A pretty horrible start to the last third of May. I hope it doesn't set the pattern for the coming summer.

**On 20th May at T+240, the weather in the UK will be dominated by a fairly slow moving low pressure system. Many areas will be showery and some may be experiencing periods of extended rain. Any sunshine between the showers will feel warm, but temperatures will be around, or below average in many areas.**

Probably not the best time to book a short break in the UK.

On Saturday, 10 May 2014 08:41:08 UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
A pretty horrible start to the last third of May. I hope it doesn't set the pattern for the coming summer.



**On 20th May at T+240, the weather in the UK will be dominated by a fairly slow moving low pressure system. Many areas will be showery and some may be experiencing periods of extended rain. Any sunshine between the showers will feel warm, but temperatures will be around, or below average in many areas.**



Probably not the best time to book a short break in the UK.

Is that your prediction or the models or if and when they change then you'll change your forecast. Lets get this straight. are you purely commentating on the latest model outputs or are you laying claim to being some kind of forecaster because I still don't quite understand these posts of yours and what they are meant to be.

Lawrence Jenkins wrote:
On Saturday, 10 May 2014 08:41:08 UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
A pretty horrible start to the last third of May. I hope it doesn't set the pattern for the coming summer.



**On 20th May at T+240, the weather in the UK will be dominated by a fairly slow moving low pressure system. Many areas will be showery and some may be experiencing periods of extended rain. Any sunshine between the showers will feel warm, but temperatures will be around, or below average in many areas.**



Probably not the best time to book a short break in the UK.

Is that your prediction or the models or if and when they change then you'll change your forecast. Lets get this straight. are you purely commentating on the latest model outputs or are you laying claim to being some kind of forecaster because I still don't quite understand these posts of yours and what they are meant to be.
----------------------------------------------
Christ Lawrence. You don't have to agree with his methods or think that
it is anything spectacular but there must have been so many threads
debating and explaining this I can't believe you've missed them. For
what it's worth it is a commentary on the models when all of them (or at
least the ones Paul uses)show 80% consistency at 10 days (not sure on
the exact criteria for this, whether it's temp, pressure, system
positions etc). SO these consistent models are purportedly showing what
Paul states and this is a forecast based on them. It is a rare event as
they don't often have this consistency. He doesn't change it and after
10 days you can see if the models got it right or not.

On Saturday, 10 May 2014 22:01:37 UTC+1, Dave Cornwell wrote:
Lawrence Jenkins wrote:

On Saturday, 10 May 2014 08:41:08 UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:

A pretty horrible start to the last third of May. I hope it doesn't set the pattern for the coming summer.







**On 20th May at T+240, the weather in the UK will be dominated by a fairly slow moving low pressure system. Many areas will be showery and some may be experiencing periods of extended rain. Any sunshine between the showers will feel warm, but temperatures will be around, or below average in many areas.**







Probably not the best time to book a short break in the UK.



Is that your prediction or the models or if and when they change then you'll change your forecast. Lets get this straight. are you purely commentating on the latest model outputs or are you laying claim to being some kind of forecaster because I still don't quite understand these posts of yours and what they are meant to be.

----------------------------------------------

Christ Lawrence. You don't have to agree with his methods or think that

it is anything spectacular but there must have been so many threads

debating and explaining this I can't believe you've missed them. For

what it's worth it is a commentary on the models when all of them (or at

least the ones Paul uses)show 80% consistency at 10 days (not sure on

the exact criteria for this, whether it's temp, pressure, system

positions etc). SO these consistent models are purportedly showing what

Paul states and this is a forecast based on them. It is a rare event as

they don't often have this consistency. He doesn't change it and after

10 days you can see if the models got it right or not.




Do you actually think I read every thread started by a man who calls me idiot every second word!!!!!! Jesus wept Dave why would I do that?

Lawrence Jenkins wrote:
On Saturday, 10 May 2014 22:01:37 UTC+1, Dave Cornwell wrote:
Lawrence Jenkins wrote:

On Saturday, 10 May 2014 08:41:08 UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
A pretty horrible start to the last third of May. I hope it doesn't set the pattern for the coming summer.
**On 20th May at T+240, the weather in the UK will be dominated by a fairly slow moving low pressure system. Many areas will be showery and some may be experiencing periods of extended rain. Any sunshine between the showers will feel warm, but temperatures will be around, or below average in many areas.**
Probably not the best time to book a short break in the UK.
Is that your prediction or the models or if and when they change then you'll change your forecast. Lets get this straight. are you purely commentating on the latest model outputs or are you laying claim to being some kind of forecaster because I still don't quite understand these posts of yours and what they are meant to be.
----------------------------------------------

Christ Lawrence. You don't have to agree with his methods or think that

it is anything spectacular but there must have been so many threads

debating and explaining this I can't believe you've missed them. For

what it's worth it is a commentary on the models when all of them (or at

least the ones Paul uses)show 80% consistency at 10 days (not sure on

the exact criteria for this, whether it's temp, pressure, system

positions etc). SO these consistent models are purportedly showing what

Paul states and this is a forecast based on them. It is a rare event as

they don't often have this consistency. He doesn't change it and after

10 days you can see if the models got it right or not.




Do you actually think I read every thread started by a man who calls me idiot every second word!!!!!! Jesus wept Dave why would I do that?
------------------------------------------------------------------
Most of his threads do seem to alternate Dawlish..
Lawrence..Dawlish...Lawrence..etc. etc. as far as I can see.:-)

On Saturday, May 10, 2014 10:51:39 PM UTC+1, Lawrence Jenkins wrote:

Do you actually think I read every thread started by a man who calls me idiot every second word!!!!!! Jesus wept Dave why would I do that?

Oh yes you do. Unfortunately, you lack any capability to learn - exactly what Dave said.

On Saturday, May 10, 2014 8:41:08 AM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
A pretty horrible start to the last third of May. I hope it doesn't set the pattern for the coming summer.



**On 20th May at T+240, the weather in the UK will be dominated by a fairly slow moving low pressure system. Many areas will be showery and some may be experiencing periods of extended rain. Any sunshine between the showers will feel warm, but temperatures will be around, or below average in many areas.**



Probably not the best time to book a short break in the UK.

Typical, I've been waiting 2 months for a forecast so I can book a break and now it doesn't look good.

On Saturday, May 10, 2014 4:54:03 PM UTC+1, David Mitchell wrote:
On Saturday, May 10, 2014 8:41:08 AM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:

A pretty horrible start to the last third of May. I hope it doesn't set the pattern for the coming summer.

Probably not the best time to book a short break in the UK.

Typical, I've been waiting 2 months for a forecast so I can book a break and now it doesn't look good.

Don't panic David, depends where your going (to state the obvious!) but I'll be off near Polzeath for 4 days from 19th. Assuming the forecasts are right 10 days out (and that would be a miracle) slack slow moving low pressure here often gives the best weather in April/May. Unstable convective air means coastal sunshine, good visibility, no sea mist, not too much wind but a good chance of a swell. (What I don't want is a strong onshore NW or high pressure to the east and a stiff chilly, cloudy SE, when it's 24C in London!)

Today was better than forecast, no showers here, windy & fairly sunny.

Graham
Penzance

Dawlish wrote:
A pretty horrible start to the last third of May. I hope it doesn't set the pattern for the coming summer.

**On 20th May at T+240, the weather in the UK will be dominated by a fairly slow moving low pressure system. Many areas will be showery and some may be experiencing periods of extended rain. Any sunshine between the showers will feel warm, but temperatures will be around, or below average in many areas.**

Probably not the best time to book a short break in the UK.
----------------------------------------------------------------
Which is e xactly what did a couple of months ago. New Forest 22nd
-27th. Always seems to happen to me when I head West from dry old Essex!
Dave

On Saturday, May 10, 2014 8:41:08 AM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
A pretty horrible start to the last third of May. I hope it doesn't set the pattern for the coming summer.



**On 20th May at T+240, the weather in the UK will be dominated by a fairly slow moving low pressure system. Many areas will be showery and some may be experiencing periods of extended rain. Any sunshine between the showers will feel warm, but temperatures will be around, or below average in many areas.**



Probably not the best time to book a short break in the UK.

Pretty good, just the temperatures are a little higher than the models were suggesting 10 days ago, but they got the general synopsis right.