Looks like equalling the 1999 marine flooding tomorrow for the late
evening high tides for central southern England, despite being well
below astronomical spring tide heights
Residual = excess height of water over predicted astronomical tide height
http://www.ntslf.org/numerical-model...ort=Portsmouth
http://www.ntslf.org/numerical-model...rt=Bournemouth
and recently each 6 hour run output has incremented higher than the
earlier output for the major surge propogations

tide times
http://www.ntslf.org/tides/predictions

"N_Cook" wrote

Looks like equalling the 1999 marine flooding tomorrow
for the late evening high tides for central southern
England, despite being well below astronomical spring
tide heights

If it comes off as predicted, that would put high water about half a metre
higher than the highest tide I've ever seen in Langstone Harbour... and that
was disturbingly close to the top of the sea wall.

I'm more sure than ever that moving uphill was a good decision.

On 13/02/2014 17:17, Togless wrote:
"N_Cook" wrote

Looks like equalling the 1999 marine flooding tomorrow
for the late evening high tides for central southern
England, despite being well below astronomical spring
tide heights

If it comes off as predicted, that would put high water about half a
metre higher than the highest tide I've ever seen in Langstone
Harbour... and that was disturbingly close to the top of the sea wall.

I'm more sure than ever that moving uphill was a good decision.


Generally tides are about 0.2m higher in Portsmouth than Southampton.
Recent record exceptional high tides at Southampton were 5.6m in 1999
and 5.7m in 1989 so perhaps 5.8m and 5.9m in Langstone.

Is the geopotentials
http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map....eur&size=large
putting tomorrows LOW on a more southerly track than the METO were
projecting?
If it ended up going up the English Channel it would be more serious

On Thursday, February 13, 2014 5:55:03 PM UTC, N_Cook wrote:
On 13/02/2014 17:17, Togless wrote:

"N_Cook" wrote



Looks like equalling the 1999 marine flooding tomorrow

for the late evening high tides for central southern

England, despite being well below astronomical spring

tide heights



If it comes off as predicted, that would put high water about half a

metre higher than the highest tide I've ever seen in Langstone

Harbour... and that was disturbingly close to the top of the sea wall.



I'm more sure than ever that moving uphill was a good decision.





Generally tides are about 0.2m higher in Portsmouth than Southampton.

Recent record exceptional high tides at Southampton were 5.6m in 1999

and 5.7m in 1989 so perhaps 5.8m and 5.9m in Langstone.



Is the geopotentials

http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map....eur&size=large

putting tomorrows LOW on a more southerly track than the METO were

projecting?

If it ended up going up the English Channel it would be more serious

A track of that nature would put the sea wall directly in the firing line again, but neither the 12z gfs, nor the 12z ECM show this. As it stands, the weakened areas of the wall will take another battering. I hope no-one is planning to get into and out of the far SW by train for quite a while. It's a bleak outlook for both the Levels and the coastline. *((

On 13/02/2014 19:06, Dawlish wrote:
On Thursday, February 13, 2014 5:55:03 PM UTC, N_Cook wrote:
On 13/02/2014 17:17, Togless wrote:

"N_Cook" wrote



Looks like equalling the 1999 marine flooding tomorrow

for the late evening high tides for central southern

England, despite being well below astronomical spring

tide heights



If it comes off as predicted, that would put high water about half a

metre higher than the highest tide I've ever seen in Langstone

Harbour... and that was disturbingly close to the top of the sea wall.



I'm more sure than ever that moving uphill was a good decision.





Generally tides are about 0.2m higher in Portsmouth than Southampton.

Recent record exceptional high tides at Southampton were 5.6m in 1999

and 5.7m in 1989 so perhaps 5.8m and 5.9m in Langstone.



Is the geopotentials

http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map....eur&size=large

putting tomorrows LOW on a more southerly track than the METO were

projecting?

If it ended up going up the English Channel it would be more serious

A track of that nature would put the sea wall directly in the firing line again, but neither the 12z gfs, nor the 12z ECM show this. As it stands, the weakened areas of the wall will take another battering. I hope no-one is planning to get into and out of the far SW by train for quite a while. It's a bleak outlook for both the Levels and the coastline. *((


The geopotentials have stopped drifting south, going north again. I'm
not used to depressions that don't just track straight across the UK.
Tomorrow is the last time the locked-in jetstream will be sending
depressions up around the Scandinavian High. No longer locked into the
path east of the rockies past us and on to west of Scandinavia , for the
last 2 months

On 13/02/2014 14:19, N_Cook wrote:
Looks like equalling the 1999 marine flooding tomorrow for the late
evening high tides for central southern England, despite being well
below astronomical spring tide heights
Residual = excess height of water over predicted astronomical tide height
http://www.ntslf.org/numerical-model...ort=Portsmouth

http://www.ntslf.org/numerical-model...rt=Bournemouth

and recently each 6 hour run output has incremented higher than the
earlier output for the major surge propogations

tide times
http://www.ntslf.org/tides/predictions

In line for exceeding the 1989 life-time extreme tide of 5.7m for
Southampton tonight, on the way to exceeding the 1924 record of 6.0m
tide, currently we will get a 5.8m tide at 23:15 tonight.
Likely to increase that after the noon and 18:00 Proudman/NOC TTSLF
surge runs later taday.
Of course emergency services would get their fingers out warning
residents, until its too late ant they are overstretched to do anything.
Up to us locals to do the warning this afternoon

For this evening 14 Feb , shipping forecast
Selsey Bill to Lyme Regis ...
southwest gale 8 to storm 10, perhaps violent storm 11 for a time later.

St Denys flooding of 14 Feb 2014, 5.6m above CD. From the NTSLF surge
model predictions it looked as though it would be the highest since the
1924 flood, looking like 5.8 or 5.9m with severe gale force 11 and
huricane force gusts, although a half-hearted springs tide height of
only 4.4m, in the end just 5.6m, 1.2m surge.
http://diverse.4mg.com/flood_14_feb_2014.jpg
Pics about 23:00 to 23:20 around the Priory Rd public hard, St Denys,
Southampton. EA provided a pathetic 2 sandbags per low-lying household,
a number had marine flooding indoors