On Saturday, January 4, 2014 12:08:25 PM UTC, Keith (Southend)G wrote:
On Saturday, 4 January 2014 12:00:30 UTC, Dawlish wrote:


06z gfs operational shows more zonal conditions again at 10 days.



Stratwarms on the way up atm, be interesting to see if this has any significance over the coming weeks.

http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_s...2013_merra.pdf

It would be even more interesting to know whether it has had an influence, should it develops further and past the average values that it has now risen to!

Keith (Southend)

http://www.southendweather.net

"Weather Home & Abroad"

twitter: @LawnscienceEssx

On Saturday, 4 January 2014 12:28:50 UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Saturday, January 4, 2014 12:08:25 PM UTC, Keith (Southend)G wrote:

On Saturday, 4 January 2014 12:00:30 UTC, Dawlish wrote:





06z gfs operational shows more zonal conditions again at 10 days.







Stratwarms on the way up atm, be interesting to see if this has any significance over the coming weeks.



http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_s...2013_merra.pdf



It would be even more interesting to know whether it has had an influence, should it develops further and past the average values that it has now risen to!



Keith (Southend)



http://www.southendweather.net



"Weather Home & Abroad"



twitter: @LawnscienceEssx

http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_s...2013_merra.pdf

Gone past the average now...

Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"
twitter: @LawnscienceEssx

In article ,
"Keith (Southend)G" writes:
Why do we punish ourselves every winter :-)



I don't find speculating about possible future developments punishing
but interesting. Otherwise I wouldn't do it.
--
John Hall "He crams with cans of poisoned meat
The subjects of the King,
And when they die by thousands G.K.Chesterton:
Why, he laughs like anything." from "Song Against Grocers"

In article ,
"Keith (Southend)G" writes:
Stratwarms on the way up atm, be interesting to see if this has any
significance over the coming weeks. http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/
Data_services/met/metdata/annual/merra/t60_90n_10_2013_merra.
pdf

Interesting that so far it's almost a carbon copy of exactly a year ago.
I imagine that it's longish odds against it finishing up as major an
event as then, though.
--
John Hall "He crams with cans of poisoned meat
The subjects of the King,
And when they die by thousands G.K.Chesterton:
Why, he laughs like anything." from "Song Against Grocers"

In article ,
"Keith (Southend)G" writes:
Stratwarms on the way up atm, be interesting to see if this has any
significance over the coming weeks. http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/
Data_services/met/metdata/annual/merra/t60_90n_10_2013_merra.
pdf

Today's 12Z ECMWF operational run shows a big change starting to set in
as early as next Friday (T+144), with the weather from then on becoming
much more settled, first in the south but then in the north as well. If
skies clear then frost and fog seem likely. Out as far as T+240 it
doesn't look like turning particularly cold, though there's the
potential for it to do so shortly thereafter, especially in the south.
But whether that will happen and how soon will depend on the precise
positioning of the anticyclone.
--
John Hall "He crams with cans of poisoned meat
The subjects of the King,
And when they die by thousands G.K.Chesterton:
Why, he laughs like anything." from "Song Against Grocers"

On Saturday, 4 January 2014 20:45:02 UTC, John Hall wrote:
In article ,

"Keith (Southend)G" writes:

Stratwarms on the way up atm, be interesting to see if this has any

significance over the coming weeks. http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/

Data_services/met/metdata/annual/merra/t60_90n_10_2013_merra.

pdf



Today's 12Z ECMWF operational run shows a big change starting to set in

as early as next Friday (T+144), with the weather from then on becoming

much more settled, first in the south but then in the north as well. If

skies clear then frost and fog seem likely. Out as far as T+240 it

doesn't look like turning particularly cold, though there's the

potential for it to do so shortly thereafter, especially in the south.

But whether that will happen and how soon will depend on the precise

positioning of the anticyclone.

--

John Hall "He crams with cans of poisoned meat

The subjects of the King,

And when they die by thousands G.K.Chesterton:

Why, he laughs like anything." from "Song Against Grocers"

I do wonder whether ecm takes account of SSW whereas gfs may not, hence at the moment gfs is keen on staying zonal.

When I say 'punishing', I think of the song 'The Grand old Duke of York', 'he marched them up to the top of the hill and he marched them down again', when the models tease us at T+240 and beyond like a yoyo :-)

I think the SSW situation doesn't show positioning, which may determine where any blocking may occur, so I very much doubt a carbon copy of last year.

And then ones wonders what the SSW stiuation was in years like 1947 and 1963, especially when 1947 didn't get going until later in January, but here I go again marching up that hill LOL.

Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"
twitter: @LawnscienceEssx

In article ,
"Keith (Southend)G" writes:
And then ones wonders what the SSW stiuation was in years like
1947 and 1963, especially when 1947 didn't get going until later in
January, but here I go again marching up that hill LOL.

Sadly I don't think the measurements would be available for 1947, and
probably not for 1963 either. The NOAA record only goes back as far as
March 1979.

You can access their archive he

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...e/temperature/

Here's the 10mb graph for 1985 and 1986:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...b9065_1986.gif

The cold Jan/Feb of 1985 seem to have been preceded by a major SSW in
Dec 1984. The very cold Feb 1986 was preceded by a rather "jerky" SSW in
Dec 1985 and Jan 1986. Of course that doesn't prove that they were cause
and effect.
--
John Hall "He crams with cans of poisoned meat
The subjects of the King,
And when they die by thousands G.K.Chesterton:
Why, he laughs like anything." from "Song Against Grocers"

In article ,
John Hall writes:
In article ,
"Keith (Southend)G" writes:
And then ones wonders what the SSW stiuation was in years like
1947 and 1963, especially when 1947 didn't get going until later in
January, but here I go again marching up that hill LOL.

Sadly I don't think the measurements would be available for 1947, and
probably not for 1963 either. The NOAA record only goes back as far as
March 1979.

You can access their archive he

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...e/temperature/

Here's the 10mb graph for 1985 and 1986:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...e/temperature/
archive/10mb9065_1986.gif

The cold Jan/Feb of 1985 seem to have been preceded by a major SSW in
Dec 1984. The very cold Feb 1986 was preceded by a rather "jerky" SSW in
Dec 1985 and Jan 1986. Of course that doesn't prove that they were cause
and effect.

The very mild winter of 1988-9 had a major SSW at the end of December.
There was a long period in the second half of January and first half of
February when pressure was very high - especially in the south of the UK
- but the centre of the High was positioned just to the south or east of
southern England pretty much throughout, giving winds between west and
south across the country.

It's beginning to look as if most winters have a significant SSW at some
point, and that these may be linked to a blocking anticyclone appearing
a few weeks later, but that the result for our weather will depend on
just where that anticyclone is centred, about which the fact of the SSW
may not tell you anything.

ETA: I've now looked at some 50mb graphs. Interestingly the Dec 88 SSW
didn't reach down as far as 50mb. That in Dec 84 did, and I wondered if
that might be an indicator as to where the High was likely to be
positioned. But sadly the SSW in Dec 85/Jan 86 isn't very evident at
50mb, so its SSW is more similar to the one in the 88-9 winter than the
one in the 1984-5 winter.
--
John Hall "He crams with cans of poisoned meat
The subjects of the King,
And when they die by thousands G.K.Chesterton:
Why, he laughs like anything." from "Song Against Grocers"

On Saturday, 4 January 2014 22:12:35 UTC, John Hall wrote:
In article ,

John Hall writes:

In article ,

"Keith (Southend)G" writes:

And then ones wonders what the SSW stiuation was in years like

1947 and 1963, especially when 1947 didn't get going until later in

January, but here I go again marching up that hill LOL.



Sadly I don't think the measurements would be available for 1947, and

probably not for 1963 either. The NOAA record only goes back as far as

March 1979.



You can access their archive he



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...e/temperature/



Here's the 10mb graph for 1985 and 1986:



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...e/temperature/

archive/10mb9065_1986.gif



The cold Jan/Feb of 1985 seem to have been preceded by a major SSW in

Dec 1984. The very cold Feb 1986 was preceded by a rather "jerky" SSW in

Dec 1985 and Jan 1986. Of course that doesn't prove that they were cause

and effect.



The very mild winter of 1988-9 had a major SSW at the end of December.

There was a long period in the second half of January and first half of

February when pressure was very high - especially in the south of the UK

- but the centre of the High was positioned just to the south or east of

southern England pretty much throughout, giving winds between west and

south across the country.



It's beginning to look as if most winters have a significant SSW at some

point, and that these may be linked to a blocking anticyclone appearing

a few weeks later, but that the result for our weather will depend on

just where that anticyclone is centred, about which the fact of the SSW

may not tell you anything.



ETA: I've now looked at some 50mb graphs. Interestingly the Dec 88 SSW

didn't reach down as far as 50mb. That in Dec 84 did, and I wondered if

that might be an indicator as to where the High was likely to be

positioned. But sadly the SSW in Dec 85/Jan 86 isn't very evident at

50mb, so its SSW is more similar to the one in the 88-9 winter than the

one in the 1984-5 winter.

--

John Hall "He crams with cans of poisoned meat

The subjects of the King,

And when they die by thousands G.K.Chesterton:

Why, he laughs like anything." from "Song Against Grocers"

Thanks John for looking at some of the past SSW situations. What does seem certain, is a change in weather type can be expected when one occurs and I'm sure some 'others' may have a better idea at some of the differences in SSW set-ups and a better idea of the outcome on the ground. But we have come a long way in meteorology over the years to a point where we monitor a previously unknown feature and now look in anticipation at what effect it may have in the coming weeks. All good stuff.

Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"
twitter: @LawnscienceEssx

In article ,
John Hall writes:
It's beginning to look as if most winters have a significant SSW at
some point, and that these may be linked to a blocking
anticyclone appearing a few weeks later, but that the result for our
weather will depend on just where that anticyclone is centred,
about which the fact of the SSW may not tell you anything.

ETA: I've now looked at some 50mb graphs. Interestingly the Dec
88 SSW
didn't reach down as far as 50mb. That in Dec 84 did, and I
wondered if that might be an indicator as to where the High was
likely to be positioned. But sadly the SSW in Dec 85/Jan 86 isn't
very evident at 50mb, so its SSW is more similar to the one in the
88-9 winter than the one in the 1984-5 winter.

What might be helpful as a predictive tool would be to know precisely
where the SSW began, but unfortunately the NOAA graphs don't tell you
that. They merely give the average (I assume) temperature for the whole
Arctic region (strictly speaking for north of 65N, but that near enough
corresponds to the Arctic Circle).
--
John Hall "He crams with cans of poisoned meat
The subjects of the King,
And when they die by thousands G.K.Chesterton:
Why, he laughs like anything." from "Song Against Grocers"