The signs that an El Nino is in its nascent stages have been increasing over the last couple of months. Of course, this would have large implications for the weather around the Pacific rim, but it will also have implications for global temperatures, which will almost certainly rise to record-breaking levels, during the next El Nino.This is especially likely, given the near record temperatures presently. With the PDO in a negative phase and after almost three solid years of below-average temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific and two La Nina spells during that time, one would not expect global temperatures to be so close to the warmest ever recorded.

Updates from satellite measures early next week (UAH and RSS) and then surface measures (NOAA and GISS) mid-month will probably show a continuing picture of global warmth, despite indications that the global temperature ought to be cooler. Typically, global temperatures lag changes in temperature of Nino regions by about 3-6 months and throughout that period, ENSO was neutral and equatorial Pacific temperatures were close to La Nina levels:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...ry/index.shtml

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/