Still posting to a spell that ended two days ago despite the obvious change in the weather.

Ah well we all make mistakes.

I am pretty sure the tornadoes occurring or not occurring on the NWS page the last couple of days are there due to the wave normally generating them having been restored. Coupled with the IR images of cold air over the Great Lakes it is pretty obvious really.

Following on from that, the quadrant of Antarctica(160 East to 60 West) portioned out on the following run from 19 August 2014:
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/char...Refresh+ View
indicated a severe storm in high latitudes.

Whether that is a line storm or the regenerated Karina flowing home, I can't say.

The Hawaiian runs (all of them) show the behaviour of a blocking Low when a tropical storm amalgamates:
http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/models/mo...&imgsize=Large

17 to 25 August 2014, 12:26:
http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/phase/phases2001.html
I have no idea how interesting the following will be but I caught it just in time whatever:
http://www.moontracks.com/declinations.html

On Sunday, 17 August 2014 10:52:37 UTC+1, Weatherlawyer wrote:


18:00 22 August 2014 (t+150)

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/char...Refresh+ View

Three deep black Cs approaching Antarctica two of them ominous, a lot of tropical stuff in the mix up to then. I have no idea what happens next except to say that it will be interesting, whatever that means.

Butterfled by the look of it today.

The NAEFS (http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/cartes_e.html) begins a period where three Highs dominate. And of course with my head for weather charts I have completely forgotten the implications. Volcanism?

If black were the new red I'd say the BoM was livid with straight line storms so I am going for the safe one and say that it also shows an abundance of tropical storms precede whatever so maybe they are Atlantic signals that intend to make life miserable in the House.

No carbon dioxide was hurt in any of these graphics.

The decay of a tropical storm brings either a quake f such magnitude that all smaller quakes are blanked on every seismometer in the world or we get swarms.

http://weathercharts.wordpress.com/2...akes-from-sed/

The number of swarms is effaced by the magnitude of one of them in the recent case the only swarm to appear on the front page of SED was the Iranian set.

We can't tell for sure what other swarms were taking place but we can see that certain regions in the blind spot have had minor local stuff. Notably in this spell there was or is an ongoing swarm at a volcano in Iceland.

They are not on the front page of SED because they don't register quakes of less that 4 Mag. But the fingerprint on every register in the world will be slightly different because of these minor swarms. Who knows that larger quakes have not been missed in the process?

The Iranian earthquakes :

August 2014

Day Time Lat Long MagT Region

19 08:25:59 -5.62 150.59 4.9 Mb NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G
19 06:13:41 -55.37 -28.04 4.6 M South Sandwich Islands Re
19 06:10:50 -4.60 150.32 4.6 M New Britain Region, P.N.G
19 06:06:26 6.67 -73.00 4.6 Mb NORTHERN COLOMBIA
19 04:11:21 55.00 110.30 4.3 Mb Lake Baykal region, Rus
19 01:11:06 53.13 -169.47 4.7 M Fox Islands, Aleutian Isl
19 00:53:17 2.93 128.12 4.7 M Halmahera, Indonesia
19 00:28:54 32.79 47.44 4.1 ML IRAN-IRAQ BORDER REGION
18 22:24:02 32.39 47.74 4.1 ML IRAN-IRAQ BORDER REGION
18 21:44:32 32.58 47.60 4.8 ML IRAN-IRAQ BORDER REGION
18 21:07:03 51.80 178.40 4.5 Mb RAT ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISL
18 19:38:18 32.89 47.77 4.2 ML IRAN-IRAQ BORDER REGION
18 18:54:58 32.74 47.66 4.4 ML IRAN-IRAQ BORDER REGION
18 18:36:18 32.50 47.72 4.1 ML IRAN-IRAQ BORDER REGION
18 18:08:23 32.50 47.79 5.8 Mw IRAN-IRAQ BORDER REGION
18 17:40:29 32.64 47.68 4.5 ML IRAN-IRAQ BORDER REGION
18 15:53:20 5.71 123.99 4.6 Mb CELEBES SEA
18 15:40:43 -55.37 -27.96 5.1 Mb SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS RE
18 15:10:49 -32.06 -69.71 4.3 ML SAN JUAN, ARGENTINA
18 13:58:33 44.60 148.70 4.0 Mb Kuril Islands
18 11:51:34 32.62 47.54 5.7 Mb IRAN-IRAQ BORDER REGION
18 11:23:07 32.59 47.59 4.9 Mb IRAN-IRAQ BORDER REGION
18 11:06:53 32.62 47.56 4.5 ML IRAN-IRAQ BORDER REGION
18 08:05:30 32.95 47.56 4.9 ML IRAN-IRAQ BORDER REGION
18 06:59:00 32.70 47.79 4.3 ML IRAN-IRAQ BORDER REGION
18 06:49:22 -26.02 -71.82 4.2 ML OFF COAST OF ATACAMA, CHI
18 05:25:51 32.61 47.84 5.8 Mb IRAN-IRAQ BORDER REGION
18 05:25:48 31.90 47.50 6.1 Mb Iran-Iraq border region
18 04:39:40 32.87 47.67 4.6 Mb IRAN-IRAQ BORDER REGION
18 04:20:47 32.86 47.57 4.7 Mb IRAN-IRAQ BORDER REGION
18 03:11:31 32.70 47.55 4.2 ML IRAN-IRAQ BORDER REGION
18 02:59:24 32.06 47.55 4.7 Mb IRAN-IRAQ BORDER REGION
18 02:53:11 32.78 47.58 4.4 ML IRAN-IRAQ BORDER REGION
18 02:32:05 32.63 47.68 6.0 Mb IRAN-IRAQ BORDER REGION
18 00:56:52 0.31 100.01 4.6 Mb NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONES
17 20:36:05 -42.11 88.62 4.7 M Southeast Indian Ridge
17 20:15:16 -9.60 112.47 4.6 Mb SOUTH OF JAVA, INDONESIA
17 19:24:02 39.70 143.40 4.5 Mb Off east coast of Honsh
17 18:30:25 -20.22 -70.40 4.2 ML OFFSHORE TARAPACA, CHILE
17 18:15:54 36.93 142.38 4.9 Mb OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU,
17 16:04:54 -20.80 68.55 5.2 Mb MID-INDIAN RIDGE
17 14:47:25 32.75 47.71 4.9 ML IRAN-IRAQ BORDER REGION
17 11:24:16 32.73 47.63 4.7 Mb IRAN-IRAQ BORDER REGION

The duration was Just over 24 hours (11:24 on the 17th to 00:28 on the 19th August 2014.)

On Tuesday, 19 August 2014 14:57:02 UTC+1, Weatherlawyer wrote:

18:00 22 August 2014 (t+150)

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/char...Refresh+ View

Three deep black Cs approaching Antarctica two of them ominous, a lot of tropical stuff in the mix up to then. I have no idea what happens next except to say that it will be interesting, whatever that means.

Butterfled by the look of it today.

The NAEFS (http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/cartes_e.html) begins a period where three Highs dominate. And of course with my head for weather charts I have completely forgotten the implications. Volcanism?

If black were the new red I'd say the BoM was livid with straight line storms so I am going for the safe one and say that it also shows an abundance of tropical storms precede whatever so maybe they are Atlantic signals that intend to make life miserable in the House.

No carbon dioxide was hurt in any of these graphics.

The decay of a tropical storm brings either a quake f such magnitude that all smaller quakes are blanked on every seismometer in the world or we get swarms.

http://weathercharts.wordpress.com/2...akes-from-sed/

The number of swarms is effaced by the magnitude of one of them in the recent case the only swarm to appear on the front page of SED was the Iranian set.

We can't tell for sure what other swarms were taking place but we can see that certain regions in the blind spot have had minor local stuff. Notably in this spell there was or is an ongoing swarm at a volcano in Iceland.

They are not on the front page of SED because they don't register quakes of less that 4 Mag. But the fingerprint on every register in the world will be slightly different because of these minor swarms. Who knows that larger quakes have not been missed in the process?

The Iranian earthquakes :
August 2014

Day Time Lat Long MagT Region

19 08:25:59 -5.62 150.59 4.9 Mb NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G

19 06:13:41 -55.37 -28.04 4.6 M South Sandwich Islands Re

19 06:10:50 -4.60 150.32 4.6 M New Britain Region, P.N.G

19 06:06:26 6.67 -73.00 4.6 Mb NORTHERN COLOMBIA

19 04:11:21 55.00 110.30 4.3 Mb Lake Baykal region, Rus

19 01:11:06 53.13 -169.47 4.7 M Fox Islands, Aleutian Isl

19 00:53:17 2.93 128.12 4.7 M Halmahera, Indonesia

19 00:28:54 32.79 47.44 4.1 ML IRAN-IRAQ BORDER REGION

18 22:24:02 32.39 47.74 4.1 ML IRAN-IRAQ BORDER REGION

18 21:44:32 32.58 47.60 4.8 ML IRAN-IRAQ BORDER REGION

18 21:07:03 51.80 178.40 4.5 Mb RAT ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISL

18 19:38:18 32.89 47.77 4.2 ML IRAN-IRAQ BORDER REGION

18 18:54:58 32.74 47.66 4.4 ML IRAN-IRAQ BORDER REGION

18 18:36:18 32.50 47.72 4.1 ML IRAN-IRAQ BORDER REGION

18 18:08:23 32.50 47.79 5.8 Mw IRAN-IRAQ BORDER REGION

18 17:40:29 32.64 47.68 4.5 ML IRAN-IRAQ BORDER REGION

18 15:53:20 5.71 123.99 4.6 Mb CELEBES SEA

18 15:40:43 -55.37 -27.96 5.1 Mb SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS RE

18 15:10:49 -32.06 -69.71 4.3 ML SAN JUAN, ARGENTINA

18 13:58:33 44.60 148.70 4.0 Mb Kuril Islands

18 11:51:34 32.62 47.54 5.7 Mb IRAN-IRAQ BORDER REGION

18 11:23:07 32.59 47.59 4.9 Mb IRAN-IRAQ BORDER REGION

18 11:06:53 32.62 47.56 4.5 ML IRAN-IRAQ BORDER REGION

18 08:05:30 32.95 47.56 4.9 ML IRAN-IRAQ BORDER REGION

18 06:59:00 32.70 47.79 4.3 ML IRAN-IRAQ BORDER REGION

18 06:49:22 -26.02 -71.82 4.2 ML OFF COAST OF ATACAMA, CHI

18 05:25:51 32.61 47.84 5.8 Mb IRAN-IRAQ BORDER REGION

18 05:25:48 31.90 47.50 6.1 Mb Iran-Iraq border region

18 04:39:40 32.87 47.67 4.6 Mb IRAN-IRAQ BORDER REGION

18 04:20:47 32.86 47.57 4.7 Mb IRAN-IRAQ BORDER REGION

18 03:11:31 32.70 47.55 4.2 ML IRAN-IRAQ BORDER REGION

18 02:59:24 32.06 47.55 4.7 Mb IRAN-IRAQ BORDER REGION

18 02:53:11 32.78 47.58 4.4 ML IRAN-IRAQ BORDER REGION

18 02:32:05 32.63 47.68 6.0 Mb IRAN-IRAQ BORDER REGION

18 00:56:52 0.31 100.01 4.6 Mb NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONES

17 20:36:05 -42.11 88.62 4.7 M Southeast Indian Ridge

17 20:15:16 -9.60 112.47 4.6 Mb SOUTH OF JAVA, INDONESIA

17 19:24:02 39.70 143.40 4.5 Mb Off east coast of Honsh

17 18:30:25 -20.22 -70.40 4.2 ML OFFSHORE TARAPACA, CHILE

17 18:15:54 36.93 142.38 4.9 Mb OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU,

17 16:04:54 -20.80 68.55 5.2 Mb MID-INDIAN RIDGE

17 14:47:25 32.75 47.71 4.9 ML IRAN-IRAQ BORDER REGION

17 11:24:16 32.73 47.63 4.7 Mb IRAN-IRAQ BORDER REGION



The duration was Just over 24 hours (11:24 on the 17th to 00:28 on the 19th August 2014.)

I used to use this ephemeris a lot once upon a time. It's Fourmilabs "Solar System Live" Ephemeris:

Right Distance From 47°N 7°E:
Ascension Declination (AU) Altitude Azimuth

Sun 9h 59m 6s +12° 18.5' 1.012 16.649 90.318 Up

Mercury 10h 45m 25s +9° 18.5' 1.335 22.334 79.388 Up

Venus 8h 51m 42s +18° 21.7' 1.619 9.662 106.616 Up

Moon 6h 17m 6s +18° 29.4' 62.6 ER -12.648 135.825 Set

Mars 14h 46m 44s -17° 23.4' 1.309 25.320 7.169 Up

Jupiter 8h 41m 12s +18° 44.9' 6.217 8.237 108.720 Up

Saturn 15h 2m 16s -14° 58.3' 10.058 27.973 3.178 Up

Uranus 1h 0m 38s +5° 43.0' 19.333 -29.620 -141.051 Set

Neptune 22h 33m 51s -9° 50.9' 28.972 -20.782 -97.975 Set

Pluto 18h 47m 11s -20° 29.0' 32.007 7.220 -49.228 Up

Whilst the RA may be useful as an indicator of proximity to earth most interesting is the declination of the moon and the similar declinations of some to the other "planets".

Venus And Jupiter are in the same declination and Pluto is at maximum south (Not that I think Pluto is worth wondering about.) In a month the RA will be 12 in case you are wondering (6 months past zero hour.) Al the other stuff is measured from that to get an hour angle.Mercury and Venus are the closest.

Mars and Saturn are close together. I don't think anything else counts.

All we have to do now is work out what the astrological stuff means if anything.
Personally I think it is all rather cool but some like it hot.

On Wednesday, 20 August 2014 18:18:05 UTC+1, Weatherlawyer wrote:

Fourmilabs "Solar System Live" Ephemeris:

Solar System: Mon 2014 Feb 31 23:21

Works for September the 31st too.
Rolls back to base on the 32nd though.

I'd write and tell the author if I knew how to.

The row of anticyclones across N America on the NA EFS starts today and continues tomorrow. Too long to be an earthquake not long enough for an eruption of much note. It is still hanging in there on the 26th:
http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/cartes_e.html

The moon is now in the same declination of Uranus and it is still cold. Not VEI eruption cold though. We need snow for that:
http://www.fourmilab.ch/cgi-bin/Solar
It doesn't really break free until it is some 4 degrees south on the 25th

The High in the North Atlantic declines (with a different meaning to the astronomical one -but bear in mind the original meaning of the word meteorology) in accord with all the above.

Compare the version found on OPC:
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Loops/
to that found on MetO&Climategate:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/..._pressure.html

I can't help thinking that any volcanic stuff will have to wait until the next phase at 12 o'clockish but is in that phase right no:
Aug 17 12:26 12 o'clock till the 24th
Aug 25 14:13 But this one is closely related (tornadic)
Sep 2 11:11 Then we are back to anticyclonic

My reasoning is that the Anticyclone in the North Atlantic at present breaks towards Spain not up into the Arctic. Also there don't appear to be enough of those transverse thunder (black) fronts on the British charts.

BoM looks menacing today and tomorrow Friday noon (22 August 2014) particularly but it's been doing that a lot lately I think it breaks around Saturday but comes back doubled on Monday:
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/char...Refresh+ View

OK I will put the ephemeris up on my blog when I sort out the stupid mistake I made collecting them. You are as usual, on your own as ever.

On Friday, 22 August 2014 23:38:55 UTC+1, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On Friday, 22 August 2014 12:12:20 UTC+1, Weatherlawyer wrote:



Whatever, regardless of that odd fact, I had said that Karina would increase in amplitude around now~ish. What is happening is that in keeping with some unrecognisable law, a following storm sucks the life blood out of the first one and becomes a very powerful one in its place.



Actually I was looking at the Hawaiian site watching the forecast, not the analysis.

http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/models/mo...&imgsize=Large

So perhaps I was being a little previous with the above. Nice forecast though, Karina having rebuilt since I posted the above earlier today and Marie spinning up from a TS to Cat 2 in a day with a Cat 4 on the cards:

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/:



Meanwhile:

Landslides in Hiroshima, Japan have claimed lives of at least 39 people and left 51 others missing on Thursday, Japan Today reported quoting the disaster management office in Tokyo.



Heavy rainfall caused landslides in Hiroshima. Hiroshima was hit by torrential rain in the early hours of Wednesday with more than 100 mm of rain per hour recorded, Xinhua reported.

http://www.disaster-report.com/2014/...s-in.html#more

Always a sign of impending volcanics:



Ubinas (Peru): After a being relatively since the end of July, a powerful explosion occurred suddenly at the volcano on 22 August 2014, at 15:36 local time. Ejecta fell over 2 km with an approximately 7-8 km. ash plume.

Explaining the paucity of tornadoes on hehttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/140818_rpts.html



So here is the definitive signal for a VEI number eruption:

1. Three tropical storms

2. Floods and landslides

3. I am guessing this one: Three anticyclones at sea level crossing the same parallel over North America.

And finally the clincher:

4. http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/char...Refresh+ View



A pair of cyclones the complete opposite to the type of development for a large earthquake. In the above case it is a stream of precipitate falling in a line, tangential to the coast of Antarctica.



In this case it is taking water from the middle of the Indian Ocean to the middle of the Pacific. It never gets there of course touching Antarctica as it does at 180 degree (Ross Ice Shelf.) On a Mercator chart the other end of the straight edge gets to the top centre of the picture above. No idea what it looks like in the round.



I am sure the charts for the previous runs will have shown this was clearly the separation of several cyclones one of which taking off on the outside edge of the second of three. A small tertiary running along the coast. It seems to have been joined by a few friends to date.



It will be interesting to see if it bounces off. If it does so and keeps its distance from Antarctica until it reaches South America, the result is a severe tornado episode. Maybe even a line storm/ something as expressive in the same line of work as an extra tropical going ashore over Europe maybe. (Or I am going to pretend I never said that.)



What I should do now is post the same on my blog complete with pretty pictures.

https://weathercharts.wordpress.com/...05&action=edit

So now you know it was cold for a reason. (Someone tell me they saw mare's tails to make up for your lack of diligence.)

On Saturday, 23 August 2014 01:15:21 UTC+1, Weatherlawyer wrote:

https://weathercharts.wordpress.com/...05&action=edit

Updated.

I reconsidered all I had seen take place under the sun; that the swift do not have the race, nor the mighty ones the battle, nor do the wise also have the food, nor do the understanding ones also have the riches, nor do even those having knowledge have the favor; because **** happens.

Ecclesiastes 9:11

I never say what was under my nose before the eruptions took place at Urbinas and Fuego. Some on here have been posting about the chill locally and one or two about ice in our nether regions.

When the lunar nodes bring the extent of the declination of the moon to less than the solar tropic limits, then there is an up-tick in volcanism world wide. I am almost sure of it. Such behaviour is concomitant with generally cool weather because the sea ice in the southern hemisphere is part of that cycle.

Increasing sea ice means the ITCZ moves further north than usual and the resulting increase in tropical storms is a response to greater regional flooding.

Obviously if a lot more rain falls in the tropics, a lot more storms can form there as it tends to "pool" over denser brine and along with that phenomenon another one causes spectacular changes in heat absorption as the shape of the sea surface lens is affected.

When rainfalls increase in higher latitudes drained acquifers are refreshed and the topsoil is lubricated. Ordinarily things go unnoticed as is still the case in Cuba. But where the capitalist bean-counter holds all the aces in the games they play with farmers, then massive and pointless deforestation occurs and local economies are overburdened.

Floods and landslides occur and eventually when there is sufficient pressure in the deeps... **** happens, all the fountains of the great deep burst open, and the floodgates of the sky are opened. Until God sends wind to pass over the earth, and the water subsides and the fountains of the deep and the floodgates of the sky are closed again, until the next time.

And sure enough the sons of men have forgotten this creator and so continue murdering one another even those of us still in the womb unassuaged nevertheless it shall still occur when he brings a cloud over the earth, that the bow will be seen in the cloud, he keeps the contract between every living creature; and never shall the water become a flood to destroy all flesh.

We get a dose of Ebola or something else instead.
You have been warned. Never neglect to tell your loved ones tht you love them in case you don't get to see them again:
http://biblehub.com/matthew/24-39.htm

Have fun.

Nealy the end of the spell and Iran earthquakes dominate the board. A 5.3M. hit Iceland rather than an extreme eruptive event (so far.) Some not too devastating volcanoes did erupt in South America. And California residents got someting to do with the droughts:

2014/08/24 10:20:52 38.44 -124.69 5.2 mb Off Coast of N. Californi
2014/08/24 10:20:46 38.15 -122.33 5.8 M Northern California
2014/08/24 08:53:01 37.9 144.2 4.8 Mb Off east coast of Honsh
2014/08/24 07:14:36 46.76 14.88 4 mb NW Balkan Region
2014/08/24 07:12:50 45.62 26.31 4.1 M Romania
2014/08/24 05:35:19 59.3 -5.86 4.5 mb North Atlantic Ocean
2014/08/24 05:33:45 64.53 -17.56 4.9 M Iceland
2014/08/24 04:29:28 -7.04 129.69 4.5 Mb KEPULAUAN BABAR, INDONESI
2014/08/24 02:45:39 33.76 41.77 4.8 mb Iraq
2014/08/24 02:44:52 32.59 47.89 5.3 ML IRAN-IRAQ BORDER REGION
2014/08/24 00:09:54 64.68 -17.59 5.3 Mb ICELAND
2014/08/23 22:32:23 -32.7 -71.4 6.4 M Near coast of central Chi
2014/08/23 22:31:50 32.66 47.55 4.5 ML IRAN-IRAQ BORDER REGION
2014/08/23 20:50:32 43.5 146.7 4.1 Mb Kuril Islands
2014/08/23 20:05:18 32.65 47.78 5.4 Mb IRAN-IRAQ BORDER REGION


Tomorrow we have a tornado spell starting. Unfortunately it isn't tornado season (but it does rather look like volcano season.)

17 August 12:26 a volcano spell (Low cloud & cold in the UK (and the |US Mid-West?)
25 August 14:13 Tornadoes ahoy (or more volcanic ctuff?)
2 September 11:11 this one should be anticyclonic...

From https://www.metcheck.com/UK/ an old web page on "Singularities" now missing:

16 Aug to 30 Aug:
Summer starts to fade as the first of the Autumn storms arrives bringing cooler, unsettled weather to many areas, high pressure may hang on in the South for a while longer.

1 Sep to 17 Sept:
The 'Old Wives Summer' begins as high pressure crosses the UK en route to Siberia bringing a period of 3 or 4 fine days followed by showers.