18 June 2014 the last full day for the present spell and if you are now mowing hay I wish you the best of British.

18:00 is a spell full of volcanic activity unless we get a lot of rain. The USA has suffered a lot of serious tornado activity and Brazil among a number of other countries has suffered with severe flooding. Both of which run close coincidentally with volcanic activity.

The Climategate Office has the North Atlantic chart showing the anticyclone over us will continue through to at least t+84. They are also showing it breaks up tomorrow but reforming and elongating slowly out to central Europe..

I won't pretend to understand what the Bureau of Meteorology is showing on their southern hemisphere runs. Some parallel stuff but it has a lot of large cyclonic systems entrained throwing the isobars together under the doldrums.

Such compaction tends to occur with earthquake activity -a lot of which will be geometrically related to the centres of compaction.

the spell is a doubly unstable one as was the spell for 28 May (new moon 18:40)
http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/phase/phases2001.html

The Anticyclone in that spell did not cover Britain nor block the Atlantic for long, whilst the BoM chart for the start of that spell is similar to today's, it showed signs of tropical storm formation (e.g. Amanda/Boris) but they were a system going into decline.

Presumably this spell will not even get that far. I do not know what the volcanic effects were on TS formation but the mirror image of Mount Sangeang etcetera can be found he
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/140528_rpts.html

Usually heightened volcanic activity goes along with one super-tropical storm and two also rans. Maybe the fact that it is a double unstable screwed that up.

Or maybe I don't know what I am talking about.

Looks like things are getting hot under the Great Lakes:
http://parsonsweather.com/wxtropical.php

That will resonate with the North Atlantic chart to a certain degree.

On Wednesday, 18 June 2014 10:41:43 UTC+1, Weatherlawyer wrote:
Looks like things are getting hot under the Great Lakes:

http://parsonsweather.com/wxtropical.php



That will resonate with the North Atlantic chart to a certain degree.

On Thursday, 19 June 2014 17:26:30 UTC+1, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On Thursday, 19 June 2014 16:34:05 UTC+1, Weatherlawyer wrote:

2014/06/19 @ 10:17



13.5 S. 166.83 E. 6.4 M. Vanuatu Islands



A spell changer if not a series breaker.



And a change of focii?

http://www.volcanodiscovery.com/suwa...-activity.html

That should curtail events he

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/140619_rpts.html

A large system developing at 60 E. expands on Saturday until it touches Antarctica and condenses into a tropical storm by Sunday night:
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/char...Refresh+ View

Two systems at 130 and 50 west, develop over more or less the same time -as is the custom with these things. By Monday a full blown set of tropical storms will be running but weaken rapidly.

They don't behave just like that though. I have the opinion they will come back again. Bigger, stronger, faster.
That's not on the charts yet but we'll see.

Been a busy night:
Environment Canada confirms second tornado touched down June 17
CTV News-3 hours ago
This second tornado touched down in Stroud at about 5:30 p.m., about 10 minutes after a separate tornado left more than 100 homes.


Second tornado touched down near Barrie: official 0
The Barrie Examiner-3 hours ago
Wynne tours tornado-damaged Ontario town
Brampton Guardian-4 hours ago
Ontario's fourth tornado of the season confirmed
The Weather Network-2 hours ago
2nd tornado occurred near Angus on Tuesday: Environment Canada
CityNews-2 hours ago
3 tornadoes spotted in western Minnesota
St. Cloud Times-5 hours ago
BENSON - Law enforcement officials have confirmed tornado touch downs Thursday evening in Swift, Pope and Chippewa Counties. The Swift*...

Tornado hits Istanbul
RT-11 hours ago
A rare tornado descended on eastern Istanbul Thursday as Turkish officials warned that up to 50 kilos of rain per square meter were expected*...
Turkey's Istanbul hit by rare tornado
www.worldbulletin.net-16 hours ago
Tornado touched down in Verona Tuesday night
The Rome Observer-4 hours ago
The damage in Verona was confirmed to have been a tornado by a ... indicate that and EF-1 tornado with winds reaching around 100 mph.

Tornado that struck near Turning Stone crossed Thruway along 11
The Post-Standard-19 Jun 2014
Just some of the search of Google News.

Obviously no volcanism going to happen with that little lot.

Looks like Amanda is back. And such vorticity:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_epac.shtml (21 June 2014.)

The first charts for the 27th have just come in from Australia. It would be just as well to advise of tornadoes now I suppose though of course they are not dramatically clear as yet.

That spell should be similar to 1 March and the spells for 7, 15 and 22nd April (more or less.) But we are hardly half way through this one yet.

t+24 on midnight's Climategate chart shows the board peppered with small systems. Actually meaning on overall col of 1016, the highest pressure being 1025 and the lowest 999 those two systems close together -in a not too close sort of way.

I won't be surprised to see the word "correction" on the next run.

I have only scratched the surface of what might be done with the NAEFS now. I don't suppose I will get to crack it all but a lot is coming through that I never even looked at until this spell.
Someone will see it though -and not too far off a that. Let's hope they are better organised than I.

On Wednesday, 18 June 2014 10:41:43 UTC+1, Weatherlawyer wrote:
Looks like things are getting hot under the Great Lakes:

http://parsonsweather.com/wxtropical.php

That will resonate with the North Atlantic chart to a certain degree.

I was hoping to see that an approaching High would slide into place on today's NAEFS but it looks like sliding towards Charleston instead. Eruptions in the Aleutian Kamchatka chain?
Or just earthquakes?

I think it will be volcanic but I'm no expert.

Looks like we will be getting our first Atlantic tropical; it's going to be a season to remember or I have got the wrong horseman....
Hmmmmm!
What happened in 2013?
Duff, wasn't it?

On Saturday, 21 June 2014 10:51:22 UTC+1, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On Wednesday, 18 June 2014 10:41:43 UTC+1, Weatherlawyer wrote:

Looks like things are getting hot under the Great Lakes:

http://parsonsweather.com/wxtropical.php

That will resonate with the North Atlantic chart to a certain degree.

I was hoping to see that an approaching High would slide into place on today's NAEFS but it looks like sliding towards Charleston instead. Eruptions in the Aleutian Kamchatka chain?

Or just earthquakes?

I think it will be volcanic but I'm no expert.

On Sunday, 22 June 2014 01:49:41 UTC+1, Weatherlawyer wrote:

t+24 on midnight's Climategate chart shows the board peppered with small systems. Actually meaning on overall col of 1016, the highest pressure being 1025 and the lowest 999 both systems close together -in a not too close sort of way.

Such a large "mediocre" system generally means very low magnitude earthquakes IIRC. It should be possible to go back to another spell and find a similar chart to compare dates with for other phenomena.

Maybe I should.

Wish I had!

2 tornadoes in Colorado. Looks like it is going to be going that way.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/140621_rpts.html

20:42 ADAMS county COlorado (wouldn't you think that in this day and age they could dispense with the shouting and the abbreviations?) 6 SE of DENVER INTernationaL AIRPORt. 39.8 North 104.6 West. PILOT OBSERVED TORNADO (BOUlder.)

2042 2miles South of HUDSON WELD COlorado. 40.0 North 104.6 West MINOR DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES AND ROOFS WITH LARGE DUST CLOUD (BOU)

2111 ADAMS county COlorado 3 miles North of BENNETT 39.8 N. 104.4 W. TORNADO KICKING UP LARGE DUST CLOUD (BOU)

OK that was the 60/70 E. The two cyclones on the other side of the Antarctica are about to land:

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/char...Refresh+ View

And this was the two cyclones or one of them and we are still waiting for news from the other:

By Nelson Alcantara, eTN editor-in-chief | Jun 21, 2014

This morning at 1:35 am tourists on the French Indian Ocean Islands La Reunion tourists witnessed a spectacular many had been waiting to see for some time. The Piton de la Fournaise volcano erupted.

"It made a few days that we were waiting for it, said Pascal Viroleau, CEO of Reunion Island Tourism, about the eruption of the volcano of Reunion Island, the Piton de la fournaise. According to Viroleau, "the volcano entered in activity this morning at 1:35 am."

Tornadic activity abruptly ceased at that time:
23:43 6 North of SYRACUSE, HAMILTONcounty Kansas

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/140621_rpts.html

I may not be an expert but at least I am not a scientist.
ESAD!

We still have nice weather despite the time of the phase and the volcanic eruption
Maybe there is another one in Kamchatka or Chile?

I have an aching shoulder so I think the change in the weather will come with an earthquake. Look out for a 5 or even a 6 near Oaxaca and maybe a 4.5 in Venezuela. And again Chile or wherever (the Aleutians or some such.)

Look for a High leaving North America at the Charleston/ Cape Hatteras region. It is quite a a large anticyclone so who knows...
I've lost track of things with the Fijian Triangle.
Looks like things may resume there.

On Sunday, 22 June 2014 23:29:41 UTC+1, Weatherlawyer wrote:
We still have nice weather despite the time of the phase and the volcanic eruption

Maybe there is another one in Kamchatka or Chile?



I have an aching shoulder so I think the change in the weather will come with an earthquake. Look out for a 5 or even a 6 near Oaxaca and maybe a 4.5 in Venezuela. And again Chile or wherever (the Aleutians or some such.)



Look for a High leaving North America at the Charleston/ Cape Hatteras region. It is quite a a large anticyclone so who knows...

I've lost track of things with the Fijian Triangle.

Looks like things may resume there.

Tornado Season

Gulf Coast
April

Southern Plains
May - early June

Northern Plains, Upper Midwest
June - July

Mid-Atlantic
July

There is a map from Harold Brooks who used to post on uk.sci.weather until I upset him. (sorry about that) on the same page:
http://modernsurvivalblog.com/weathe...ornado-season/

A similar patterns to yesterdays is seen on the NWS list but no further reports of volcanic activity (which doesn't mean much.)
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html

"At least 26 people died and around 337,000 people are missing after storms brought torrential rain and flash floods to much of southern China, Xinhua reported.

Eleven people died in Hunan, five in Jiangxi and four in Fujian. Guizhou, Guangxi and Chongqing each reported two deaths.

Flash floods and landslides have toppled more than 8,700 houses, damaged another 66,000 homes causing direct economic losses of 4.08 billion yuan (£383,180,000).

China's central meteorological authority has issued a blue alert in multiple areas and more heavy rain is expected in large areas of southern China today.

Emergency response teams and relief materials have been sent to the disaster-hit regions, Xinhua mentioned."
http://www.disaster-report.com/2014/...d-337000..html

So plenty of scope for volcanic stuff yet. Next spell should see striations dominating British skies so the tornadic stuff should continue, though not necessarily in the same vein. (27 June New Moon at 08:09 http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/phase/phases2001.html)

The North Atlantic charts for midnight just got posted by Climategate. They show the first forecast for the 27th. A Low replaces the ridged remnant we are at present enjoying. (If you can call 1018mb a low.)

It look like Amanda has stepped up again:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_epac.shtml
Only 30% but it went down to yellow yesterday (10%) which is why I was thinking Oaxaca would get some earthquake activity.

No reports of tropical storms so it looks like I was wrong about that. Give it until Wednesday but I think something is going to show up before today ends. JTWC says not though. Not even a glimmer.

I ought to bone up on the latest ideas about tornadoes but to be honest I just find myself scrolling down without taking much in from places like:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado
Someone meeker than I might find it interesting. Don't let me put you off.

The 25th 26th 27th and 28th June on the NAEFS gain definition (convergence?) and show a marked line of three Lows running across the Canadian-US border. This means that as this spell changes the volcnicity of the planet increases.
http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/cartes_e.html

No sign of any storms.
Ah well. Maybe there is a time lag?

W T F !

Date Time
(UTC) Lat Lon Mag
2014/06/23 22:03:28 52.03 5.1 Mb RAT ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISL
2014/06/23 21:31:07 52.53 5.8 M Rat Islands, Aleutian Isl
2014/06/23 21:30:47 52 5.9 Mb Rat Islands, Aleutian Isl
2014/06/23 21:11:41 51.97 6 Mb Rat Islands, Aleutian Isl
2014/06/23 21:08:53 -30.42 5.7 Mb KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
2014/06/23 20:59:08 -31.01 5.1 Mb KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
2014/06/23 20:53:10 51.8 8 M Rat Islands, Aleutian Isl
2014/06/23 20:35:40 37.5 5.4 M North Pacific Ocean
2014/06/23 20:06:19 -29.96 6.2 Mb Kermadec Islands, New Zea
2014/06/23 19:28:46 27.16 6.7 Mb North Pacific Ocean
2014/06/23 19:21:48 -30.03 6.3 Mb Kermadec Islands, New Zea
2014/06/23 19:19:16 -30.12 6.9 M Kermadec Islands, New Zea
2014/06/23 19:13:18 8.72 4.6 M Panama-Costa Rica Border
2014/06/23 16:25:22 -5.34 4.8 Mb NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G
2014/06/23 15:38:38 -5.32 5 Mb NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G
2014/06/23 15:30:04 40.9 4.3 Mb EASTERN UZBEKISTAN
2014/06/23 15:21:25 31.18 4.6 Mb NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RID
2014/06/23 15:13:06 -3.2 5.1 Mb PAPUA, INDONESIA
2014/06/23 14:30:41 31.17 4.5 Mb NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RID
2014/06/23 14:30:12 29.42 4.7 Mb NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RID

I will have to rethink all this stuff.
I had forgotten the same thing happens after the cells that cause tornadoes leave the North American continent.

Not it appears there is the obvious link with volcanics...
http://www.volcanodiscovery.com/volc...pi-Ubinas.html
Wow!
How could I have missed that?