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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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#21
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On Saturday, January 4, 2014 12:08:25 PM UTC, Keith (Southend)G wrote:
On Saturday, 4 January 2014 12:00:30 UTC, Dawlish wrote: 06z gfs operational shows more zonal conditions again at 10 days. Stratwarms on the way up atm, be interesting to see if this has any significance over the coming weeks. http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_s...2013_merra.pdf It would be even more interesting to know whether it has had an influence, should it develops further and past the average values that it has now risen to! Keith (Southend) http://www.southendweather.net "Weather Home & Abroad" twitter: @LawnscienceEssx |
#22
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On Saturday, 4 January 2014 12:28:50 UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Saturday, January 4, 2014 12:08:25 PM UTC, Keith (Southend)G wrote: On Saturday, 4 January 2014 12:00:30 UTC, Dawlish wrote: 06z gfs operational shows more zonal conditions again at 10 days. Stratwarms on the way up atm, be interesting to see if this has any significance over the coming weeks. http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_s...2013_merra.pdf It would be even more interesting to know whether it has had an influence, should it develops further and past the average values that it has now risen to! Keith (Southend) http://www.southendweather.net "Weather Home & Abroad" twitter: @LawnscienceEssx http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_s...2013_merra.pdf Gone past the average now... Keith (Southend) http://www.southendweather.net "Weather Home & Abroad" twitter: @LawnscienceEssx |
#23
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In article ,
"Keith (Southend)G" writes: Why do we punish ourselves every winter :-) ![]() I don't find speculating about possible future developments punishing but interesting. Otherwise I wouldn't do it. -- John Hall "He crams with cans of poisoned meat The subjects of the King, And when they die by thousands G.K.Chesterton: Why, he laughs like anything." from "Song Against Grocers" |
#24
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In article ,
"Keith (Southend)G" writes: Stratwarms on the way up atm, be interesting to see if this has any significance over the coming weeks. http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/ Data_services/met/metdata/annual/merra/t60_90n_10_2013_merra. Interesting that so far it's almost a carbon copy of exactly a year ago. I imagine that it's longish odds against it finishing up as major an event as then, though. -- John Hall "He crams with cans of poisoned meat The subjects of the King, And when they die by thousands G.K.Chesterton: Why, he laughs like anything." from "Song Against Grocers" |
#25
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In article ,
"Keith (Southend)G" writes: Stratwarms on the way up atm, be interesting to see if this has any significance over the coming weeks. http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/ Data_services/met/metdata/annual/merra/t60_90n_10_2013_merra. Today's 12Z ECMWF operational run shows a big change starting to set in as early as next Friday (T+144), with the weather from then on becoming much more settled, first in the south but then in the north as well. If skies clear then frost and fog seem likely. Out as far as T+240 it doesn't look like turning particularly cold, though there's the potential for it to do so shortly thereafter, especially in the south. But whether that will happen and how soon will depend on the precise positioning of the anticyclone. -- John Hall "He crams with cans of poisoned meat The subjects of the King, And when they die by thousands G.K.Chesterton: Why, he laughs like anything." from "Song Against Grocers" |
#26
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On Saturday, 4 January 2014 20:45:02 UTC, John Hall wrote:
In article , "Keith (Southend)G" writes: Stratwarms on the way up atm, be interesting to see if this has any significance over the coming weeks. http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/ Data_services/met/metdata/annual/merra/t60_90n_10_2013_merra. Today's 12Z ECMWF operational run shows a big change starting to set in as early as next Friday (T+144), with the weather from then on becoming much more settled, first in the south but then in the north as well. If skies clear then frost and fog seem likely. Out as far as T+240 it doesn't look like turning particularly cold, though there's the potential for it to do so shortly thereafter, especially in the south. But whether that will happen and how soon will depend on the precise positioning of the anticyclone. -- John Hall "He crams with cans of poisoned meat The subjects of the King, And when they die by thousands G.K.Chesterton: Why, he laughs like anything." from "Song Against Grocers" I do wonder whether ecm takes account of SSW whereas gfs may not, hence at the moment gfs is keen on staying zonal. When I say 'punishing', I think of the song 'The Grand old Duke of York', 'he marched them up to the top of the hill and he marched them down again', when the models tease us at T+240 and beyond like a yoyo :-) I think the SSW situation doesn't show positioning, which may determine where any blocking may occur, so I very much doubt a carbon copy of last year. And then ones wonders what the SSW stiuation was in years like 1947 and 1963, especially when 1947 didn't get going until later in January, but here I go again marching up that hill LOL. Keith (Southend) http://www.southendweather.net "Weather Home & Abroad" twitter: @LawnscienceEssx |
#27
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In article ,
"Keith (Southend)G" writes: And then ones wonders what the SSW stiuation was in years like 1947 and 1963, especially when 1947 didn't get going until later in January, but here I go again marching up that hill LOL. Sadly I don't think the measurements would be available for 1947, and probably not for 1963 either. The NOAA record only goes back as far as March 1979. You can access their archive he http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...e/temperature/ Here's the 10mb graph for 1985 and 1986: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...b9065_1986.gif The cold Jan/Feb of 1985 seem to have been preceded by a major SSW in Dec 1984. The very cold Feb 1986 was preceded by a rather "jerky" SSW in Dec 1985 and Jan 1986. Of course that doesn't prove that they were cause and effect. -- John Hall "He crams with cans of poisoned meat The subjects of the King, And when they die by thousands G.K.Chesterton: Why, he laughs like anything." from "Song Against Grocers" |
#28
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In article ,
John Hall writes: In article , "Keith (Southend)G" writes: And then ones wonders what the SSW stiuation was in years like 1947 and 1963, especially when 1947 didn't get going until later in January, but here I go again marching up that hill LOL. Sadly I don't think the measurements would be available for 1947, and probably not for 1963 either. The NOAA record only goes back as far as March 1979. You can access their archive he http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...e/temperature/ Here's the 10mb graph for 1985 and 1986: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...e/temperature/ archive/10mb9065_1986.gif The cold Jan/Feb of 1985 seem to have been preceded by a major SSW in Dec 1984. The very cold Feb 1986 was preceded by a rather "jerky" SSW in Dec 1985 and Jan 1986. Of course that doesn't prove that they were cause and effect. The very mild winter of 1988-9 had a major SSW at the end of December. There was a long period in the second half of January and first half of February when pressure was very high - especially in the south of the UK - but the centre of the High was positioned just to the south or east of southern England pretty much throughout, giving winds between west and south across the country. It's beginning to look as if most winters have a significant SSW at some point, and that these may be linked to a blocking anticyclone appearing a few weeks later, but that the result for our weather will depend on just where that anticyclone is centred, about which the fact of the SSW may not tell you anything. ETA: I've now looked at some 50mb graphs. Interestingly the Dec 88 SSW didn't reach down as far as 50mb. That in Dec 84 did, and I wondered if that might be an indicator as to where the High was likely to be positioned. But sadly the SSW in Dec 85/Jan 86 isn't very evident at 50mb, so its SSW is more similar to the one in the 88-9 winter than the one in the 1984-5 winter. -- John Hall "He crams with cans of poisoned meat The subjects of the King, And when they die by thousands G.K.Chesterton: Why, he laughs like anything." from "Song Against Grocers" |
#29
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On Saturday, 4 January 2014 22:12:35 UTC, John Hall wrote:
In article , John Hall writes: In article , "Keith (Southend)G" writes: And then ones wonders what the SSW stiuation was in years like 1947 and 1963, especially when 1947 didn't get going until later in January, but here I go again marching up that hill LOL. Sadly I don't think the measurements would be available for 1947, and probably not for 1963 either. The NOAA record only goes back as far as March 1979. You can access their archive he http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...e/temperature/ Here's the 10mb graph for 1985 and 1986: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...e/temperature/ archive/10mb9065_1986.gif The cold Jan/Feb of 1985 seem to have been preceded by a major SSW in Dec 1984. The very cold Feb 1986 was preceded by a rather "jerky" SSW in Dec 1985 and Jan 1986. Of course that doesn't prove that they were cause and effect. The very mild winter of 1988-9 had a major SSW at the end of December. There was a long period in the second half of January and first half of February when pressure was very high - especially in the south of the UK - but the centre of the High was positioned just to the south or east of southern England pretty much throughout, giving winds between west and south across the country. It's beginning to look as if most winters have a significant SSW at some point, and that these may be linked to a blocking anticyclone appearing a few weeks later, but that the result for our weather will depend on just where that anticyclone is centred, about which the fact of the SSW may not tell you anything. ETA: I've now looked at some 50mb graphs. Interestingly the Dec 88 SSW didn't reach down as far as 50mb. That in Dec 84 did, and I wondered if that might be an indicator as to where the High was likely to be positioned. But sadly the SSW in Dec 85/Jan 86 isn't very evident at 50mb, so its SSW is more similar to the one in the 88-9 winter than the one in the 1984-5 winter. -- John Hall "He crams with cans of poisoned meat The subjects of the King, And when they die by thousands G.K.Chesterton: Why, he laughs like anything." from "Song Against Grocers" Thanks John for looking at some of the past SSW situations. What does seem certain, is a change in weather type can be expected when one occurs and I'm sure some 'others' may have a better idea at some of the differences in SSW set-ups and a better idea of the outcome on the ground. But we have come a long way in meteorology over the years to a point where we monitor a previously unknown feature and now look in anticipation at what effect it may have in the coming weeks. All good stuff. Keith (Southend) http://www.southendweather.net "Weather Home & Abroad" twitter: @LawnscienceEssx |
#30
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In article ,
John Hall writes: It's beginning to look as if most winters have a significant SSW at some point, and that these may be linked to a blocking anticyclone appearing a few weeks later, but that the result for our weather will depend on just where that anticyclone is centred, about which the fact of the SSW may not tell you anything. ETA: I've now looked at some 50mb graphs. Interestingly the Dec 88 SSW didn't reach down as far as 50mb. That in Dec 84 did, and I wondered if that might be an indicator as to where the High was likely to be positioned. But sadly the SSW in Dec 85/Jan 86 isn't very evident at 50mb, so its SSW is more similar to the one in the 88-9 winter than the one in the 1984-5 winter. What might be helpful as a predictive tool would be to know precisely where the SSW began, but unfortunately the NOAA graphs don't tell you that. They merely give the average (I assume) temperature for the whole Arctic region (strictly speaking for north of 65N, but that near enough corresponds to the Arctic Circle). -- John Hall "He crams with cans of poisoned meat The subjects of the King, And when they die by thousands G.K.Chesterton: Why, he laughs like anything." from "Song Against Grocers" |
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