In article ,
exmetman writes:
Hi

The GFS certainly seems to be going for a strong Easterly by T+192
with 522 thicknesses getting into all northern areas.

Looks like at upper cold pool crossing the south on the 16th and 17th,
judging by that patch of blue on the pressure and 500mb temps chart,
which might be interesting should it come to pass.
--
John Hall "He crams with cans of poisoned meat
The subjects of the King,
And when they die by thousands G.K.Chesterton:
Why, he laughs like anything." from "Song Against Grocers"

Looking back...

Well it's now past T+192 (which I think was yesterday the 16th) and although there is a very strong SE'ly flow affecting the far NE of the British Isles, and an Anticyclone and cold air over Finland, with a strong ridge to southern Norway - there has been NO change in type!

What we need is one of the many lows that intensify to the W of Ireland, to have enough momentum to push across the North Sea and into northern Germany. It may be we need to go through a period of S'lys before we see pressure giving way in the Med and pulling in more of a SE'ly to get out of this cyclonic SW'ly run.

Looking forward...

Like a mug I'm staring at the latest 0600 GFS run - will I ever learn! That indicates that this may happen briefly (low into Germany) at T+300 (29th January), so I'll pick up this thread then and see if it did happen!

Bruce.

Looking back to my 17th Jan posting:

Well its the now the 30th and there was a change in type yesterday! So YES there was a change in type as suggested by the T+300 GFS! But only half a point because the low never made it into Germany! This is probably the first real break in the SW/CSW spell since it started back in early December.

Looking forward...

No change of type out to T+384 (15 Feb). Once we get out of this very short lived CSE its back into the same mix of SW/CSW occasional C. I'll see if the GFS gets it right when I report back in a fortnight.

Bruce.

On Thursday, January 30, 2014 8:13:23 AM UTC, exmetman wrote:
Looking back to my 17th Jan posting:



Well its the now the 30th and there was a change in type yesterday! So YES there was a change in type as suggested by the T+300 GFS! But only half a point because the low never made it into Germany! This is probably the first real break in the SW/CSW spell since it started back in early December.



Looking forward...



No change of type out to T+384 (15 Feb). Once we get out of this very short lived CSE its back into the same mix of SW/CSW occasional C. I'll see if the GFS gets it right when I report back in a fortnight.



Bruce.

HI Bruce,

In the early days of constructing my forecasting algorithm, I used to try to forecast at 10 days. I only managed to get a plume right at T+300 once and that was the furthest I dared go! It certainly looks strongly zonal on the gfs, right out as far as 16 days, but I can't trust anything beyond 10 and I con't trust even that most of the time. I'm 80% confident of Atlantic weather at T+240 ATM, but I always leave 3 days in between forecasts to avoid the tag of cashing in on persistence. Most of my forecasts show changes, but not this winter. The only change (to colder) I forecast, I got wrong!!

Interesting what you are doing though; I'll look forward to your updates and thanks for monitoring this.

In article ,
exmetman writes:
Looking back to my 17th Jan posting:

Well its the now the 30th and there was a change in type
yesterday! So YES there was a change in type as suggested by the
T+300 GFS! But only half a point because the low never made it
into Germany! This is probably the first real break in the SW/CSW
spell since it started back in early December.

Yep. As I've mentioned before, this is a favoured time of year for such
a break to occur. Of course when it does it generally lasts for more
than 48 hours! (Or maybe I just don't remember the times when it
didn't.)

Looking forward...

No change of type out to T+384 (15 Feb). Once we get out of this
very short lived CSE its back into the same mix of SW/CSW
occasional C. I'll see if the GFS gets it right when I report back in a
fortnight.

Bruce.

Thanks. That will be interesting.

Today's 00Z ECMWF run suggests that the next 10 days will not only
continue unsettled but could be exceptionally mild, with the wind a
southerly for most of the time.
--
John Hall "He crams with cans of poisoned meat
The subjects of the King,
And when they die by thousands G.K.Chesterton:
Why, he laughs like anything." from "Song Against Grocers"