NOAA update:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...-fcsts-web.pdf

.......and a "wrap up" from the Aussie BOM

Increased chance of El Niño in 2014
Issued on Tuesday 25 March 2014 | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO
While the tropical Pacific Ocean remains El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral, the chance of an El Niño occurring in 2014 has increased. The latest climate model survey by the Bureau shows that the tropical Pacific is likely to warm in the coming months, with most models showing sea surface temperatures reaching El Niño thresholds during the southern hemisphere winter.
Observations indicate that the tropical Pacific Ocean is currently warming. Following two strong westerly wind bursts since the start of the year, waters below the surface of the tropical Pacific have warmed significantly over the past two months. This has led to some warming at the surface, with further warming expected in the coming weeks. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has dropped to -13--the lowest 30-day value since March 2010--but would need to remain firmly negative for several weeks to indicate the atmosphere and ocean are reinforcing each other.

Next update expected on 8 April 2014 | print version

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

An El Nino would be extremely likely to lead to record global temperatures in the era of measurements.

On Tuesday, 25 March 2014 18:40:19 UTC, Dawlish wrote:
NOAA update:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...-fcsts-web.pdf



......and a "wrap up" from the Aussie BOM



Increased chance of El Niño in 2014

Issued on Tuesday 25 March 2014 | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO

While the tropical Pacific Ocean remains El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral, the chance of an El Niño occurring in 2014 has increased. The latest climate model survey by the Bureau shows that the tropical Pacific is likely to warm in the coming months, with most models showing sea surface temperatures reaching El Niño thresholds during the southern hemisphere winter.

Observations indicate that the tropical Pacific Ocean is currently warming. Following two strong westerly wind bursts since the start of the year, waters below the surface of the tropical Pacific have warmed significantly over the past two months. This has led to some warming at the surface, with further warming expected in the coming weeks. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has dropped to -13--the lowest 30-day value since March 2010--but would need to remain firmly negative for several weeks to indicate the atmosphere and ocean are reinforcing each other.



Next update expected on 8 April 2014 | print version



http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/



An El Nino would be extremely likely to lead to record global temperatures in the era of measurements.

And ?

On Tuesday, 25 March 2014 12:29:08 UTC-7, Lawrence Jenkins wrote:
On Tuesday, 25 March 2014 18:40:19 UTC, Dawlish wrote: NOAA update: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...-fcsts-web.pdf ......and a "wrap up" from the Aussie BOM Increased chance of El Niño in 2014 Issued on Tuesday 25 March 2014 | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO While the tropical Pacific Ocean remains El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral, the chance of an El Niño occurring in 2014 has increased. The latest climate model survey by the Bureau shows that the tropical Pacific is likely to warm in the coming months, with most models showing sea surface temperatures reaching El Niño thresholds during the southern hemisphere winter. Observations indicate that the tropical Pacific Ocean is currently warming. Following two strong westerly wind bursts since the start of the year, waters below the surface of the tropical Pacific have warmed significantly over the past two months.. This has led to some warming at the surface, with further warming expected in the coming weeks. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has dropped to -13--the lowest 30-day value since March 2010--but would need to remain firmly negative for several weeks to indicate the atmosphere and ocean are reinforcing each other. Next update expected on 8 April 2014 | print version http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/ An El Nino would be extremely likely to lead to record global temperatures in the era of measurements. And ?

Now come on, leave poor Paul alone. You know all he has it cut and paste from the aussie bom. Interpreting it is far too much for his feeble mind.