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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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Here is a summary of the latest NWP output, for noon (GMT) on Sunday. Issued
0557z, 1/10/03. ECMWF: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif Westerlies cover the UK, with a ridge over the North Sea and a deep Icelandic low. The low deepens and moves eastwards at T+144, bringing westerly gales for all. The gales continue at T+168, as the low fills slightly to the west of Norway. MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html The Met Office run places a deep low over the Faroes, leading to strong to gale force westerlies over the UK. The winds become strong WNW'lies at T+144 as the low deepens and moves eastwards. GFS: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1081.gif A weak ridge covers the UK, bringing westerlies and NW'lies. As with the ECM run, westerly gales then move over the UK, with 850hPa temperatures ranging from +1C over NW Scotland to +6C over NW Wales. The gales continue at T+144, with a deep low to the north of Scotland, followed by slightly lighter NW'lies and WNW'lies at T+168 as the low fills over southern Norway. A new low to the NNW of Scotland brings strong WSW'lies for all on day 8, followed by NW'lies and WNW'lies on day 9 as it moves eastwards and deepens. Day 10 sees strong NW'lies for all, with the deepening low now over Shetland and a secondary low over the North Sea. GEM: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1201.gif The UK lies under westerlies from a weak ridge overhead. The winds become westerly gales at T+120, with low pressure between Iceland and Scotland. 850hPa temperatures range from +3C over northern Scotland to +7C over Cornwall. The gales continue at T+144, as the low deepens in situ. JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html The Japanese run shows a ridge over Ireland, with NW'lies for the UK. 850hPa temperatures range from -7C over northern Scotland to -3C over Cornwall. Strong northerlies cover much of the UK at T+144, due to a small low over the North Sea. By T+168 the low moves away, leaving WNW'lies for all. Model overlay charts (GEM/GFS/JMA): http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da.../ens/pslv.html The chart shows a weak ridge over the UK, bringing westerlies for most. In summary, today's runs show that after the cold plunge this weekend, an unsettled and windy spell is likely, with a good chance of strong to gale force westerlies across the UK by Tuesday. |
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