In with the new weather; same as the old weather..........but perhaps a little milder:

**At T+240 on 11th Feb, the UK will be experiencing weather with an Atlantic source. Low pressures crossing the UK will lead to generally wet and windy weather. Temperatures will be above average, with only ridges of high pressure providing respites, with the possibility of frost and fog. Snow is very unlikely, except on Northern hills in the lee of any depressions and as the fronts approach, but in advance of the depressions, we may see mild, springlike weather, as air is dragged up from the SW."

I wish I could see a drying out, but it's simply not there.

On Saturday, February 1, 2014 9:31:47 AM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
In with the new weather; same as the old weather..........but perhaps a little milder:



**At T+240 on 11th Feb, the UK will be experiencing weather with an Atlantic source. Low pressures crossing the UK will lead to generally wet and windy weather. Temperatures will be above average, with only ridges of high pressure providing respites, with the possibility of frost and fog. Snow is very unlikely, except on Northern hills in the lee of any depressions and as the fronts approach, but in advance of the depressions, we may see mild, springlike weather, as air is dragged up from the SW."



I wish I could see a drying out, but it's simply not there.

It is there on recent GFS runs though. Granted the ECM doesn't seem to agree - but there must be a possibility of a change given that three or four GFS runs have suggested a settling down round the 12th. I certainly hope so!

I can't see anything "springlike" until that happens though, for weather to be "springlike" it's got to be settled as well as mild: otherwise it's just plain autumnal!

Nick wrote:
On Saturday, February 1, 2014 9:31:47 AM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
In with the new weather; same as the old weather..........but perhaps a little milder:



**At T+240 on 11th Feb, the UK will be experiencing weather with an Atlantic source. Low pressures crossing the UK will lead to generally wet and windy weather. Temperatures will be above average, with only ridges of high pressure providing respites, with the possibility of frost and fog. Snow is very unlikely, except on Northern hills in the lee of any depressions and as the fronts approach, but in advance of the depressions, we may see mild, springlike weather, as air is dragged up from the SW."



I wish I could see a drying out, but it's simply not there.

It is there on recent GFS runs though. Granted the ECM doesn't seem to agree - but there must be a possibility of a change given that three or four GFS runs have suggested a settling down round the 12th. I certainly hope so!

I can't see anything "springlike" until that happens though, for weather to be "springlike" it's got to be settled as well as mild: otherwise it's just plain autumnal!
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Someone on December 12th should have said:-
Forecast:-
**From now till T+1440 it it will be mild, very wet and very windy**
Now that would have been good! As far as I can find anywhere nobody did
hence the reason I ignore seasonal forecasts.
Dave

On Saturday, February 1, 2014 10:55:25 AM UTC, Dave Cornwell wrote:
Nick wrote:

On Saturday, February 1, 2014 9:31:47 AM UTC, Dawlish wrote:

In with the new weather; same as the old weather..........but perhaps a little milder:







**At T+240 on 11th Feb, the UK will be experiencing weather with an Atlantic source. Low pressures crossing the UK will lead to generally wet and windy weather. Temperatures will be above average, with only ridges of high pressure providing respites, with the possibility of frost and fog. Snow is very unlikely, except on Northern hills in the lee of any depressions and as the fronts approach, but in advance of the depressions, we may see mild, springlike weather, as air is dragged up from the SW."







I wish I could see a drying out, but it's simply not there.



It is there on recent GFS runs though. Granted the ECM doesn't seem to agree - but there must be a possibility of a change given that three or four GFS runs have suggested a settling down round the 12th. I certainly hope so!



I can't see anything "springlike" until that happens though, for weather to be "springlike" it's got to be settled as well as mild: otherwise it's just plain autumnal!

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Someone on December 12th should have said:-

Forecast:-

**From now till T+1440 it it will be mild, very wet and very windy**

Now that would have been good! As far as I can find anywhere nobody did

hence the reason I ignore seasonal forecasts.

Dave

*))

On Saturday, February 1, 2014 9:57:11 AM UTC, Nick wrote:
On Saturday, February 1, 2014 9:31:47 AM UTC, Dawlish wrote:

In with the new weather; same as the old weather..........but perhaps a little milder:







**At T+240 on 11th Feb, the UK will be experiencing weather with an Atlantic source. Low pressures crossing the UK will lead to generally wet and windy weather. Temperatures will be above average, with only ridges of high pressure providing respites, with the possibility of frost and fog. Snow is very unlikely, except on Northern hills in the lee of any depressions and as the fronts approach, but in advance of the depressions, we may see mild, springlike weather, as air is dragged up from the SW."







I wish I could see a drying out, but it's simply not there.



It is there on recent GFS runs though. Granted the ECM doesn't seem to agree - but there must be a possibility of a change given that three or four GFS runs have suggested a settling down round the 12th. I certainly hope so!



I can't see anything "springlike" until that happens though, for weather to be "springlike" it's got to be settled as well as mild: otherwise it's just plain autumnal!

On the days when and if this happens, it will be settled - albeit for a short time. I do hope there will be one, or two, in this period and I think there may well be.

Someone on December 12th should have said:-
Forecast:-
**From now till T+1440 it it will be mild, very wet and very windy**
Now that would have been good! As far as I can find anywhere nobody did
hence the reason I ignore seasonal forecasts.

Spot on Dave!
Forecast for Winter 2013/2014........................ 'mild, wet and windy
for the next 3 months'
When I said back in mid December it reminds me of the 1988/89 Winter, at
least then we had mild and drier spells.
Even a Bartlett high would do me at the moment, this sh*t* is never ending!
We don't need to look at those silly weather charts, just say mild, wet and
windy weather until at least March 1st
Roll on April!


Graham

On Saturday, February 1, 2014 7:41:48 PM UTC, Graham wrote:
Someone on December 12th should have said:-

Forecast:-

**From now till T+1440 it it will be mild, very wet and very windy**

Now that would have been good! As far as I can find anywhere nobody did

hence the reason I ignore seasonal forecasts.



Spot on Dave!

Forecast for Winter 2013/2014........................ 'mild, wet and windy

for the next 3 months'

When I said back in mid December it reminds me of the 1988/89 Winter, at

least then we had mild and drier spells.

Even a Bartlett high would do me at the moment, this sh*t* is never ending!

We don't need to look at those silly weather charts, just say mild, wet and

windy weather until at least March 1st

Roll on April!





Graham

Nothing this morning that would lead anyone to believe that Feb will be any drier than Jan - at least towards the end of the first half of the month. Weather warnings for the SW Mon/Tue/Wed and the following weekend looks like it could be a repeat.

On Saturday, February 1, 2014 9:31:47 AM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
In with the new weather; same as the old weather..........but perhaps a little milder:



**At T+240 on 11th Feb, the UK will be experiencing weather with an Atlantic source. Low pressures crossing the UK will lead to generally wet and windy weather. Temperatures will be above average, with only ridges of high pressure providing respites, with the possibility of frost and fog. Snow is very unlikely, except on Northern hills in the lee of any depressions and as the fronts approach, but in advance of the depressions, we may see mild, springlike weather, as air is dragged up from the SW."



I wish I could see a drying out, but it's simply not there.

Temperatures for Feb so far are above average, but today's temperatures aren't and snow has been falling at lower altitudes, in a few areas, than I was expecting and that models were showing 10 days ago. However, models were predicting the continuation of zonal conditions accurately.

Temperatures for Feb so far are above average, but today's temperatures
aren't and snow has been falling at lower altitudes, in a few areas, than I
was expecting and that models were showing 10 days ago. However, models
were predicting the continuation of zonal conditions accurately.

Have you had enough of zonality yet?

Maybe you wished too hard for it back in November as you hate the snow so
much


Graham (snowy Staffs)

On Tuesday, February 11, 2014 8:58:47 PM UTC, Graham wrote:
Temperatures for Feb so far are above average, but today's temperatures

aren't and snow has been falling at lower altitudes, in a few areas, than I

was expecting and that models were showing 10 days ago. However, models

were predicting the continuation of zonal conditions accurately.



Have you had enough of zonality yet?

If I'd forecast high pressure, or a screaming northerly, would you be happier?

Maybe you wished too hard for it back in November as you hate the snow so

much

I wished for zonality?? I hate snow?? Where do you get these ideas from Graham? Certainly not from me.

I forecast the weather at 10 days because, with an 80% accuracy, I know when the models can be trusted at 10 days. 10 days ago, the models could be trusted and showed Atlantic weather. You might think the weather is somehow my fault, but that's a claim I don't think I can make! *))


Graham (snowy Staffs)

Paul (wet Dawlish; again)