**Retrogression of the current high, westwards into the Atlantic, will introduce a flow between west and north at T+240. As well as becoming increasingly unsettled from the NW, this flow will see cooler than average temperatures (for start of the last third of the month) for most areas of the UK, by the 20th. Frosts will be widespread if skies clear and snow over the hills may be followed by wintry showers over lower ground behind any disturbances in that flow**

A very different forecast from my last two, but there is agreement and consistency in the models, hence I have 80%+ confidence in the forecast.

Dawlish wrote:
**Retrogression of the current high, westwards into the Atlantic, will introduce a flow between west and north at T+240. As well as becoming increasingly unsettled from the NW, this flow will see cooler than average temperatures (for start of the last third of the month) for most areas of the UK, by the 20th. Frosts will be widespread if skies clear and snow over the hills may be followed by wintry showers over lower ground behind any disturbances in that flow**

A very different forecast from my last two, but there is agreement and consistency in the models, hence I have 80%+ confidence in the forecast.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Yes I'm sure that will come to fruition. Been monitoring the 19th as I
have a golf day then at it looked bloody chilly!

On Monday, March 10, 2014 11:14:38 PM UTC, Dave Cornwell wrote:
Dawlish wrote:

**Retrogression of the current high, westwards into the Atlantic, will introduce a flow between west and north at T+240. As well as becoming increasingly unsettled from the NW, this flow will see cooler than average temperatures (for start of the last third of the month) for most areas of the UK, by the 20th. Frosts will be widespread if skies clear and snow over the hills may be followed by wintry showers over lower ground behind any disturbances in that flow**



A very different forecast from my last two, but there is agreement and consistency in the models, hence I have 80%+ confidence in the forecast.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Yes I'm sure that will come to fruition. Been monitoring the 19th as I

have a golf day then at it looked bloody chilly!

*))

On Monday, March 10, 2014 11:14:38 PM UTC, Dave Cornwell wrote:
Dawlish wrote:

**Retrogression of the current high, westwards into the Atlantic, will introduce a flow between west and north at T+240. As well as becoming increasingly unsettled from the NW, this flow will see cooler than average temperatures (for start of the last third of the month) for most areas of the UK, by the 20th. Frosts will be widespread if skies clear and snow over the hills may be followed by wintry showers over lower ground behind any disturbances in that flow**



A very different forecast from my last two, but there is agreement and consistency in the models, hence I have 80%+ confidence in the forecast.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Yes I'm sure that will come to fruition. Been monitoring the 19th as I

have a golf day then at it looked bloody chilly!

Two days on and only the gfs operational is not showing this scenario. I'm confident the retrogression will occur and cooler weather will be affecting the UK on the 20th.

On Wednesday, 12 March 2014 21:03:50 UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Monday, March 10, 2014 11:14:38 PM UTC, Dave Cornwell wrote:

Dawlish wrote:



**Retrogression of the current high, westwards into the Atlantic, will introduce a flow between west and north at T+240. As well as becoming increasingly unsettled from the NW, this flow will see cooler than average temperatures (for start of the last third of the month) for most areas of the UK, by the 20th. Frosts will be widespread if skies clear and snow over the hills may be followed by wintry showers over lower ground behind any disturbances in that flow**







A very different forecast from my last two, but there is agreement and consistency in the models, hence I have 80%+ confidence in the forecast.



-------------------------------------------------------------------



Yes I'm sure that will come to fruition. Been monitoring the 19th as I



have a golf day then at it looked bloody chilly!



Two days on and only the gfs operational is not showing this scenario. I'm confident the retrogression will occur and cooler weather will be affecting the UK on the 20th.

Can you be more specific, cooler or colder, are you talking retrogression far west enough to herald a northerly? Your forecast for the 20th is a tad vague at the moment.

Dawlish wrote:
**Retrogression of the current high, westwards into the Atlantic, will introduce a flow between west and north at T+240. As well as becoming increasingly unsettled from the NW, this flow will see cooler than average temperatures (for start of the last third of the month) for most areas of the UK, by the 20th. Frosts will be widespread if skies clear and snow over the hills may be followed by wintry showers over lower ground behind any disturbances in that flow**

A very different forecast from my last two, but there is agreement and consistency in the models, hence I have 80%+ confidence in the forecast.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
It looks like the models have let you down very slightly but only by a
day or so. By Friday the above scenario looks very likely. I know I risk
abuse but a fact is a fact. You have demonstrated that on just a few
occasions a year it is possible to get a worthwhile 10 day forecast from
the models. It is not much use as a forecast because it is so infrequent
and no one knows when they will come along. It is still useful
information though, as it confirms factually how far we have to go to
get a decent 10 day forecast.
Dave

On Thursday, March 20, 2014 1:22:26 AM UTC, Dave Cornwell wrote:
Dawlish wrote:

**Retrogression of the current high, westwards into the Atlantic, will introduce a flow between west and north at T+240. As well as becoming increasingly unsettled from the NW, this flow will see cooler than average temperatures (for start of the last third of the month) for most areas of the UK, by the 20th. Frosts will be widespread if skies clear and snow over the hills may be followed by wintry showers over lower ground behind any disturbances in that flow**



A very different forecast from my last two, but there is agreement and consistency in the models, hence I have 80%+ confidence in the forecast.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

It looks like the models have let you down very slightly

The models could not be fully trusted, 10 days ago, would be a better assessment.

but only by a

day or so. By Friday the above scenario looks very likely. I know I risk

abuse but a fact is a fact.

Yes, thanks Dave. *((

Why on earth would you risk abuse? I'd love you to point to a single forecast where any person who has given a worthwhile assessment has in any was suffered any "abuse". You have certainly *never* received that and neither has anyone else giving a reasonable assessment of any of the approx 150 forecasts I have made. Where you could get this from is a mystery and if you can point to *one* example, I'd love to see it, as would others, I'm sure. If not, please retract that statement. That is certainly not abuse, BTW. It's a reasonable response to a pretty foul little snipe.

Your assessment of the forecast is good and much of it I would agree with Dave. 20% of the time these forecasts are not correct. By the end of today, the cooler air will have covered most of the country, with snow showers over the Scottish mountains and the high has certainly retrogressed. I'll return to it fully later in the day.


You have demonstrated that on just a few

occasions a year it is possible to get a worthwhile 10 day forecast from

the models.

No. I only forecast with 3-day gaps, at least, between forecasts to stop criticism that I could be milking a particular established set-up to increase my percentage accuracy and I always have. Most times, I forecast at a change, as I have done here. I think I could do this type of forecast on, perhaps, 10% of days in the year and be at least 80% accurate with the method I use, if I forecasted on every day during what I saw as an established set-up

It is not much use as a forecast because it is so infrequent

and no one knows when they will come along.

Well no; that's because no-one knows when the models will turn accurate at 10 days! On the days when I do forecast and you were planning an activity which was weather dependent, buying insurance for that event, or not, could save you an awful lot of money

It is still useful

information though, as it confirms factually how far we have to go to

get a decent 10 day forecast.

Agreed. No-one can forecast at 10 days on a regular basis; it is impossible ATM. Any improvement on that to say when a forecast is likely to be correct is surely useful? Down to individual opinion, of course.




Dave

snip

and the high has certainly retrogressed.
I disagree. The pattern is progressive. There hasn't been any
retrogression.

I'll return to it fully later in the day
Good

--
Freddie
Castle Pulverbatch
Shropshire
221m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
http://twitter.com/PulverbatchWx for hourly reports

On Thursday, March 20, 2014 11:09:13 AM UTC, Freddie wrote:
snip



and the high has certainly retrogressed.

I disagree. The pattern is progressive. There hasn't been any

retrogression.


=======

I fully concur, Freddie. It's clearly progressive.

Stephen.

On Thursday, March 20, 2014 11:36:27 AM UTC, Stephen Davenport wrote:
On Thursday, March 20, 2014 11:09:13 AM UTC, Freddie wrote:

snip







and the high has certainly retrogressed.



I disagree. The pattern is progressive. There hasn't been any



retrogression.





=======



I fully concur, Freddie. It's clearly progressive.



Stephen.

I fully concur as well. The pattern is clearly progressive. (is there an echo???).