exmetman wrote:
You're correct more wishful thinking on my part!

We did spend Christmas in Norway where we got plenty of snow.

I'm now thinking of emigrating because the summers are good as well�
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Brilliant the one time I was there in July. 28C in Trondheim!
Dave

In article ,
exmetman writes:
You're correct more wishful thinking on my part!

Well with the 12Z ECMWF it's back on the cards.
--
John Hall "He crams with cans of poisoned meat
The subjects of the King,
And when they die by thousands G.K.Chesterton:
Why, he laughs like anything." from "Song Against Grocers"

On Friday, 3 January 2014 17:24:55 UTC, John Hall wrote:
In article ,

John Hall writes:

In article 20140103111029.77cd8e04@home-1,

Graham P Davis writes:

On Fri, 3 Jan 2014 02:01:17 -0800 (PST)

exmetman wrote:



Hi



The latest midnight run of the GFS model shows the first signs at

T+312 (16 January) of a change in type from the current seemingly

unending cyclonic SWl'y to a more of a blocked E'ly with high

pressure building to the NE of Iceland and low pressure belt being

pushed further south into central France. Colder air will obviously

follow if this scenario pans out...







Again? Will it be 2nd time lucky for an easterly forecast from GFS this

winter?



Since Christmas Eve, Matt Hugo has been pointing out that ECMWF was

hinting at a splitting of the stratospheric vortex - not an SSW - and

that this might produce a change of type.







I don't normally put much faith out as far as T+312 - or indeed in the

06Z and 18Z GFS runs, which I understand don't have such a full data set

as the 00Z and 12Z - but for once the 06Z is consistent with the 00Z in

what it's showing. As early as T+192 the zonal train is shown as slowing

down. However beyond T+240 the operational run is very much towards the

cold end of the ensemble.

snip



The operational 12Z GFS run has reverted to keeping things zonal, which

doesn't come as a great surprise.

--

John Hall "He crams with cans of poisoned meat

The subjects of the King,

And when they die by thousands G.K.Chesterton:

Why, he laughs like anything." from "Song Against Grocers"

ecm 12z, shows a Scandi High...

Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"
twitter: @LawnscienceEssx

On Friday, January 3, 2014 7:35:33 PM UTC, exmetman wrote:
You're correct more wishful thinking on my part!



We did spend Christmas in Norway where we got plenty of snow.



I'm now thinking of emigrating because the summers are good as well�

In which case perhaps you could donate your retirement fund back to the UK government instead of letting us fund your cosy retirement there

John Hall wrote:
In article ,
exmetman writes:
You're correct more wishful thinking on my part!

Well with the 12Z ECMWF it's back on the cards.
-------------------------------------------------------------
Very few winters are entirely zonal. It's odds on that there'll be a
pattern change before the month is over. The signs are starting to creep
in even if it doesn't happen for three weeks.

In article ,
Dave Cornwell writes:
John Hall wrote:
In article ,
exmetman writes:
You're correct more wishful thinking on my part!
Well with the 12Z ECMWF it's back on the cards.
-------------------------------------------------------------
Very few winters are entirely zonal. It's odds on that there'll be a
pattern change before the month is over. The signs are starting to
creep in even if it doesn't happen for three weeks.

Of course late January is often a favoured time for such a change. One
thinks of 1947, 1956 and 1986. In 1947, if one looks at the chart for as
late as 17th January, it's a classic zonal picture with little hint of
what was to come:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/ar...0119470117.gif

But by the 22nd high pressure had drifted north over the UK and
established itself over Scandinavia:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/ar...0119470122.gif

One wonders, if the current computer models were run with the old data
for January 1947, would they have predicted the change. (Of course back
then there wasn't any satellite data, which would handicap the models,
though I suspect that if anything there was better surface data. They
had the ocean weather ships, for one thing.)
--
John Hall "He crams with cans of poisoned meat
The subjects of the King,
And when they die by thousands G.K.Chesterton:
Why, he laughs like anything." from "Song Against Grocers"

On Friday, 3 January 2014 21:55:31 UTC, John Hall wrote:


Of course late January is often a favoured time for such a change. One

thinks of 1947, 1956 and 1986. In 1947, if one looks at the chart for as

late as 17th January, it's a classic zonal picture with little hint of

what was to come:



http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/ar...0119470117.gif



But by the 22nd high pressure had drifted north over the UK and

established itself over Scandinavia:



http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/ar...0119470122.gif



One wonders, if the current computer models were run with the old data

for January 1947, would they have predicted the change. (Of course back

then there wasn't any satellite data, which would handicap the models,

though I suspect that if anything there was better surface data. They

had the ocean weather ships, for one thing.)

--

John Hall "He crams with cans of poisoned meat



Why do we punish ourselves every winter :-)

Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"
twitter: @LawnscienceEssx

On Friday, January 3, 2014 10:03:44 PM UTC, Keith (Southend)G wrote:
On Friday, 3 January 2014 21:55:31 UTC, John Hall wrote:





Of course late January is often a favoured time for such a change. One



thinks of 1947, 1956 and 1986. In 1947, if one looks at the chart for as



late as 17th January, it's a classic zonal picture with little hint of



what was to come:







http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/ar...0119470117.gif







But by the 22nd high pressure had drifted north over the UK and



established itself over Scandinavia:







http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/ar...0119470122.gif







One wonders, if the current computer models were run with the old data



for January 1947, would they have predicted the change. (Of course back



then there wasn't any satellite data, which would handicap the models,



though I suspect that if anything there was better surface data. They



had the ocean weather ships, for one thing.)



--



John Hall "He crams with cans of poisoned meat







Why do we punish ourselves every winter :-)



Keith (Southend)

http://www.southendweather.net

"Weather Home & Abroad"

twitter: @LawnscienceEssx

"We"? Punish"?? Heh! If you must!

For me, it's looking at weather models and seeing when there is consistency and agreement enough to forecast with accuracy at 10 days. It matters not whether it is winter, or summer. However, if you look, for cold and snow in a UK winter, because you like cold and snow and want cold and snow, you will be disappointed much of the time with the model output and that disappointment may well "punish" you, but please don't include me in that masochistic way of looking at things! *))

Some chances of a change at 10 days, in the 00z ECM, but it's a zonal outlook on the 00z gfs. I'm still fairly happy about my forecast for the 12th, but the chances of it achieving outcome have not increased in the last two days.

On Saturday, January 4, 2014 7:29:15 AM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Friday, January 3, 2014 10:03:44 PM UTC, Keith (Southend)G wrote:

On Friday, 3 January 2014 21:55:31 UTC, John Hall wrote:











Of course late January is often a favoured time for such a change. One







thinks of 1947, 1956 and 1986. In 1947, if one looks at the chart for as







late as 17th January, it's a classic zonal picture with little hint of







what was to come:















http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/ar...0119470117.gif















But by the 22nd high pressure had drifted north over the UK and







established itself over Scandinavia:















http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/ar...0119470122.gif















One wonders, if the current computer models were run with the old data







for January 1947, would they have predicted the change. (Of course back







then there wasn't any satellite data, which would handicap the models,







though I suspect that if anything there was better surface data. They







had the ocean weather ships, for one thing.)







--







John Hall "He crams with cans of poisoned meat















Why do we punish ourselves every winter :-)







Keith (Southend)



http://www.southendweather.net



"Weather Home & Abroad"



twitter: @LawnscienceEssx



"We"? Punish"?? Heh! If you must!



For me, it's looking at weather models and seeing when there is consistency and agreement enough to forecast with accuracy at 10 days. It matters not whether it is winter, or summer. However, if you look, for cold and snow in a UK winter, because you like cold and snow and want cold and snow, you will be disappointed much of the time with the model output and that disappointment may well "punish" you, but please don't include me in that masochistic way of looking at things! *))



Some chances of a change at 10 days, in the 00z ECM, but it's a zonal outlook on the 00z gfs. I'm still fairly happy about my forecast for the 12th, but the chances of it achieving outcome have not increased in the last two days.

06z gfs operational shows more zonal conditions again at 10 days.

On Saturday, 4 January 2014 12:00:30 UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Saturday, January 4, 2014 7:29:15 AM UTC, Dawlish wrote:

On Friday, January 3, 2014 10:03:44 PM UTC, Keith (Southend)G wrote:



On Friday, 3 January 2014 21:55:31 UTC, John Hall wrote:























Of course late January is often a favoured time for such a change. One















thinks of 1947, 1956 and 1986. In 1947, if one looks at the chart for as















late as 17th January, it's a classic zonal picture with little hint of















what was to come:































http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/ar...0119470117.gif































But by the 22nd high pressure had drifted north over the UK and















established itself over Scandinavia:































http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/ar...0119470122.gif































One wonders, if the current computer models were run with the old data















for January 1947, would they have predicted the change. (Of course back















then there wasn't any satellite data, which would handicap the models,















though I suspect that if anything there was better surface data. They















had the ocean weather ships, for one thing.)















--















John Hall "He crams with cans of poisoned meat































Why do we punish ourselves every winter :-)















Keith (Southend)







http://www.southendweather.net







"Weather Home & Abroad"







twitter: @LawnscienceEssx







"We"? Punish"?? Heh! If you must!







For me, it's looking at weather models and seeing when there is consistency and agreement enough to forecast with accuracy at 10 days. It matters not whether it is winter, or summer. However, if you look, for cold and snow in a UK winter, because you like cold and snow and want cold and snow, you will be disappointed much of the time with the model output and that disappointment may well "punish" you, but please don't include me in that masochistic way of looking at things! *))







Some chances of a change at 10 days, in the 00z ECM, but it's a zonal outlook on the 00z gfs. I'm still fairly happy about my forecast for the 12th, but the chances of it achieving outcome have not increased in the last two days.



06z gfs operational shows more zonal conditions again at 10 days.

Stratwarms on the way up atm, be interesting to see if this has any significance over the coming weeks.
http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_s...2013_merra.pdf

Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"
twitter: @LawnscienceEssx