As we reach the halfway point of winter I've found that this season's mean temp and rainfall is remarkably similar to 1985/86 - which was followed by the third coldest February in this area since 1881. However, before any coldies get excited it is also very similar to 1989/90 - which was followed by the Burns' Day Storm and the warmest February on record. Two other similar seasons 1993/94 and 2002/03 were fairly non-descript and had below average 'snow lying' days.

Which leaves the chance of at least one fall of snow at 75%.

Details can be found on my blog: http://wp.me/p2VSmb-ns

On Tuesday, January 14, 2014 6:02:01 PM UTC, Scott W wrote:
As we reach the halfway point of winter I've found that this season's mean temp and rainfall is remarkably similar to 1985/86 - which was followed by the third coldest February in this area since 1881. However, before any coldies get excited it is also very similar to 1989/90 - which was followed by the Burns' Day Storm and the warmest February on record. Two other similar seasons 1993/94 and 2002/03 were fairly non-descript and had below average 'snow lying' days.



Which leaves the chance of at least one fall of snow at 75%.



Details can be found on my blog: http://wp.me/p2VSmb-ns

Four days later I think this should perhaps be titled '...similar to 1989/90'.

Some stats to 09 today...

My January mean so far is 7.1C, nearly 2C warmer than average. If it stays like this it will be the warmest January for 14 years. The warmest January in this area was 1975 with 8C. Warmest in my memory is 1983 and that dreadful one in 1990, which both had means of 7.6C. January rainfall so far is 69mm (currently running 28th in the series back to 1881). The record is 128mm set in 1988.

I wonder, having been 'spoilt' the last few years for cold and snow, if we're going into a run of mild winters. That's not to say severe spells can't happen, ie February 1991...

Of course it is strange how with age your love of cold and snow is tempered because I now pay the gas and electric bills, though gas was so much cheaper back in the 1980s...

On Saturday, 18 January 2014 14:03:20 UTC, Scott W wrote:
On Tuesday, January 14, 2014 6:02:01 PM UTC, Scott W wrote:

As we reach the halfway point of winter I've found that this season's mean temp and rainfall is remarkably similar to 1985/86 - which was followed by the third coldest February in this area since 1881. However, before any coldies get excited it is also very similar to 1989/90 - which was followed by the Burns' Day Storm and the warmest February on record. Two other similar seasons 1993/94 and 2002/03 were fairly non-descript and had below average 'snow lying' days.







Which leaves the chance of at least one fall of snow at 75%.







Details can be found on my blog: http://wp.me/p2VSmb-ns



Four days later I think this should perhaps be titled '...similar to 1989/90'.



Some stats to 09 today...



My January mean so far is 7.1C, nearly 2C warmer than average. If it stays like this it will be the warmest January for 14 years. The warmest January in this area was 1975 with 8C. Warmest in my memory is 1983 and that dreadful one in 1990, which both had means of 7.6C. January rainfall so far is 69mm (currently running 28th in the series back to 1881). The record is 128mm set in 1988.



I wonder, having been 'spoilt' the last few years for cold and snow, if we're going into a run of mild winters. That's not to say severe spells can't happen, ie February 1991...



Of course it is strange how with age your love of cold and snow is tempered because I now pay the gas and electric bills, though gas was so much cheaper back in the 1980s...

Here's my current stats for January...My data starts 1878.

2.8°C above average
Average max currently 10.1°C which if that figure stayed would be second warmest January 10.4°C 2007

Rain 84.2mm - 4th wettest (2014)
1995 91.7mm
2011 98.4mm
1988 147.6mm

January 1986 was 6.6°C average max, so I did see a similarity there.

To be honest, I have not a clue what this February is going to throw at us :-0

Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"
twitter: @LawnscienceEssx

On Saturday, 18 January 2014 14:18:02 UTC, Keith (Southend)G wrote:
On Saturday, 18 January 2014 14:03:20 UTC, Scott W wrote:

On Tuesday, January 14, 2014 6:02:01 PM UTC, Scott W wrote:



As we reach the halfway point of winter I've found that this season's mean temp and rainfall is remarkably similar to 1985/86 - which was followed by the third coldest February in this area since 1881. However, before any coldies get excited it is also very similar to 1989/90 - which was followed by the Burns' Day Storm and the warmest February on record. Two other similar seasons 1993/94 and 2002/03 were fairly non-descript and had below average 'snow lying' days.















Which leaves the chance of at least one fall of snow at 75%.















Details can be found on my blog: http://wp.me/p2VSmb-ns







Four days later I think this should perhaps be titled '...similar to 1989/90'.







Some stats to 09 today...







My January mean so far is 7.1C, nearly 2C warmer than average. If it stays like this it will be the warmest January for 14 years. The warmest January in this area was 1975 with 8C. Warmest in my memory is 1983 and that dreadful one in 1990, which both had means of 7.6C. January rainfall so far is 69mm (currently running 28th in the series back to 1881). The record is 128mm set in 1988.







I wonder, having been 'spoilt' the last few years for cold and snow, if we're going into a run of mild winters. That's not to say severe spells can't happen, ie February 1991...







Of course it is strange how with age your love of cold and snow is tempered because I now pay the gas and electric bills, though gas was so much cheaper back in the 1980s...



Here's my current stats for January...My data starts 1878.



2.8°C above average

Average max currently 10.1°C which if that figure stayed would be second warmest January 10.4°C 2007



Rain 84.2mm - 4th wettest (2014)

1995 91.7mm

2011 98.4mm

1988 147.6mm



January 1986 was 6.6°C average max, so I did see a similarity there.



To be honest, I have not a clue what this February is going to throw at us :-0



Keith (Southend)

http://www.southendweather.net

"Weather Home & Abroad"

twitter: @LawnscienceEssx

Sould be 1978 :-)