I have posted a winter forecast on wordpress - the link of which is http://wp.me/p2VSmb-hY

I have tried to be as objective as possible, basing my findings on means and what has happened in the months of October and November.

Because it is based on data stretching back over 130 years to my local area it can only really by applied to this part of the south-east.

It is not a hopecast. As much as I like snow I am much less keen on the ever rising cost of heating fuel - so find I'm much more pragmatic about it. If it snows it snows.

For those that don't want to visit wordpress the body text follows:

Much has been printed in the tabloids over the past month or so that we are in for a severe winter. Not a week goes by without the Daily Express splashing that the ‘Worst winter EVER is on the way’. Just this morning the same rag told us that three months of ‘exceptionally cold’ weather are due. On closer inspection the story elaborated the scene with quotes from James Madden of Exacta Weather, one of the ‘experts’ feeding these fantastical stories.

Quite how Mr Madden and other experts arrive at these forecasts is a bit of a mystery. The mystery has deepened further since I decided to crunch a few numbers and try to predict what is in store for the months ahead. Looking at data for this area stretching back over 130 years to 1881 I decided to calculate a seasonal average and arrived at a final figure using singularities – basically looking at the weather patterns we’ve had during October and November.

Many professionals would scoff at this method of pattern-matching, so I’ve incorporated a couple of other ‘now’ factors and taken on board current variables such as sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and Pacific.

The figure I arrived at, taken as an average of the closest matching autumn periods, is a mean temperature of 4C with rainfall totalling 133mm over the months of December, January and February – that’s about a degree colder than average and 90% of average rainfall. The probability of a winter with a mean temperature of between 4C and 5C is 37% – the most likely outcome. With this in mind a winter in the form of 1986-87 is possible – though whether we would see the same extremes of temperature and snowfall that we experienced in January 1987 only time will tell.

Because this format can't cope with the formatting on usenet I have posted a full methodology of my forecast here.http://sdrv.ms/18sYo9N

Anyway, I hope some of you find it an interesting read. I'll be revisiting it on March 1. Best regards, Scott Whitehead

On Saturday, November 30, 2013 2:02:04 PM UTC, Scott W wrote:
I have posted a winter forecast on wordpress - the link of which is http://wp.me/p2VSmb-hY

Anyway, I hope some of you find it an interesting read. I'll be revisiting it on March 1. Best regards, Scott Whitehead

Super stuff Scott and a more balanced and realistic approach.

I keep dwelling on this March's cold record, being the coldest since 1962, with the infamous winter that followed, and have noticed a similarity in the charts during this November and 1962, but December may differ.

January 1987 was the most snow I have ever seen in Southend-on-Sea and I took loads of super 8 film at the time. I remember recording -7°C as a maximum on one day and about 3 feet of level snow. No two years are ever the same, but it will be interesting what pans out this winter.

Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"

Thanks Keith. Before July I also noticed the similarities with 1962 - but then July proved warm and sunny, completely unlike the wet, cold and miserable summer of 1962. Obviously November has reverted to 'being like 1962'... Who knows - another 1963 style winter could happen but on past form the chance is 1 per cent.

1987 is obviously my yardstick for cold in my lifetime - but I can remember the midnight forecast on R4 all those years ago predicting 10C for Saunton Sands - while East Anglia stayed below freezing

Jim Cannon wrote:
Thanks Keith. Before July I also noticed the similarities with 1962 - but then July proved warm and sunny, completely unlike the wet, cold and miserable summer of 1962. Obviously November has reverted to 'being like 1962'... Who knows - another 1963 style winter could happen but on past form the chance is 1 per cent.

1987 is obviously my yardstick for cold in my lifetime - but I can remember the midnight forecast on R4 all those years ago predicting 10C for Saunton Sands - while East Anglia stayed below freezing
-------------------------------------------------------------
It's right up there. Being older of course I have 1963 but 1987 was
something worthy of an Express headline.

On Saturday, November 30, 2013 2:02:04 PM UTC, Scott W wrote:
I have posted a winter forecast on wordpress - the link of which is http://wp.me/p2VSmb-hY



I have tried to be as objective as possible, basing my findings on means and what has happened in the months of October and November.



Because it is based on data stretching back over 130 years to my local area it can only really by applied to this part of the south-east.



It is not a hopecast. As much as I like snow I am much less keen on the ever rising cost of heating fuel - so find I'm much more pragmatic about it. If it snows it snows.



For those that don't want to visit wordpress the body text follows:



Much has been printed in the tabloids over the past month or so that we are in for a severe winter. Not a week goes by without the Daily Express splashing that the ‘Worst winter EVER is on the way’. Just this morning the same rag told us that three months of ‘exceptionally cold’ weather are due. On closer inspection the story elaborated the scene with quotes from James Madden of Exacta Weather, one of the ‘experts’ feeding these fantastical stories.



Quite how Mr Madden and other experts arrive at these forecasts is a bit of a mystery. The mystery has deepened further since I decided to crunch a few numbers and try to predict what is in store for the months ahead. Looking at data for this area stretching back over 130 years to 1881 I decided to calculate a seasonal average and arrived at a final figure using singularities – basically looking at the weather patterns we’ve had during October and November.



Many professionals would scoff at this method of pattern-matching, so I’ve incorporated a couple of other ‘now’ factors and taken on board current variables such as sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and Pacific.



The figure I arrived at, taken as an average of the closest matching autumn periods, is a mean temperature of 4C with rainfall totalling 133mm over the months of December, January and February – that’s about a degree colder than average and 90% of average rainfall. The probability of a winter with a mean temperature of between 4C and 5C is 37% – the most likely outcome. With this in mind a winter in the form of 1986-87 is possible – though whether we would see the same extremes of temperature and snowfall that we experienced in January 1987 only time will tell.



Because this format can't cope with the formatting on usenet I have posted a full methodology of my forecast here.http://sdrv.ms/18sYo9N



Anyway, I hope some of you find it an interesting read. I'll be revisiting it on March 1. Best regards, Scott Whitehead

At least there is a methodology! Good luck. I hope you'll return to it at the start of March and say what you think about it.

Dawlish wrote:
On Saturday, November 30, 2013 2:02:04 PM UTC, Scott W wrote:
I have posted a winter forecast on wordpress - the link of which is http://wp.me/p2VSmb-hY



I have tried to be as objective as possible, basing my findings on means and what has happened in the months of October and November.



Because it is based on data stretching back over 130 years to my local area it can only really by applied to this part of the south-east.



It is not a hopecast. As much as I like snow I am much less keen on the ever rising cost of heating fuel - so find I'm much more pragmatic about it. If it snows it snows.



For those that don't want to visit wordpress the body text follows:



Much has been printed in the tabloids over the past month or so that we are in for a severe winter. Not a week goes by without the Daily Express splashing that the ‘Worst winter EVER is on the way’. Just this morning the same rag told us that three months of ‘exceptionally cold’ weather are due. On closer inspection the story elaborated the scene with quotes from James Madden of Exacta Weather, one of the ‘experts’ feeding these fantastical stories.



Quite how Mr Madden and other experts arrive at these forecasts is a bit of a mystery. The mystery has deepened further since I decided to crunch a few numbers and try to predict what is in store for the months ahead. Looking at data for this area stretching back over 130 years to 1881 I decided to calculate a seasonal average and arrived at a final figure using singularities – basically looking at the weather patterns we’ve had during October and November.



Many professionals would scoff at this method of pattern-matching, so I’ve incorporated a couple of other ‘now’ factors and taken on board current variables such as sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and Pacific.



The figure I arrived at, taken as an average of the closest matching autumn periods, is a mean temperature of 4C with rainfall totalling 133mm over the months of December, January and February – that’s about a degree colder than average and 90% of average rainfall. The probability of a winter with a mean temperature of between 4C and 5C is 37% – the most likely outcome. With this in mind a winter in the form of 1986-87 is possible – though whether we would see the same extremes of temperature and snowfall that we experienced in January 1987 only time will tell.



Because this format can't cope with the formatting on usenet I have posted a full methodology of my forecast here.http://sdrv.ms/18sYo9N



Anyway, I hope some of you find it an interesting read. I'll be revisiting it on March 1. Best regards, Scott Whitehead

At least there is a methodology! Good luck. I hope you'll return to it at the start of March and say what you think about it.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Indeed. A great deal of effort gone into it which is very thought
provoking. It's difficult to know about pattern matching but we do know
that a particular short term set of events leads to the next set and
something must have led to them! It's just a question of what point in
time chaos kicks in.
Dave

On 2013-11-30 14:02:04 +0000, Scott W said:

I have posted a winter forecast on wordpress - the link of which is
http://wp.me/p2VSmb-hY

I have tried to be as objective as possible, basing my findings on
means and what has happened in the months of October and November.

Because it is based on data stretching back over 130 years to my local
area it can only really by applied to this part of the south-east.

It is not a hopecast. As much as I like snow I am much less keen on the
ever rising cost of heating fuel - so find I'm much more pragmatic
about it. If it snows it snows.

For those that don't want to visit wordpress the body text follows:

Much has been printed in the tabloids over the past month or so that we
are in for a severe winter. Not a week goes by without the Daily
Express splashing that the ‘Worst winter EVER is on the way’. Just this
morning the same rag told us that three months of ‘exceptionally cold’
weather are due. On closer inspection the story elaborated the scene
with quotes from James Madden of Exacta Weather, one of the ‘experts’
feeding these fantastical stories.

Quite how Mr Madden and other experts arrive at these forecasts is a
bit of a mystery. The mystery has deepened further since I decided to
crunch a few numbers and try to predict what is in store for the months
ahead. Looking at data for this area stretching back over 130 years to
1881 I decided to calculate a seasonal average and arrived at a final
figure using singularities – basically looking at the weather patterns
we’ve had during October and November.

Many professionals would scoff at this method of pattern-matching, so
I’ve incorporated a couple of other ‘now’ factors and taken on board
current variables such as sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and
Pacific.

The figure I arrived at, taken as an average of the closest matching
autumn periods, is a mean temperature of 4C with rainfall totalling
133mm over the months of December, January and February – that’s about
a degree colder than average and 90% of average rainfall. The
probability of a winter with a mean temperature of between 4C and 5C is
37% – the most likely outcome. With this in mind a winter in the form
of 1986-87 is possible – though whether we would see the same extremes
of temperature and snowfall that we experienced in January 1987 only
time will tell.

Because this format can't cope with the formatting on usenet I have
posted a full methodology of my forecast here.http://sdrv.ms/18sYo9N

Anyway, I hope some of you find it an interesting read. I'll be
revisiting it on March 1. Best regards, Scott Whitehead

Well, yes it was very interesting. I know a number of people who try
and use a similar method, with varying results - so full marks for
sticking your head above the parapet.

On 30/11/2013 14:57, Dave Cornwell wrote:
Jim Cannon wrote:
Thanks Keith. Before July I also noticed the similarities with 1962 -
but then July proved warm and sunny, completely unlike the wet, cold
and miserable summer of 1962. Obviously November has reverted to
'being like 1962'... Who knows - another 1963 style winter could
happen but on past form the chance is 1 per cent.

1987 is obviously my yardstick for cold in my lifetime - but I can
remember the midnight forecast on R4 all those years ago predicting
10C for Saunton Sands - while East Anglia stayed below freezing
-------------------------------------------------------------
It's right up there. Being older of course I have 1963 but 1987 was
something worthy of an Express headline.

Am i right in assuming that Jan 1987 was more severe (in terms of low
temperatures and snow depth) than Jan 2010. Was the significant snow as
widespread as Jan 2010?

In article ,
Adam Lea writes:

Am i right in assuming that Jan 1987 was more severe (in terms of
low temperatures and snow depth) than Jan 2010. Was the
significant snow as widespread as Jan 2010?

January 2010 is too recent for me to remember it too well in detail,
but Trevor Harley's site is a good starting point:

http://www.personal.dundee.ac.uk/~ta...in_january.htm

The cold spell in 1987 only lasted for a fortnight, but it included the
coldest day (in terms of maxima) over much of England (and probably
Wales too) of the 20th century (there have probably been colder days in
Scotland and Northern Ireland, where the east wing had a longer
sea-track). There was one very heavy snowfall that affected SE England
and probably East Anglia and the east Midlands too.
--
John Hall "He crams with cans of poisoned meat
The subjects of the King,
And when they die by thousands G.K.Chesterton:
Why, he laughs like anything." from "Song Against Grocers"

On Saturday, 30 November 2013 14:34:48 UTC, wrote:
On Saturday, November 30, 2013 2:02:04 PM UTC, Scott W wrote:

I have posted a winter forecast on wordpress - the link of which is http://wp.me/p2VSmb-hY



Anyway, I hope some of you find it an interesting read. I'll be revisiting it on March 1. Best regards, Scott Whitehead



Super stuff Scott and a more balanced and realistic approach.



I keep dwelling on this March's cold record, being the coldest since 1962, with the infamous winter that followed, and have noticed a similarity in the charts during this November and 1962, but December may differ.



January 1987 was the most snow I have ever seen in Southend-on-Sea and I took loads of super 8 film at the time. I remember recording -7°C as a maximum on one day and about 3 feet of level snow. No two years are ever the same, but it will be interesting what pans out this winter.



Keith (Southend)

http://www.southendweather.net

"Weather Home & Abroad"


Keith. What I remember most vividly about late Autumn 62 was fog and frost, ain't seen any fog yet although the air is infinitely much cleaner now.