Updated 16 September 2014, 12:29pm.

Mount Mayon in Albay province was placed on alert level three by the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS.)

Increased volcanic activity including a growing lava dome, crater glow, rock fall events, volcanic earthquakes and gas emissions. More than 12,000 people were forcibly evacuated from the 6.8-kilometre danger zone, more villagers, facing the south-eastern crater rim, would be moved if Mayon erupts.

Mount Mayon, Stratovolcano in Albay, Luzon island
Elevation: 2,462 metres. Base Diameter: 20 kilometres. Number of historical eruptions: 48. In 1814, the largest of the Philippines' 22 active volcanoes buried the town of Cagsawamore, killing more than 1,200 in lava flows.

Tens of thousands of villagers were displaced when Mayon erupted in December 2009. Last year, the volcano spewed ash and rocks that reached 500 metres above the summit, killing four foreign tourists and their local guide.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-09-1...uption/5746534

Don't quote me but the attention being paid to badaboombardabangBardawahtsit in Iceland has been very annoying.

There is a very deep Low hitting the coast of Antarctica on the end of today's run. Just at the Ross Ice Shelf. (Centre 160 E on the 22 September (T+162.)) well on the other side of this new spell:
Sep 16 02:05. Sep 24 06:14 http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/phase/phases2001..html

The consensus for Britain is that it is warmer than it has been recently.
I think it has been a dry spell, not quite what the doctor ordered but then we had a fair spate of very powerful tropical storms and one of them at least defied explanation.

Unfortunately nobody sought to dive in with it.

Most news reports on the weather seem to be retweets. The shape of things to come no doubt as climatologists struggle to come back from ignominy?

Tropical storm power and energy seems to come at the pice of earthquake magnitude. That should be cause for gratitude though for small mercies some might think. If you live in western Mexico you might not have so much desire for tropical storms as someone living in western USA.

There is a discussion on the drought (ostensibly a discussion of Odile) he
http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/09
Not a fair comment really as I was following a NASA link:
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOT..._rainfall.html
to a blog written about July data posted in August including a graphic that I couldn't decipher.

I suppose I should go looking for the answer in a search engine rather than follow pointed links at random. How do I phrase a question likely to get an answer to why Odile was impaled on Baja most of its life?

My biggest question however is the hint given by the Hawaiian forecast:
http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/models/mo...&imgsize=Large

Admittedly, I only ever look at sea level stuff (mostly pressures) but as far as I am concerned that is the only place weather happens. Everything else is climate or a close relative. According to that winds run link for this run:
http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/models/mo...imtype=f lash
a Low climbs out into the North Pacific from Mexican waters.

What's the betting a few US politicians are hoping to see a lot of this Wetback?
Maybe god is sending them peaceful thoughts about frontiers and sharing. Maybe something useful to do with all those ex-military "school" vehicles they are acquiring along the southern Californian border. Hopefully not necessarily converting them to water canon.

One can but hope.

The forecast low is only a 1008 mb cyclone when it gets onto the charts on the 22nd. That it should be so far from shore by then is significant as it has to be a fairly powerful cyclone to be heading north west rather than north east. It is only a forecast but even if it fails to get so far north west, it must go north east eventually.

One thing:
According to best track suggestions at the moment, Polo is going to have to get a lot better organised to be the answer to Californian prayers.
http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/tra...c/201417E.html

Something interesting will crop up at the end of the spell though, according to BoM. I don't think it will be a storm per se. We have a week to get ready.
Or not, as the case may be:

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/char...Refresh+ View

Meanwhile yours truly will be spending some time looking at Unisys' track records for scintillating data.

On Thursday, 18 September 2014 01:43:47 UTC+1, Weatherlawyer wrote:

I just posted a blog about how to forecast the coming eruptions from the NAEFs charts:

I will post the rest of the 101 with the southern hemisphere runs from the Australian charts.

In the meantime things are picking up everywhere one looks:
Indonesia's Mount Slamet volcano erupted early Thursday morning in Central Java province. Ash has fallen on some villages and activity is banned within 4 kilometers of the peak. Authorities have made preparations to move nearly 24,000 residents from seven villages that are within 6 kilometers of the crater, if Slamet becomes more dangerous.

http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wir...lcano-25590068

I really should get around to posting those Australian charts. If anyone is still interested they are still showing what to me, is pretty obvious signals. Something big is going to kick off on Monday but I don't know what.

If the tropical storms cease look out for large magnitude earthquakes and maybe tidal waves. If I get that last, it will be a first.

On Friday, 19 September 2014 02:03:29 UTC+1, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On Thursday, 18 September 2014 01:43:47 UTC+1, Weatherlawyer wrote:



I just posted a blog about how to forecast the coming eruptions from the NAEFs charts:



I will post the rest of the 101 with the southern hemisphere runs from the Australian charts.



In the meantime things are picking up everywhere one looks:

Indonesia's Mount Slamet volcano erupted early Thursday morning in Central Java province. Ash has fallen on some villages and activity is banned within 4 kilometers of the peak. Authorities have made preparations to move nearly 24,000 residents from seven villages that are within 6 kilometers of the crater, if Slamet becomes more dangerous.



http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wir...lcano-25590068



I really should get around to posting those Australian charts. If anyone is still interested they are still showing what to me, is pretty obvious signals. Something big is going to kick off on Monday but I don't know what.



If the tropical storms cease look out for large magnitude earthquakes and maybe tidal waves. If I get that last, it will be a first.

I'd like to know how the website called Reddit works. I posted on the
http://www.reddit.com/r/Volcanoes/co...ther_forecast/ and without getting 1 comment, the post made the front page.

Since the eruptions I was expecting are now occurring, I was somewhat unsurprised to find that the post is no longer on the front page. Selective dementia?

Ah well it is more interesting than listening to the news about Scotland. No reason to stay up until stupid o'clock though.

On Friday, 19 September 2014 03:26:10 UTC+1, Weatherlawyer wrote:

I just posted a blog about how to forecast the coming eruptions from the NAEFs charts:

I will post the rest of the 101 with the southern hemisphere runs from the Australian charts.

In the meantime things are picking up everywhere one looks:

Indonesia's Mount Slamet volcano erupted early Thursday morning in Central Java province. Ash has fallen on some villages and activity is banned within 4 kilometers of the peak. Authorities have made preparations to move nearly 24,000 residents from seven villages that are within 6 kilometers of the crater, if Slamet becomes more dangerous.

http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wir...lcano-25590068

I really should get around to posting those Australian charts. If anyone is still interested they are still showing what to me, is pretty obvious signals. Something big is going to kick off on Monday but I don't know what..

If the tropical storms cease look out for large magnitude earthquakes and maybe tidal waves. If I get that last, it will be a first.

I'd like to know how the website called Reddit works. I posted on the

http://www.reddit.com/r/Volcanoes/co...ther_forecast/ and without getting 1 comment, the post made the front page.

Since the eruptions I was expecting are now occurring, I was somewhat unsurprised to find that the post is no longer on the front page. Selective dementia?

Ah well it is more interesting than listening to the news about Scotland. No reason to stay up until stupid o'clock though.

From the BoM run:
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/char...Refresh+ View
I'd say there are nothing but remnants and extratropical storms this weekend until late Sunday which makes the dark masses developing to then very ominous.

Late Sunday onwards is the biggest chance for a superquake. I know that the Antarctic is only just peaking but that also means the end of sea-ice-ogenesis. A neutral or instability Lagrangian point in geo-physics. The kind of occasion the gyral nutants can come out of the ground and attack us.

There is a furling of the sheets on the NA EFS at the same time:
http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/cartes_e.html
4 Lows in a row showing at present for the 20th and a ragged line of Lows thereafter until the 23 quite a dramatic resurgence with more of the same on the 24th but then a move to large medium sized earthquakes on the 25th.

Then a subterranean cyclogenesis for the 26th or 27?

Low key tropical storms are back after Mondsya with some volcanic or tornadic activity this continues until the end of the model run but looks like the tropical storms fall over after Thursday. This usually occurs before the next set up brings larger tropical storms.

Remember children:
No serious earthquakes with tropical storms -especially during violent hurricane force winds.

On Friday, 19 September 2014 23:12:50 UTC+1, Weatherlawyer wrote:

I have just posted something on the southern hemisphere at my blog:

http://weathercharts.wordpress.com/2...nd-tidalwaves/

Something I could have known about last April but I was too concerned with tornadoes and the onset of the hurricane season.

I have learned a lot since then, not least of which is that cod liver oil can assuage the symptoms of gout in a few hours, less if you are lucky. For this I thank a lad from Leeds and I apologise to you now for forgetting your name (Rob?). We only met for a few hours and were both busy at the time.. Many, many thanks and I hope you read this one day.

Point out to your children that you were a great help to one of the world's foremost thaumaturges in an hour of need. If there is anything I can ever do for you...





Forget it.

Anyone know if the climategate people have a weather library at Leeds, still?
There used to be an axillary there when we had a Met Office at Reading. It has all gone to **** since Thatcher the Snatcher, so I wouldn't be surprised if things have been got at wherever that place was.

(Not much chance of getting a decent alternative north of t' border now is there!)