Using analogue selection for 30-day periods and pattern
sequences for 5-day periods during Aug/Sept, then using
best-fit years, gives us the following for October 2003:

Mean sea-level pressure pattern over the British Isles:
south-westerly

Mean pressure anomaly pattern over the Br.Is:
near normal, perhaps a hint of NW-ly or N-ly

CET -0.3 degC
E&W RR 98%
E&W sss 103%

Verification for September's Not the Long Range Forecast:
Sea-level pressure pattern:
Actual: anticyclonic/southwesterly
Forecast: southwesterly

Anomaly pattern:
Actual: anticyclonic
Forecast: W to NW, anticyclonic in the south
CET:
Forecast +0.2 degC
Actual +0.8 degC

Rainfall:
Forecast 108%
Actual 47%

Sunshine
Forecast 106%
Actual 129%

Philip Eden

I thought with the new season we could expect some wet and windy
weather but your forecast seems to sugest a blocking high to the west
of the UK. Also instresting to see you expect an below average month
in terms of temperature. This will be a change from the last 9 months.


"Philip Eden" philipATweatherHYPHENukDOTcom wrote in message ...
Using analogue selection for 30-day periods and pattern
sequences for 5-day periods during Aug/Sept, then using
best-fit years, gives us the following for October 2003:

Mean sea-level pressure pattern over the British Isles:
south-westerly

Mean pressure anomaly pattern over the Br.Is:
near normal, perhaps a hint of NW-ly or N-ly

CET -0.3 degC
E&W RR 98%
E&W sss 103%

Verification for September's Not the Long Range Forecast:
Sea-level pressure pattern:
Actual: anticyclonic/southwesterly
Forecast: southwesterly

Anomaly pattern:
Actual: anticyclonic
Forecast: W to NW, anticyclonic in the south
CET:
Forecast +0.2 degC
Actual +0.8 degC

Rainfall:
Forecast 108%
Actual 47%

Sunshine
Forecast 106%
Actual 129%

Philip Eden

In uk.sci.weather on Thu, 2 Oct 2003 at 03:52:42, Simon S wrote :

I thought with the new season we could expect some wet and windy
weather but your forecast seems to sugest a blocking high to the west
of the UK.

It does seem to be inhibiting the progress of moisture-laden lows from
the SW.
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham, England

Your forecasts have been very good this year but this one seems
unlikely to be met in terms of rain. However temp should be spot on.


Snip

CET -0.3 degC
E&W RR 98%
E&W sss 103%
Snip

It would only take a disturbed and very wet last week to bring the rainfall
up to near normal.. and a lot could change 10 days from now..
Granted... every time the weather looks like breaking down into an Atlantic
type, it then doesnt turn out that way.. we will see.

Jim

"Simon S" wrote in message
m...
Your forecasts have been very good this year but this one seems
unlikely to be met in terms of rain. However temp should be spot on.


Snip

CET -0.3 degC
E&W RR 98%
E&W sss 103%
Snip

In uk.sci.weather on Mon, 13 Oct 2003 at 19:44:55, Jim Smith wrote :

It would only take a disturbed and very wet last week to bring the rainfall
up to near normal.. and a lot could change 10 days from now..

But that would count against the temperature dropping to the level
suggested.

Granted... every time the weather looks like breaking down into an Atlantic
type, it then doesnt turn out that way.. we will see.

The next possibility looks like at the end of the weekend.
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham

Email to pahyett[AT]activist[DOT]demon[DOT]co[DOT]uk