Good morning friends. Take a look at Kasim Awan's thoughts on this winter. It holds a lot of promise for snowfall I am sure you will agree.

http://kasimsweatherwatcher.com/uk-winter-2014-15/

In message ,
Bogdan Iqbal writes
Good morning friends. Take a look at Kasim Awan's thoughts on this
winter. It holds a lot of promise for snowfall I am sure you will agree.

http://kasimsweatherwatcher.com/uk-winter-2014-15/

The writer very sensibly says 'Winter forecasting is very difficult, and
is more for fun than anything else' and later on: 'This is Not a
Forecast however, it’s merely Speculation and is “Just For Fun”.
It’s Too far off. It’s simply too far out to be “Realistic” When
it comes to UKWeather.'

A lot of factors that could influence what our winter will be like are
covered, but the layout is so jumbled that I couldn't find out what his
own final forecast/nonforecast actually was!
--
John Hall

"I am not young enough to know everything."
Oscar Wilde (1854-1900)

Bogdan Iqbal wrote:
Good morning friends. Take a look at Kasim Awan's thoughts on this winter. It holds a lot of promise for snowfall I am sure you will agree.

http://kasimsweatherwatcher.com/uk-winter-2014-15/
---------------------------------------------------
Good morning. I found this a most interesting read. I have no confidence
in anybody's long term winter forecast at this stage, be they amateur or
professional but this one has at least a well detailed and thoughtful
approach making it interesting to read and does not suffer from the
outlandish predictions of pseudo professional forecasts like those of
Exacta Weather. In fact it has a very sensible qualifier:-

"It’s Too far off. It’s simply too far out to be “Realistic” When it
comes to UKWeather. The atmosphere here is Extremely Dynamic. We can Try
and Use Analogue Year’s, Sea Surface Temperatures, Solar Activity, QBO,
and the Seasonal Models to Try and conduct a Forecast. But Ultimately
the Unpredictability of the Physics Surrounding our Atmosphere which
Drvie the Weather is at an Early Stage, this Comes to Play more in Short
Term Weather Forecasting, although does Apply Considerably for Long
Range Forecasting"
Dave

P.S Is CFS the same as GFS or a typo?

Dave Cornwell wrote:

Bogdan Iqbal wrote:
Good morning friends. Take a look at Kasim Awan's thoughts on this winter.
It holds a lot of promise for snowfall I am sure you will agree.

http://kasimsweatherwatcher.com/uk-winter-2014-15/
---------------------------------------------------
Good morning. I found this a most interesting read. I have no confidence in
anybody's long term winter forecast at this stage, be they amateur or
professional but this one has at least a well detailed and thoughtful
approach making it interesting to read and does not suffer from the
outlandish predictions of pseudo professional forecasts like those of Exacta
Weather. In fact it has a very sensible qualifier:-

"It’s Too far off. It’s simply too far out to be “Realistic” When it comes to
UKWeather. The atmosphere here is Extremely Dynamic. We can Try and Use
Analogue Year’s, Sea Surface Temperatures, Solar Activity, QBO, and the
Seasonal Models to Try and conduct a Forecast. But Ultimately the
Unpredictability of the Physics Surrounding our Atmosphere which Drvie the
Weather is at an Early Stage, this Comes to Play more in Short Term Weather
Forecasting, although does Apply Considerably for Long Range Forecasting" Dave

P.S Is CFS the same as GFS or a typo?


It's the Climate Forecast System operated by NCEP in the USA which, amongst
other things, produces 12-hourly forecast charts out to 9 months ahead (I kid
you not!) updated daily. Their current offering for midday on Christmas Day is
a 960mb low centred NW of Scotland with strong SW'lies (probably Returning
Polar Maritime air) over the whole of the British Isles - to be treated with
the utmost caution and cynicism :-)

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
http://peakdistrictweather.org

Norman wrote:


It's the Climate Forecast System operated by NCEP in the USA which, amongst
other things, produces 12-hourly forecast charts out to 9 months ahead (I kid
you not!) updated daily. Their current offering for midday on Christmas Day is
a 960mb low centred NW of Scotland with strong SW'lies (probably Returning
Polar Maritime air) over the whole of the British Isles - to be treated with
the utmost caution and cynicism :-)
-----------------------------------------------
Don't worry - I treat anything over 7 days that way :-)

In message , Malcolm
writes

In article , John Hall
writes
In message ,
Bogdan Iqbal writes
Good morning friends. Take a look at Kasim Awan's thoughts on this
winter. It holds a lot of promise for snowfall I am sure you will agree.

http://kasimsweatherwatcher.com/uk-winter-2014-15/

The writer very sensibly says 'Winter forecasting is very difficult,
and is more for fun than anything else' and later on: 'This is Not a
Forecast however, it’s merely Speculation and is “Just For
Fun”. It’s Too far off. It’s simply too far out to be
“Realistic” When it comes to UKWeather.'

A lot of factors that could influence what our winter will be like are
covered, but the layout is so jumbled that I couldn't find out what
his own final forecast/nonforecast actually was!

Sounds like another amateur forecaster's website whose "skills" are
often promoted on this ng.


To be fair, it's a lot better than most.
--
John Hall

"I am not young enough to know everything."
Oscar Wilde (1854-1900)

On Monday, October 6, 2014 9:33:49 AM UTC+1, Bogdan Iqbal wrote:
Good morning friends. Take a look at Kasim Awan's thoughts on this winter. It holds a lot of promise for snowfall I am sure you will agree.



http://kasimsweatherwatcher.com/uk-winter-2014-15/

Why? No-one can predict the coming UK winter with any track record of accuracy and your friend is, effectively - and he does, in essence admit this - guessing.

On Monday, October 6, 2014 8:53:57 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
On Monday, October 6, 2014 9:33:49 AM UTC+1, Bogdan Iqbal wrote: Good morning friends. Take a look at Kasim Awan's thoughts on this winter. It holds a lot of promise for snowfall I am sure you will agree. http://kasimsweatherwatcher.com/uk-winter-2014-15/ Why? No-one can predict the coming UK winter with any track record of accuracy and your friend is, effectively - and he does, in essence admit this - guessing.

Many, many thank yous for your sincere replies though I detect a slight cynicism in Mr Malcolm and Mr Dawlish's reaction. May I reassure you that Mr Kasim puts many hours into his work.

"Bogdan Iqbal" wrote in message
...

On Monday, October 6, 2014 8:53:57 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
No-one can predict the coming UK winter with any track record of accuracy
and your friend is, effectively - and he does, in essence admit this -
guessing.

....though I detect a slight cynicism in Mr Malcolm and Mr Dawlish's
reaction.
=======================================

It's not cynicism, more a statement of fact.

======================================
May I reassure you that Mr Kasim puts many hours into his work.
======================================

Well, let's hope he enjoys it. But let's not pretend that it makes any
difference to the accuracy of the result.

General wrote:
"Bogdan Iqbal" wrote in message
...

On Monday, October 6, 2014 8:53:57 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
No-one can predict the coming UK winter with any track record of
accuracy and your friend is, effectively - and he does, in essence
admit this - guessing.

...though I detect a slight cynicism in Mr Malcolm and Mr Dawlish's
reaction.
=======================================

It's not cynicism, more a statement of fact.

======================================
May I reassure you that Mr Kasim puts many hours into his work.
======================================

Well, let's hope he enjoys it. But let's not pretend that it makes any
difference to the accuracy of the result.
-------------------------------------------------
......... and let's not discourage someone from making a thoughtful
weather based contribution to this Group. Especially as he himself says
it's not likely to be particularly accurate and is only for fun. The Met
Office don't add that rider to theirs and I doubt they are likely to be
any more accurate!