On Wednesday, January 21, 2015 at 12:00:41 AM UTC, Dave Cornwell wrote:
Dawlish wrote:
Yes, as I said, I get it wrong 20% of the time I forecast - which I readily admit to and (almost) everyone on here knows except your good self. *)) I've got it right 80% of the time. I look forward to your praise when I get it right. I seem to have missed your posts on those threads since you began posting!

I always re-examine my forecasts on outcome.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Not quite there but I trust GFS T+6 ;-)

Well I guess in the end it was wrong, but they didn't get it as wrong as
it appeared a few days ago. I suppose tomorrow would be summarised as
the end of a partial Atlantic block with slack areas of LP in a
Northerly drift.
What has to be said is the models didn't perform that well in the
intervening period, chopping and changing with regard to the length and
severity of the "cold spell".
Dave

True Dave. One for the 20% bin. It wasn't a great period for model accuracy, around the 7-day period 5-12 Jan. However, I'm confident I've (and therefore the models, were much more believable a few days later and I'm confident they've got the change back to Atlantic weather (by the 27th on my forecast, but it will most likely happen this weekend) right.

On Sunday, January 11, 2015 at 8:08:12 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
Agreement and consistency in spades.

**On 21st January, at T+240. the UK will continue to be experiencing an Atlantic run of weather. Although it is not possible to predict which one, at this distance, we will be experiencing either polar, or tropical, maritime air and its source will be the Atlantic.**

No blocking; no Arctic air; no continental air. No evidence of any surface impact, in our part of the world, from the current, minor, SSW event. I'm looking forward to the pages in-between (J. Geils Band and Counting Crows), rather than the fronts and depressions, but there should be something to keep many interested, over the next 10 days.

confirmed turd of a forecast.

Well done Will again. Spot on.
Science and qualifications win again.

Nymshifter reads my posts, copies the language within and weeps. laughing

On Sunday, January 11, 2015 at 8:08:12 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
Agreement and consistency in spades.

**On 21st January, at T+240. the UK will continue to be experiencing an Atlantic run of weather. Although it is not possible to predict which one, at this distance, we will be experiencing either polar, or tropical, maritime air and its source will be the Atlantic.**

No blocking; no Arctic air; no continental air. No evidence of any surface impact, in our part of the world, from the current, minor, SSW event.

Well done Will again , after just a few mildish days, a suckers gap, week 2 of the cold is starting.
Pathetic, no Arctic air he says. Imbecile.

Again, science prevails, not ladbrodkes.