BoM looks like Death come Friday noon and that has GOT to be two major tropicals by then.

So what's wrong with the Canadians?
Tornadoes, perhaps?
Or both.

An emergency response period has been declared by the Karo regency administration in North Sumatra following the Mount Sinabung’s eruptions in the last few days.

Mt. Sinabung volcano latest eruption took place on Tuesday at around 2:30 p..m. local time when the volcano sent a plume of smoke 3-kilometers into the air. Eruption lasted around 20 minutes and was even heard in Berastagi, located around 15 km far.

At least 1,700 people have been evacuated from Simacem, Bekerah, Mardinding and Suka Meriah area.

Evacuated people are currently living in three evacuation centers in Payung, Tiga Nderket and Naman Teran districts.

http://www.disaster-report.com/

Iwou7ld have thought this sort of thing would attract more attention.
It must be the way I tell 'em.

On Thursday, 7 November 2013 19:20:18 UTC, Weatherlawyer wrote:
An emergency response period has been declared by the Karo regency administration in North Sumatra following the Mount Sinabung’s eruptions in the last few days.



Mt. Sinabung volcano latest eruption took place on Tuesday at around 2:30 p.m. local time when the volcano sent a plume of smoke 3-kilometers into the air. Eruption lasted around 20 minutes and was even heard in Berastagi, located around 15 km far.



At least 1,700 people have been evacuated from Simacem, Bekerah, Mardinding and Suka Meriah area.



Evacuated people are currently living in three evacuation centers in Payung, Tiga Nderket and Naman Teran districts.



http://www.disaster-report.com/



Iwou7ld have thought this sort of thing would attract more attention.

It must be the way I tell 'em.

On Thursday, 7 November 2013 19:17:23 UTC, Weatherlawyer wrote:

Once again snowflakes are falling in uk.sci.weather.
That generally means an heightened period of volcanic activity.
However, there isn't much showing on the Canadian chart by way of that
sort of thing. (Hence the delay in responding.)

Today's North Atlantic is interesting, as those black fronts are firmly
in place come Friday. (Time enough for the NAEFS to wake up I suppose.)
BoM looks like Death come Friday noon and that has GOT to be two major
tropical storms.

So what's wrong with the Canadians?
Tornadoes, perhaps?
Or both.
There is a lot of substance to the idea it will manifest as tornadic cells,
quite nasty ones at that. Most of the chart is anticyclonic with just the
one Low system intruding right where the Thunder/Instability is going to be.
Look at T+36 on he

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/..._pressure.html

An emergency response period has been declared by the Karo regency
administration in North Sumatra following the Mount Sinabung’s eruptions
in the last few days.

Mt. Sinabung erupted on Tuesday at around 2:30 p.m. local time
when the volcano sent a plume of smoke 3-kilometers into the air
Eruption lasted around 20 minutes and was even heard in Berastagi,
around 15 km away.

At least 1,700 people have been evacuated from Simacem, Bekerah,
Mardinding and Suka Meriah area.

http://www.disaster-report.com/

GMT Lead Lat Long Peak Wind

7 Nov, 18:00 0 hrs 10.6 N 127.0 E 170 knots Cat 5
8 Nov, 6:00 12 hrs 11.3 N 122.9 E 145 knots Cat 5
8 Nov, 18:00 24 hrs 12.1 N 118.6 E 135 knots Cat 4
9 Nov, 6:00 36 hrs 13.1 N 114.6 E 125 knots Cat 4
9 Nov, 18:00 48 hrs 14.3 N 111.0 E 110 knots Cat 3
10 Nov, 18:00 72 hrs 17.2 N 105.8 E 65 knots Cat 1

Bringing that back home a knot is just over 1.1 mile an hour and the Atlantic chart is showing significant decongestion as a parallel front out at T+84 today. (The vorticity being over by then apparently.) Let’s see if we can find a better Atlantic chart for when the super typhoon collapses:

11 Nov, 18:00 96 hrs 20.8 N 103.9 E 45 knots TS
12 Nov, 18:00 120 hrs 24.3 N 106.7 E 40 knots TS

Slightly better:
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_96hrbw.gif

One on here showing it going out to Central America at T+96 and finished by T+120 so the show is over on the 12th of November just like the tropical storm system monitors say.

This would be the one if it went out that far:

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Loops/?...select6=Script

But it goes the wrong way; back 56 charts (to 25 October from 7 Nov 2013, at the time of writing.)
Come back to it in a few days; huh?

Sheesh!

On Wednesday, 6 November 2013 14:56:12 UTC, Weatherlawyer wrote:

Tornadoes, perhaps?
Or both.

You know my trouble?

I'm too good for you lot:

"A mother and her one-year old son died when a tornado struck a village in Pikit, North Cotabato on Thursday afternoon.

Tornado also injured a six-year-old daughter, Inquirer News reported.

According to the municipal disaster risk reduction management council official, tornado hit their hut at 5 p.m. Tornado also damaged other five houses."

http://www.disaster-report.com/2013/...nes-kills.html

Want to know why?

Because you are wilfully ignorant and let this sort of thing happen when you have opportunity to help.

Well I think the doors will close on you soon. I wonder if I will be able to hear the gnashing of teeth through it.