Home |
Search |
Today's Posts |
![]() |
|
uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
Reply |
|
LinkBack | Thread Tools | Display Modes |
#11
![]() |
|||
|
|||
![]()
exmetman wrote:
You're correct more wishful thinking on my part! We did spend Christmas in Norway where we got plenty of snow. I'm now thinking of emigrating because the summers are good as well😠---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Brilliant the one time I was there in July. 28C in Trondheim! Dave |
#12
![]() |
|||
|
|||
![]()
In article ,
exmetman writes: You're correct more wishful thinking on my part! Well with the 12Z ECMWF it's back on the cards. ![]() -- John Hall "He crams with cans of poisoned meat The subjects of the King, And when they die by thousands G.K.Chesterton: Why, he laughs like anything." from "Song Against Grocers" |
#13
![]() |
|||
|
|||
![]()
On Friday, 3 January 2014 17:24:55 UTC, John Hall wrote:
In article , John Hall writes: In article 20140103111029.77cd8e04@home-1, Graham P Davis writes: On Fri, 3 Jan 2014 02:01:17 -0800 (PST) exmetman wrote: Hi The latest midnight run of the GFS model shows the first signs at T+312 (16 January) of a change in type from the current seemingly unending cyclonic SWl'y to a more of a blocked E'ly with high pressure building to the NE of Iceland and low pressure belt being pushed further south into central France. Colder air will obviously follow if this scenario pans out... Again? Will it be 2nd time lucky for an easterly forecast from GFS this winter? Since Christmas Eve, Matt Hugo has been pointing out that ECMWF was hinting at a splitting of the stratospheric vortex - not an SSW - and that this might produce a change of type. I don't normally put much faith out as far as T+312 - or indeed in the 06Z and 18Z GFS runs, which I understand don't have such a full data set as the 00Z and 12Z - but for once the 06Z is consistent with the 00Z in what it's showing. As early as T+192 the zonal train is shown as slowing down. However beyond T+240 the operational run is very much towards the cold end of the ensemble. snip The operational 12Z GFS run has reverted to keeping things zonal, which doesn't come as a great surprise. -- John Hall "He crams with cans of poisoned meat The subjects of the King, And when they die by thousands G.K.Chesterton: Why, he laughs like anything." from "Song Against Grocers" ecm 12z, shows a Scandi High... Keith (Southend) http://www.southendweather.net "Weather Home & Abroad" twitter: @LawnscienceEssx |
#14
![]() |
|||
|
|||
![]()
On Friday, January 3, 2014 7:35:33 PM UTC, exmetman wrote:
You're correct more wishful thinking on my part! We did spend Christmas in Norway where we got plenty of snow. I'm now thinking of emigrating because the summers are good as well😠In which case perhaps you could donate your retirement fund back to the UK government instead of letting us fund your cosy retirement there |
#15
![]() |
|||
|
|||
![]()
John Hall wrote:
In article , exmetman writes: You're correct more wishful thinking on my part! Well with the 12Z ECMWF it's back on the cards. ![]() ------------------------------------------------------------- Very few winters are entirely zonal. It's odds on that there'll be a pattern change before the month is over. The signs are starting to creep in even if it doesn't happen for three weeks. |
#16
![]() |
|||
|
|||
![]()
In article ,
Dave Cornwell writes: John Hall wrote: In article , exmetman writes: You're correct more wishful thinking on my part! Well with the 12Z ECMWF it's back on the cards. ![]() ------------------------------------------------------------- Very few winters are entirely zonal. It's odds on that there'll be a pattern change before the month is over. The signs are starting to creep in even if it doesn't happen for three weeks. Of course late January is often a favoured time for such a change. One thinks of 1947, 1956 and 1986. In 1947, if one looks at the chart for as late as 17th January, it's a classic zonal picture with little hint of what was to come: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/ar...0119470117.gif But by the 22nd high pressure had drifted north over the UK and established itself over Scandinavia: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/ar...0119470122.gif One wonders, if the current computer models were run with the old data for January 1947, would they have predicted the change. (Of course back then there wasn't any satellite data, which would handicap the models, though I suspect that if anything there was better surface data. They had the ocean weather ships, for one thing.) -- John Hall "He crams with cans of poisoned meat The subjects of the King, And when they die by thousands G.K.Chesterton: Why, he laughs like anything." from "Song Against Grocers" |
#17
![]() |
|||
|
|||
![]()
On Friday, 3 January 2014 21:55:31 UTC, John Hall wrote:
Of course late January is often a favoured time for such a change. One thinks of 1947, 1956 and 1986. In 1947, if one looks at the chart for as late as 17th January, it's a classic zonal picture with little hint of what was to come: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/ar...0119470117.gif But by the 22nd high pressure had drifted north over the UK and established itself over Scandinavia: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/ar...0119470122.gif One wonders, if the current computer models were run with the old data for January 1947, would they have predicted the change. (Of course back then there wasn't any satellite data, which would handicap the models, though I suspect that if anything there was better surface data. They had the ocean weather ships, for one thing.) -- John Hall "He crams with cans of poisoned meat Why do we punish ourselves every winter :-) Keith (Southend) http://www.southendweather.net "Weather Home & Abroad" twitter: @LawnscienceEssx |
#18
![]() |
|||
|
|||
![]()
On Friday, January 3, 2014 10:03:44 PM UTC, Keith (Southend)G wrote:
On Friday, 3 January 2014 21:55:31 UTC, John Hall wrote: Of course late January is often a favoured time for such a change. One thinks of 1947, 1956 and 1986. In 1947, if one looks at the chart for as late as 17th January, it's a classic zonal picture with little hint of what was to come: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/ar...0119470117.gif But by the 22nd high pressure had drifted north over the UK and established itself over Scandinavia: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/ar...0119470122.gif One wonders, if the current computer models were run with the old data for January 1947, would they have predicted the change. (Of course back then there wasn't any satellite data, which would handicap the models, though I suspect that if anything there was better surface data. They had the ocean weather ships, for one thing.) -- John Hall "He crams with cans of poisoned meat Why do we punish ourselves every winter :-) Keith (Southend) http://www.southendweather.net "Weather Home & Abroad" twitter: @LawnscienceEssx "We"? Punish"?? Heh! If you must! For me, it's looking at weather models and seeing when there is consistency and agreement enough to forecast with accuracy at 10 days. It matters not whether it is winter, or summer. However, if you look, for cold and snow in a UK winter, because you like cold and snow and want cold and snow, you will be disappointed much of the time with the model output and that disappointment may well "punish" you, but please don't include me in that masochistic way of looking at things! *)) Some chances of a change at 10 days, in the 00z ECM, but it's a zonal outlook on the 00z gfs. I'm still fairly happy about my forecast for the 12th, but the chances of it achieving outcome have not increased in the last two days. |
#19
![]() |
|||
|
|||
![]()
On Saturday, January 4, 2014 7:29:15 AM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Friday, January 3, 2014 10:03:44 PM UTC, Keith (Southend)G wrote: On Friday, 3 January 2014 21:55:31 UTC, John Hall wrote: Of course late January is often a favoured time for such a change. One thinks of 1947, 1956 and 1986. In 1947, if one looks at the chart for as late as 17th January, it's a classic zonal picture with little hint of what was to come: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/ar...0119470117.gif But by the 22nd high pressure had drifted north over the UK and established itself over Scandinavia: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/ar...0119470122.gif One wonders, if the current computer models were run with the old data for January 1947, would they have predicted the change. (Of course back then there wasn't any satellite data, which would handicap the models, though I suspect that if anything there was better surface data. They had the ocean weather ships, for one thing.) -- John Hall "He crams with cans of poisoned meat Why do we punish ourselves every winter :-) Keith (Southend) http://www.southendweather.net "Weather Home & Abroad" twitter: @LawnscienceEssx "We"? Punish"?? Heh! If you must! For me, it's looking at weather models and seeing when there is consistency and agreement enough to forecast with accuracy at 10 days. It matters not whether it is winter, or summer. However, if you look, for cold and snow in a UK winter, because you like cold and snow and want cold and snow, you will be disappointed much of the time with the model output and that disappointment may well "punish" you, but please don't include me in that masochistic way of looking at things! *)) Some chances of a change at 10 days, in the 00z ECM, but it's a zonal outlook on the 00z gfs. I'm still fairly happy about my forecast for the 12th, but the chances of it achieving outcome have not increased in the last two days. 06z gfs operational shows more zonal conditions again at 10 days. |
#20
![]() |
|||
|
|||
![]()
On Saturday, 4 January 2014 12:00:30 UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Saturday, January 4, 2014 7:29:15 AM UTC, Dawlish wrote: On Friday, January 3, 2014 10:03:44 PM UTC, Keith (Southend)G wrote: On Friday, 3 January 2014 21:55:31 UTC, John Hall wrote: Of course late January is often a favoured time for such a change. One thinks of 1947, 1956 and 1986. In 1947, if one looks at the chart for as late as 17th January, it's a classic zonal picture with little hint of what was to come: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/ar...0119470117.gif But by the 22nd high pressure had drifted north over the UK and established itself over Scandinavia: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/ar...0119470122.gif One wonders, if the current computer models were run with the old data for January 1947, would they have predicted the change. (Of course back then there wasn't any satellite data, which would handicap the models, though I suspect that if anything there was better surface data. They had the ocean weather ships, for one thing.) -- John Hall "He crams with cans of poisoned meat Why do we punish ourselves every winter :-) Keith (Southend) http://www.southendweather.net "Weather Home & Abroad" twitter: @LawnscienceEssx "We"? Punish"?? Heh! If you must! For me, it's looking at weather models and seeing when there is consistency and agreement enough to forecast with accuracy at 10 days. It matters not whether it is winter, or summer. However, if you look, for cold and snow in a UK winter, because you like cold and snow and want cold and snow, you will be disappointed much of the time with the model output and that disappointment may well "punish" you, but please don't include me in that masochistic way of looking at things! *)) Some chances of a change at 10 days, in the 00z ECM, but it's a zonal outlook on the 00z gfs. I'm still fairly happy about my forecast for the 12th, but the chances of it achieving outcome have not increased in the last two days. 06z gfs operational shows more zonal conditions again at 10 days. Stratwarms on the way up atm, be interesting to see if this has any significance over the coming weeks. http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_s...2013_merra.pdf Keith (Southend) http://www.southendweather.net "Weather Home & Abroad" twitter: @LawnscienceEssx |
Reply |
Thread Tools | Search this Thread |
Display Modes | |
|
|
![]() |
||||
Thread | Forum | |||
NOAA Global update for March 2016: a huge record for March and thewarmest month on record for any month (again). | uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) | |||
Change in weather type from mid-month? | uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) | |||
GFS change of type | uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) | |||
Change of type revisited... | uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) | |||
Change of type... | uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) |