You've all probably read about the research done between the UKMO and Newcastle University that points to an increase in flash flooding in the UK. This is a bit that I have clipped from the Guardian article:

Elizabeth Kendon of the Met Office, the lead author of the study, said that the
research was groundbreaking in using a high-resolution weather forecasting model to translate the likely effects of climate change into a detailed prediction of future UK summer weather.

"Until now, we haven't been able to do it in this way," she said. "This should help people to understand what is likely to happen in the summer in future. It's very important that we've detected this signal for heavier downpours in the UK. It's now for policymakers to decide what to do about it."

Some of the worst results could still be a few decades away, but the effects are already being felt and are likely to grow more severe, according to the models. But Kendon said more accurate predictions would depend on more scientific research being undertaken.

Summer rainfall is different to that typical of winter, when long-lasting steady bouts of heavy rain are common. These can cause their own flooding problems, as seen early this year when heavy rain caused widespread devastation in the UK with thousands of people forced to flee their homes.

Climate models suggest heavier winter rainfall for the UK. Summer downpours, such as those seen in 2012 when heavy rainfall followed a long period of drought, with disastrous results, are harder to predict but can take a greater toll as they are more sudden, and crops are ruined and tourism disrupted.

Kendon said: "It's the hourly rainfall rates that you look at in summer." The rain tends to fall in shorter but more intense bursts, caused by convective storms, but this has been difficult for climate models to simulate, because they lack the ability to home in on such brief events. It took the Met Office supercomputer, one of the most powerful in the world, nine months to run the necessary simulations.

(courtesy of the Guardian)

If these events are on the increase in the summer months as their research concludes, isn't it a shame that the Met Office and Environment Agency don't release 'real time' hourly rainfall data from the hundreds of automatic gauges in their network for the rest of us to see and not just for some University research?

I'm sure it is not beyond the realms of science fiction that someone else could then use that information to create a mobile app that could alert the public about any flash flooding event that is occurring now?

http://www.theguardian.com/environme...e-change-study

Kendon said: "It's the hourly rainfall rates that you look at in summer." The rain tends to fall in shorter but more intense bursts, caused by convective storms, but this has been difficult for climate models to simulate, because they lack the ability to home in on such brief events. It took the Met Office supercomputer, one of the most powerful in the world, nine months to run the necessary simulations.

If these events are on the increase in the summer months as their research concludes, isn't it a shame that the Met Office and Environment Agency don't release 'real time' hourly rainfall data from the hundreds of automatic gauges in their network for the rest of us to see and not just for some University research?

I'm sure it is not beyond the realms of science fiction that someone else could then use that information to create a mobile app that could alert the public about any flash flooding event that is occurring now?


Quite agree.

I don't understand why realtime data isn't more quickly acted upon. That might help avoid situations like the last Boscastle flood when a weather warning was issued just after the helicopters arrived to winch people off rooftops, and hours after the 1st development of thunderstorms in Cornwall. (Thunder was audible in Penzance most of the morning.)

Talking of Boscastle, many people seem to think there was only 1 similar flood in the 1950's, in fact there were 2 of similar, if not slightly greater (going by photographs) floods in that decade. It's just that 1 missed the rainguage network completely and is either ignored or details combined with the other flood. The reason so much damage was done last time was due to cars etc. being swept off the nice new NT car park into buildings & bridges. I'm sure the huge area of tarmac helped speed the water flow nicely.

Nothing's changed since car park wise of course (though the village now looks even more like a NT Theme Park than before - don't forget your Boscastle Apron & chocolate) as it was deemed such a rare event. Going by the number of similar floods in the Camelford/Wadebride/Boscastle area in the last 100 years, I don't know how that conclusion was reached. Presumable if the rainfall wasn't accurately recorded, as it wasn't on most occasions it didn't exist.

Graham
Penzance

A north Cornwall sea breeze front storm I witnessed develop
http://www.turnstone-cottage.co.uk/SrMerrynStorm.PDF

On Tuesday, 3 June 2014 09:09:15 UTC+1, exmetman wrote:
You've all probably read about the research done between the UKMO and Newcastle University that points to an increase in flash flooding in the UK. This is a bit that I have clipped from the Guardian article:



Elizabeth Kendon of the Met Office, the lead author of the study, said that the

research was groundbreaking in using a high-resolution weather forecasting model to translate the likely effects of climate change into a detailed prediction of future UK summer weather.



"Until now, we haven't been able to do it in this way," she said. "This should help people to understand what is likely to happen in the summer in future. It's very important that we've detected this signal for heavier downpours in the UK. It's now for policymakers to decide what to do about it."



Some of the worst results could still be a few decades away, but the effects are already being felt and are likely to grow more severe, according to the models. But Kendon said more accurate predictions would depend on more scientific research being undertaken.



Summer rainfall is different to that typical of winter, when long-lasting steady bouts of heavy rain are common. These can cause their own flooding problems, as seen early this year when heavy rain caused widespread devastation in the UK with thousands of people forced to flee their homes.



Climate models suggest heavier winter rainfall for the UK. Summer downpours, such as those seen in 2012 when heavy rainfall followed a long period of drought, with disastrous results, are harder to predict but can take a greater toll as they are more sudden, and crops are ruined and tourism disrupted.



Kendon said: "It's the hourly rainfall rates that you look at in summer." The rain tends to fall in shorter but more intense bursts, caused by convective storms, but this has been difficult for climate models to simulate, because they lack the ability to home in on such brief events. It took the Met Office supercomputer, one of the most powerful in the world, nine months to run the necessary simulations.



(courtesy of the Guardian)



If these events are on the increase in the summer months as their research concludes, isn't it a shame that the Met Office and Environment Agency don't release 'real time' hourly rainfall data from the hundreds of automatic gauges in their network for the rest of us to see and not just for some University research?



I'm sure it is not beyond the realms of science fiction that someone else could then use that information to create a mobile app that could alert the public about any flash flooding event that is occurring now?



http://www.theguardian.com/environme...e-change-study

Any mention of the fact that the NAO or rather the degree of intensity of the North Atlantic pressure systems controls where the rain falls without increasing or lessening the amount that falls?

On Tuesday, 3 June 2014 09:09:15 UTC+1, exmetman wrote:
You've all probably read about the research done between the UKMO and Newcastle University that points to an increase in flash flooding in the UK. This is a bit that I have clipped from the Guardian article:



Elizabeth Kendon of the Met Office, the lead author of the study, said that the

research was groundbreaking in using a high-resolution weather forecasting model to translate the likely effects of climate change into a detailed prediction of future UK summer weather.



"Until now, we haven't been able to do it in this way," she said. "This should help people to understand what is likely to happen in the summer in future. It's very important that we've detected this signal for heavier downpours in the UK. It's now for policymakers to decide what to do about it."



Some of the worst results could still be a few decades away, but the effects are already being felt and are likely to grow more severe, according to the models. But Kendon said more accurate predictions would depend on more scientific research being undertaken.



Summer rainfall is different to that typical of winter, when long-lasting steady bouts of heavy rain are common. These can cause their own flooding problems, as seen early this year when heavy rain caused widespread devastation in the UK with thousands of people forced to flee their homes.



Climate models suggest heavier winter rainfall for the UK. Summer downpours, such as those seen in 2012 when heavy rainfall followed a long period of drought, with disastrous results, are harder to predict but can take a greater toll as they are more sudden, and crops are ruined and tourism disrupted.



Kendon said: "It's the hourly rainfall rates that you look at in summer." The rain tends to fall in shorter but more intense bursts, caused by convective storms, but this has been difficult for climate models to simulate, because they lack the ability to home in on such brief events. It took the Met Office supercomputer, one of the most powerful in the world, nine months to run the necessary simulations.



(courtesy of the Guardian)



If these events are on the increase in the summer months as their research concludes, isn't it a shame that the Met Office and Environment Agency don't release 'real time' hourly rainfall data from the hundreds of automatic gauges in their network for the rest of us to see and not just for some University research?



I'm sure it is not beyond the realms of science fiction that someone else could then use that information to create a mobile app that could alert the public about any flash flooding event that is occurring now?



http://www.theguardian.com/environme...e-change-study




Well as there has been no observed incidence of 'Flash' flooding before AGW all I can say is its an unwanted artefact of human pollution. Who in their right mind wants Flash flooding except for the like of Puff Daddy or Snoop Dawg.

Me I like English reserved sedate flooding , much nicer .

On Tuesday, 3 June 2014 01:09:15 UTC-7, exmetman wrote:
If these events are on the increase in the summer months as their research concludes, isn't it a shame that the Met Office and Environment Agency don't release 'real time' hourly rainfall data from the hundreds of automatic gauges in their network for the rest of us to see and not just for some University research?


If they did release real data we would all realize they are lying.

ANyway, "The research, a result of a collaboration between the Met Office and Newcastle University, used climate change computer models ..."

Ah, the good old computer models. So they aren't using real data are they, they are using model data, because real data shows no increase in rainfall, heavy rainfall, unusual rainfall, or what ever beyond the normal likely hood of such events occurring. (Basically, in a stable system, there is always the chance for a record to be broken)

Lawrence Jenkins wrote:

Well as there has been no observed incidence of 'Flash' flooding
before AGW all I can say is its an unwanted artefact of human
pollution.

Oh really?
Try telling the inhabitants of Lynmouth that.....
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

On Tuesday, 3 June 2014 19:42:54 UTC+1, Col wrote:
Lawrence Jenkins wrote:



Well as there has been no observed incidence of 'Flash' flooding

before AGW all I can say is its an unwanted artefact of human

pollution.



Oh really?

Try telling the inhabitants of Lynmouth that.....

--

Col



Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg



Precisely Col, its nice to have someone agree with me for a change.

I know all about Lynmouth but do you know about Sir Athol Oakeley who lived in Lynton?

Lawrence Jenkins wrote:
On Tuesday, 3 June 2014 19:42:54 UTC+1, Col wrote:
Lawrence Jenkins wrote:



Well as there has been no observed incidence of 'Flash' flooding

before AGW all I can say is its an unwanted artefact of human

pollution.



Oh really?

Try telling the inhabitants of Lynmouth that.....

Precisely Col, its nice to have someone agree with me for a change.

I'm not agreeing with you.
You are trying to claim that flash flooding didn't ocurr before AGW.
I'm providing a very clear example of when it did.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

On 03/06/2014 21:26, Col wrote:
Lawrence Jenkins wrote:
On Tuesday, 3 June 2014 19:42:54 UTC+1, Col wrote:
Lawrence Jenkins wrote:



Well as there has been no observed incidence of 'Flash' flooding

before AGW all I can say is its an unwanted artefact of human

pollution.



Oh really?

Try telling the inhabitants of Lynmouth that.....

Precisely Col, its nice to have someone agree with me for a change.

I'm not agreeing with you.
You are trying to claim that flash flooding didn't ocurr before AGW.
I'm providing a very clear example of when it did.


He is being sarcastic.

He is implying that a statement like "flash flooding frequency will
increase with AGW" is logically equivalent to the statement "flash
flooding didn't happen before AGW". A more common term for this sort of
'logic' is "straw man argument".

On Tuesday, 3 June 2014 22:14:48 UTC+1, Adam Lea wrote:
On 03/06/2014 21:26, Col wrote:

Lawrence Jenkins wrote:

On Tuesday, 3 June 2014 19:42:54 UTC+1, Col wrote:

Lawrence Jenkins wrote:







Well as there has been no observed incidence of 'Flash' flooding



before AGW all I can say is its an unwanted artefact of human



pollution.







Oh really?



Try telling the inhabitants of Lynmouth that.....



Precisely Col, its nice to have someone agree with me for a change.



I'm not agreeing with you.

You are trying to claim that flash flooding didn't ocurr before AGW.

I'm providing a very clear example of when it did.





He is being sarcastic.



He is implying that a statement like "flash flooding frequency will

increase with AGW" is logically equivalent to the statement "flash

flooding didn't happen before AGW". A more common term for this sort of

'logic' is "straw man argument".

So Adam it did or it didn't make your mind up man. Oh no I get it. An organisation that can't even beat ITV in weather forecasting 10 hours before the event is warning us that it will be worse a hundred years from now .

Jesus do people buy this stuff as PT Barnum said the most common boys name in Spain is Juan and in Sweden its Bjorn and at the current birth rate between the pair of them there's Juan Bjorn every minute.

And Adam do you find it difficult to talk to me directly?

One last thing: why do AGW zealots always talk in clichés?