I wished for zonality?? I hate snow?? Where do you get these ideas from
Graham? Certainly not from me.

Didn't you always give Will loads of stick about loving snow????
Anyway sorry mate there a whole lots more wind and rain coming your way!

Full snow cover here, clear now with current temp -0.1c

Graham (North Staffs)

I forecast the weather at 10 days because, with an 80% accuracy, I know when the models can be trusted at 10 days. 10 days ago, the models could be trusted and showed Atlantic weather. You might think the weather is somehow my fault, but that's a claim I don't think I can make! *))

Ah, so it's the models that forecast the zonality and not you, as I've always said.

David, semi-snowy, semi-wet, very icy Langtoft.

"Graham" wrote in message
...



I wished for zonality?? I hate snow?? Where do you get these ideas from
Graham? Certainly not from me.

Didn't you always give Will loads of stick about loving snow????
Anyway sorry mate there a whole lots more wind and rain coming your way!

Full snow cover here, clear now with current temp -0.1c

Graham (North Staffs)

Hi Graham, full snow cover here too. 1cm frozen snow and looking at the
radar, more to come. Most welcome! Shining pristine white in the moonlight
earlier. Snow line is at 250m asl, well above Dawlish :-)

Cheers,
Will (Haytor, Devon, 310m asl)
--

On Tuesday, 11 February 2014 23:39:30 UTC, wrote:
"Graham" wrote in message

...







I wished for zonality?? I hate snow?? Where do you get these ideas from

Graham? Certainly not from me.



Didn't you always give Will loads of stick about loving snow????

Anyway sorry mate there a whole lots more wind and rain coming your way!



Full snow cover here, clear now with current temp -0.1c



Graham (North Staffs)



Hi Graham, full snow cover here too. 1cm frozen snow and looking at the

radar, more to come. Most welcome! Shining pristine white in the moonlight

earlier. Snow line is at 250m asl, well above Dawlish :-)



Cheers,

Will (Haytor, Devon, 310m asl)

--

He hates you being above him; Hyacinth Grave'y that is.

On Tuesday, February 11, 2014 10:05:29 PM UTC, Graham wrote:
I wished for zonality?? I hate snow?? Where do you get these ideas from

Graham? Certainly not from me.



Didn't you always give Will loads of stick about loving snow????

No, Graham, I criticised him for hopecasting and exaggerating the probabilities of snow, which he still does. Somehow he thinks that saying lots of snow will happen will encourage it to happen and it still permeates his posting on ukww. Does saying this mean that I don't enjoy a few days of snow? shakes head I must have said this so many times, but selective reading is an art in newsgroups.


Anyway sorry mate there a whole lots more wind and rain coming your way!

There is. There are an awful lot of worried people and it's not just coming my way, I can assure you. You'll see that if you watch the news.

Full snow cover here, clear now with current temp -0.1c

I saw some sleet coming over the Haldon Hills yesterday. Glad I was in the car!

Graham (North Staffs)

On Tuesday, February 11, 2014 10:38:20 PM UTC, David Mitchell wrote:
I forecast the weather at 10 days because, with an 80% accuracy, I know when the models can be trusted at 10 days. 10 days ago, the models could be trusted and showed Atlantic weather. You might think the weather is somehow my fault, but that's a claim I don't think I can make! *))



Ah, so it's the models that forecast the zonality (and not you, as I've always said.)



David, semi-snowy, semi-wet, very icy Langtoft.

Odd, that's what I've always said too. What I do better than others is to interpret the models to say what they are likely to be correct at any one time. (That's what you've never said, but is what actually happens).

Odd, that's what I've always said too. What I do better than others is to interpret the models to say what they are likely to be correct at any one time. (That's what you've never said, but is what actually happens).

No, I've always said that it is you interpreting the models, not you making the forecast. It is the models forecasting not you.
Whist Will may be "hopecasting" (in your opinion) what he is brave enough to do is actually forecast and not be afraid to get it wrong.
Getting things wrong is one of the best ways to learn by analysing what went wrong and applying those learnings in the future.
Watching others forecasts and only being able to "forecast" when they show consistency is lacking in skill and confidence in those skills.
If you were brave enough to forecast when there's inconsistency in the models, then you'd have my respect, even if you get it wrong more often than not.
How are you better at interpreting the models when you only "forecast" when there's consistency?
How are you better than anyone else at this?
If I had the time I'd love to match your record (it's not difficult) by issuing my own, but I have a life outside this group and many other interests that all demand time.
But, if I did have the time, I wouldn't do that anyway, I'd rather test my own interpretations on a daily basis to see how successful I could be and not be afraid of getting it wrong.

On Wednesday, February 12, 2014 8:55:21 AM UTC, David Mitchell wrote:
Odd, that's what I've always said too. What I do better than others is to interpret the models to say what they are likely to be correct at any one time. (That's what you've never said, but is what actually happens).



No, I've always said that it is you interpreting the models.

Then we agree. That's what every forecaster does and I am no different. Without models, forecasting at 10 days would be utterly impossible, as it was 50 years ago.

I love the way that you say that matching my record is not difficult, but you haven't actually done it, because you haven't got the time! You must be very good at knowing when the models are consistent to be that confident. Without ever having done this, how could you possibly know!

I get it wrong around 20% of the time. You are right, one learns from one's mistakes and I have honed the technique over time as a result of that and the accuracy has increased from around 75% to over 80% in 7 years. I do forecast when the models are inconsistent, by default. I say that they are not to be trusted to 80% confidence, when I don't forecast, as long as that is 3 days after my last forecast.

One day you will actually try to understand what I do, or not; it won't make much difference, but do allow me to put you right on your misconceptions about what I do! *))

"David Mitchell" wrote in message
...
Watching others forecasts and only being able to "forecast" when they show consistency is
lacking in skill and confidence in those skills.
If you were brave enough to forecast when there's inconsistency in the models, then you'd have
my respect, even if you get it wrong more often than not.

What would be the point of that?
It would simply be guesswork, not bravery, and such 'forecasts' would have little or no value.

It would simply be guesswork, not bravery, and such 'forecasts' would have little or no value.

Far from it. What do you learn from predicting a near certainty? A high percentage of accuracy. What if you test your theories when certainty is unclear? A high percentage of inaccuracy. But if you analyse your predictions and learn from that, then you you have a better chance of being able to predict with a greater certainty in the future.
I'm thankful that you and Dawlish are not scientists, or we'd still be in the dark ages.