The first N Atlantic hurricane of the season.

Next question. Will it affect our weather?

The track is into the Canadian Maritimes.

Might spice up the baroclinic zone but not sure if it will affect our weather.
Needs to come across mid Atlantic for that.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh...l/030859.shtml

Len
Wembury

On Thursday, 3 July 2014 11:15:29 UTC+1, Len Wood wrote:

The first N Atlantic hurricane of the season.
Next question. Will it affect our weather?

The track is into the Canadian Maritimes.
Might spice up the baroclinic zone but not sure if it will affect our weather.
Needs to come across mid Atlantic for that.

Not quite.
Ordinarily a blocking low in the North Atlantic takes place with all tropical storms. However since the giant cyclones grew in the Southern Ocean blocking nearly all anticyclonic activity in the southern hemisphere, the sympathetic block in the NA has been absent.

Not that Tropical Storms since early May have been anything more than desultory with the resulting positive NAO and NPO.

What is actually affecting our weather is the positive AAO. Apparently it sends colder waters north by the bucketful.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh...l/030859.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap....shtml?3-daynl

What could be interesting is what would happen if it decided to leave through the Davies Straight and what it would do in the Arctic.

On Thursday, July 3, 2014 4:15:58 PM UTC+1, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On Thursday, 3 July 2014 11:15:29 UTC+1, Len Wood wrote:



The first N Atlantic hurricane of the season.

Next question. Will it affect our weather?



The track is into the Canadian Maritimes.

Might spice up the baroclinic zone but not sure if it will affect our weather.

Needs to come across mid Atlantic for that.



Not quite.

Ordinarily a blocking low in the North Atlantic takes place with all tropical storms. However since the giant cyclones grew in the Southern Ocean blocking nearly all anticyclonic activity in the southern hemisphere, the sympathetic block in the NA has been absent.



Not that Tropical Storms since early May have been anything more than desultory with the resulting positive NAO and NPO.



What is actually affecting our weather is the positive AAO. Apparently it sends colder waters north by the bucketful.



http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh...l/030859.shtml

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap....shtml?3-daynl



What could be interesting is what would happen if it decided to leave through the Davies Straight and what it would do in the Arctic.

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It is only a cat 1 but it is more than a month ahead of the 1966-2009 average for the first hurricane of the N Atlantic season.

There was an early one in 2012, Hurricane Chris (18 June), and that year was an above average active season with 19 tropical storms, of which 10 became hurricanes.

Who remembers our summer 2012. Wet, wet, wet.

It is early doors of course. I am clutching at straws.
We will see.

Len
Wembury

On Thu, 3 Jul 2014 03:15:29 -0700 (PDT)
Len Wood wrote:

The first N Atlantic hurricane of the season.

This 3-day loop of precipitable water content shows it developing.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-tim...natl/main.html

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. Mail: 'newsman' not 'newsboy'.
"Minds are like parachutes. They only function when they're open". -
Lord Dewar (1864-1930)

On Thursday, 3 July 2014 17:29:21 UTC+1, Graham P Davis wrote:
On Thu, 3 Jul 2014 03:15:29 -0700 (PDT)
Len Wood wrote:

The first N Atlantic hurricane of the season.

This 3-day loop of precipitable water content shows it developing.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-tim...natl/main.html

The harmonic blocking Low in the North Atlantic is in the picture now. The AAO is an amazing scene at the moment but these oscillations are self destructive because of their impact on the global conveyor. By next Wednesday it is all over:

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/char...Refresh+ View