Agreement and consistency in spades.

**On 21st January, at T+240. the UK will continue to be experiencing an Atlantic run of weather. Although it is not possible to predict which one, at this distance, we will be experiencing either polar, or tropical, maritime air and its source will be the Atlantic.**

No blocking; no Arctic air; no continental air. No evidence of any surface impact, in our part of the world, from the current, minor, SSW event. I'm looking forward to the pages in-between (J. Geils Band and Counting Crows), rather than the fronts and depressions, but there should be something to keep many interested, over the next 10 days.

Dawlish wrote:
Agreement and consistency in spades.

**On 21st January, at T+240. the UK will continue to be experiencing an Atlantic run of weather. Although it is not possible to predict which one, at this distance, we will be experiencing either polar, or tropical, maritime air and its source will be the Atlantic.**

No blocking; no Arctic air; no continental air. No evidence of any surface impact, in our part of the world, from the current, minor, SSW event. I'm looking forward to the pages in-between (J. Geils Band and Counting Crows), rather than the fronts and depressions, but there should be something to keep many interested, over the next 10 days.
--------------------------------------------------------
Probably should have played hearts not spades on this one! May end up
assigned to the 20% that won't achieve outcome ;-)
Dave

On Thursday, January 15, 2015 at 5:27:07 PM UTC, Dave Cornwell wrote:
Dawlish wrote:
Agreement and consistency in spades.

**On 21st January, at T+240. the UK will continue to be experiencing an Atlantic run of weather. Although it is not possible to predict which one, at this distance, we will be experiencing either polar, or tropical, maritime air and its source will be the Atlantic.**

No blocking; no Arctic air; no continental air. No evidence of any surface impact, in our part of the world, from the current, minor, SSW event. I'm looking forward to the pages in-between (J. Geils Band and Counting Crows), rather than the fronts and depressions, but there should be something to keep many interested, over the next 10 days.
--------------------------------------------------------
Probably should have played hearts not spades on this one! May end up
assigned to the 20% that won't achieve outcome ;-)
Dave

Ah! Yes! Nearly forgot this one as well! Very true. The algorithm I use will not produce accuracy every time!

On Sunday, January 11, 2015 at 8:08:12 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
Agreement and consistency in spades.

**On 21st January, at T+240. the UK will continue to be experiencing an Atlantic run of weather. Although it is not possible to predict which one, at this distance, we will be experiencing either polar, or tropical, maritime air and its source will be the Atlantic.**

No blocking; no Arctic air; no continental air. No evidence of any surface impact, in our part of the world, from the current, minor, SSW event. I'm looking forward to the pages in-between (J. Geils Band and Counting Crows), rather than the fronts and depressions, but there should be something to keep many interested, over the next 10 days.

What a total pile of crap.
Strongly zonal atlantic, no arctic air?

Well done to Will for spotting the pattern change to cold over a week ago.
Superb stuff as usual Will.

Science and professional skill always prevail.

On Saturday, January 17, 2015 at 11:30:44 AM UTC, wrote:
On Sunday, January 11, 2015 at 8:08:12 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:

No blocking; no Arctic air; no continental air. No evidence of any surface impact, in our part of the world, from the current, minor, SSW event. I'm looking forward to the pages in-between (J. Geils Band and Counting Crows), rather than the fronts and depressions, but there should be something to keep many interested, over the next 10 days.

What a total pile of crap.
Strongly zonal atlantic, no arctic air?


You idiot.
Try waiting until outcome before dissing somebody's forecast.

Col

Yes, as I said, I get it wrong 20% of the time I forecast - which I readily admit to and (almost) everyone on here knows except your good self. *)) I've got it right 80% of the time. I look forward to your praise when I get it right. I seem to have missed your posts on those threads since you began posting!

I always re-examine my forecasts on outcome. Pray tell me how you can be certain this forecast wii be wrong? It is not the 21st., by my calendar. It appears to be by yours.

Do evaluate Will Hand's forecast for 2 weeks of certain cold, in the same way, won't you? 👋👋

I've been very kind to the poster, Col. Maybe she'll show better judgement, of all forecasts, I'm the future! *))

On Saturday, January 17, 2015 at 12:56:33 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
I've been very kind to the poster, Col. Maybe she'll show better judgement, of all forecasts, I'm the future! *))

She?
I thought it was Joe Egginton, going by the Gmail address.
Then again it was actually on-topic, so perhaps not

The point about Will's forecast occurred to me too, On Jan 15th he said the cold would last for two weeks, well currently that looks highly unlikely but I would never dream of criticising it until that time period was up. The models are chopping and changing like mad at the moment, he might still end up being broadly correct, then again, so could you

Col

On Saturday, January 17, 2015 at 1:11:05 PM UTC, wrote:
On Saturday, January 17, 2015 at 12:56:33 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
I've been very kind to the poster, Col. Maybe she'll show better judgement, of all forecasts, I'm the future! *))

She?
I thought it was Joe Egginton, going by the Gmail address.
Then again it was actually on-topic, so perhaps not

The point about Will's forecast occurred to me too, On Jan 15th he said the cold would last for two weeks, well currently that looks highly unlikely but I would never dream of criticising it until that time period was up. The models are chopping and changing like mad at the moment, he might still end up being broadly correct, then again, so could you

Col

I wasn't aware, Col and I can't be arsed to keep up with egg's changes. I don't think this is another nymshift, but I may well be wrong. Why someone would change their name every time they post is completely beyond me. They know they'll be recognised and killfiled by those who do, but I'm really not interested in the 3 wise monkeys approach of some on here. I'd rather laugh at idiots than try to censor them.

Dawlish wrote:
Yes, as I said, I get it wrong 20% of the time I forecast - which I readily admit to and (almost) everyone on here knows except your good self. *)) I've got it right 80% of the time. I look forward to your praise when I get it right. I seem to have missed your posts on those threads since you began posting!

I always re-examine my forecasts on outcome.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Not quite there but I trust GFS T+6 ;-)

Well I guess in the end it was wrong, but they didn't get it as wrong as
it appeared a few days ago. I suppose tomorrow would be summarised as
the end of a partial Atlantic block with slack areas of LP in a
Northerly drift.
What has to be said is the models didn't perform that well in the
intervening period, chopping and changing with regard to the length and
severity of the "cold spell".
Dave