Aussie BOM:

El Niño likely in 2014

Issued on Tuesday 22 April 2014

The likelihood of El Niño remains high, with all climate models surveyed by the Bureau now indicating El Niño is likely to occur in 2014. Six of the seven models suggest El Niño thresholds may be exceeded as early as July.
The Pacific Ocean has been warming along the equator over recent weeks, with continued warming in the central Pacific likely in coming months. Another burst of westerly winds is presently occurring in the western Pacific, and is likely to cause further warming of the sub-surface.
El Niño has an impact across much of the world, including below average rainfall in the western Pacific and Indonesian regions, and increased rainfall in the central and eastern Pacific. For Australia, El Niño is usually associated with below average rainfall, with about two thirds of El Niño events since 1900 resulting in major drought over large areas of Australia.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently in a neutral state. Model outlooks currently suggest the IOD is likely to remain neutral through late autumn and early winter, with two of the five models surveyed suggesting a positive IOD may develop by early spring. Positive IOD events often coincide with El Niño and are typically associated with large parts of southern and central Australia experiencing lower rainfall than usual.

Next update expected on 6 May 2014

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

NOAA:

Summary

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch

ENSO-neutral conditions continue.
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SST) were above-average near the International Date Line and in the east-central Pacific.
While ENSO-neutral is favored for Northern Hemisphere spring 2014, the chances of El Niño increase during the remainder of the year, exceeding 50% by summer.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...-fcsts-web.pdf

Note: there is usually a 3-6 month lag between changes in ENSO and the response of global temperatures to the change.