I spend a couple of days in London (where the weather was actually gorgeous and Waterloo sunset on Friday was simply magnificent) to see something we haven't seen on a weather chart for months.........the Azores High pushing NE towards us. Cool, as we'd be on that NE limb, but some lovely sunny days, if it achieves outcome.

I would *love* this to be still on the charts tomorrow evening and it not be just a short-lived calm period after the colder plunge which is likely to follow the coming week's wet and windy weather. Could this possibly herald the end of the zonal train?? MetO says "No!" in the 6-15 day forecast. See how the models develop; the Meto has done very well in its 10-day thoughts, throughout the winter; perhaps this time they may not be as accurate.

On Saturday, February 22, 2014 7:59:59 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
I spend a couple of days in London (where the weather was actually gorgeous and Waterloo sunset on Friday was simply magnificent) to see something we haven't seen on a weather chart for months.........the Azores High pushing NE towards us. Cool, as we'd be on that NE limb, but some lovely sunny days, if it achieves outcome.



I would *love* this to be still on the charts tomorrow evening and it not be just a short-lived calm period after the colder plunge which is likely to follow the coming week's wet and windy weather. Could this possibly herald the end of the zonal train?? MetO says "No!" in the 6-15 day forecast. See how the models develop; the Meto has done very well in its 10-day thoughts, throughout the winter; perhaps this time they may not be as accurate.

Still there after next weekend on both the gfs and ECM, but in my view, everything ATM post T+240 suggests it won't last and zonal will re-establish itself...........

On Sunday, February 23, 2014 10:15:59 AM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Saturday, February 22, 2014 7:59:59 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:

I spend a couple of days in London (where the weather was actually gorgeous and Waterloo sunset on Friday was simply magnificent) to see something we haven't seen on a weather chart for months.........the Azores High pushing NE towards us. Cool, as we'd be on that NE limb, but some lovely sunny days, if it achieves outcome.







I would *love* this to be still on the charts tomorrow evening and it not be just a short-lived calm period after the colder plunge which is likely to follow the coming week's wet and windy weather. Could this possibly herald the end of the zonal train?? MetO says "No!" in the 6-15 day forecast. See how the models develop; the Meto has done very well in its 10-day thoughts, throughout the winter; perhaps this time they may not be as accurate.



Still there after next weekend on both the gfs and ECM, but in my view, everything ATM post T+240 suggests it won't last and zonal will re-establish itself...........

Tantalising, isn't it, but I would favour a re-establishment of the zonal conditions, after a short, but very pleasant spell of fine and dry weather in the south early next week.

Tantalising, isn't it, but I would favour a re-establishment of the zonal conditions, after a short, but very pleasant spell of fine and dry weather in the south early next week.

Very tantalising. Three days reference now and still not confident enough to forecast. Or is it a forecast, I'm not sure?

On Monday, February 24, 2014 1:25:40 PM UTC, David Mitchell wrote:
Tantalising, isn't it, but I would favour a re-establishment of the zonal conditions, after a short, but very pleasant spell of fine and dry weather in the south early next week.



Very tantalising. Three days reference now and still not confident enough to forecast. Or is it a forecast, I'm not sure?

Good for you. I know you have difficulties with comprehension - and clearly with stalking. *))

Good for you. I know you have difficulties with comprehension - and clearly with stalking. *))

Good for me! For what? Comprehension is only an issue due to your lack of clarity.
Stalking? You sad man. If I had any intention of stalking anyone (which I never would), I can assure you it wouldn't be you. I think you have an issue comprehending the meaning of stalking.

On Monday, February 24, 2014 12:36:35 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, February 23, 2014 10:15:59 AM UTC, Dawlish wrote:

On Saturday, February 22, 2014 7:59:59 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:



I spend a couple of days in London (where the weather was actually gorgeous and Waterloo sunset on Friday was simply magnificent) to see something we haven't seen on a weather chart for months.........the Azores High pushing NE towards us. Cool, as we'd be on that NE limb, but some lovely sunny days, if it achieves outcome.















I would *love* this to be still on the charts tomorrow evening and it not be just a short-lived calm period after the colder plunge which is likely to follow the coming week's wet and windy weather. Could this possibly herald the end of the zonal train?? MetO says "No!" in the 6-15 day forecast. See how the models develop; the Meto has done very well in its 10-day thoughts, throughout the winter; perhaps this time they may not be as accurate.







Still there after next weekend on both the gfs and ECM, but in my view, everything ATM post T+240 suggests it won't last and zonal will re-establish itself...........



Tantalising, isn't it, but I would favour a re-establishment of the zonal conditions, after a short, but very pleasant spell of fine and dry weather in the south early next week.

And amazingly the 12z ECM actually erases any possibility of high pressure building towards the UK for the next 10 days. Quite incredible and I was absolutely correct not to forecast this. The method worked again and the possibilities shown in the models 3 days ago, at the start of next week, are now likely (and unfortunately) to be no more than smoke and mirrors..........unless you set store only by the gfs!

On Monday, February 24, 2014 12:36:35 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, February 23, 2014 10:15:59 AM UTC, Dawlish wrote:

On Saturday, February 22, 2014 7:59:59 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:



I spend a couple of days in London (where the weather was actually gorgeous and Waterloo sunset on Friday was simply magnificent) to see something we haven't seen on a weather chart for months.........the Azores High pushing NE towards us. Cool, as we'd be on that NE limb, but some lovely sunny days, if it achieves outcome.















I would *love* this to be still on the charts tomorrow evening and it not be just a short-lived calm period after the colder plunge which is likely to follow the coming week's wet and windy weather. Could this possibly herald the end of the zonal train?? MetO says "No!" in the 6-15 day forecast. See how the models develop; the Meto has done very well in its 10-day thoughts, throughout the winter; perhaps this time they may not be as accurate.







Still there after next weekend on both the gfs and ECM, but in my view, everything ATM post T+240 suggests it won't last and zonal will re-establish itself...........



Tantalising, isn't it, but I would favour a re-establishment of the zonal conditions, after a short, but very pleasant spell of fine and dry weather in the south early next week.

Again, spring beginning to show on the models at T+240. See if it remains there!

On Thursday, February 27, 2014 6:21:42 AM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Monday, February 24, 2014 12:36:35 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:

On Sunday, February 23, 2014 10:15:59 AM UTC, Dawlish wrote:



On Saturday, February 22, 2014 7:59:59 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:







I spend a couple of days in London (where the weather was actually gorgeous and Waterloo sunset on Friday was simply magnificent) to see something we haven't seen on a weather chart for months.........the Azores High pushing NE towards us. Cool, as we'd be on that NE limb, but some lovely sunny days, if it achieves outcome.































I would *love* this to be still on the charts tomorrow evening and it not be just a short-lived calm period after the colder plunge which is likely to follow the coming week's wet and windy weather. Could this possibly herald the end of the zonal train?? MetO says "No!" in the 6-15 day forecast. See how the models develop; the Meto has done very well in its 10-day thoughts, throughout the winter; perhaps this time they may not be as accurate.















Still there after next weekend on both the gfs and ECM, but in my view, everything ATM post T+240 suggests it won't last and zonal will re-establish itself...........







Tantalising, isn't it, but I would favour a re-establishment of the zonal conditions, after a short, but very pleasant spell of fine and dry weather in the south early next week.



Again, spring beginning to show on the models at T+240. See if it remains there!

Well just looked there this morning. The continuing zonal MetO output from earlier this week may well be proved wrong. Signs that they are changing their mind in the 6-15 day précis:

UK Outlook for Tuesday 4 Mar 2014 to Thursday 13 Mar 2014:

During the first week of March conditions look set to continue to remain unsettled with further showers or longer spells of rain. The heaviest and most persistent rain most likely across northern and western areas, with some snow possible, mainly over northern hills. Windy at times, with a risk of gales in the exposed north and west. Some drier and brighter periods are also likely, especially across southern and eastern parts. Temperatures generally fairly normal for the time of year, with a risk of overnight frost and icy patches in quieter interludes. Through into the following week, conditions are likely to remain changeable with further wet and windy weather, *but there are some indications that conditions may become more settled later, especially in the south.*

Updated: 1203 on Thu 27 Feb 2014

Another couple of runs and further agreement between the models would be enough to confirm a forecast of high pressure affecting the UK at T+240, for me.