On Thursday, February 5, 2015 at 5:17:11 PM UTC, John Hall wrote:
In message ,
Scott W writes
On Thursday, 5 February 2015 13:13:18 UTC, wrote:
wrote in message
...
Having had a week of not so bitter weather with temps around 5C I was
expecting it to be colder today. So why, with 850 hPa indicating -8C here,
sub 528 dam, is it 6C and raining in the showers?


Long fetch off a super warm North Sea below 850 hPa melting the snowflakes
aloft. Sadly for you SE folk the days of sig. snow at low level are getting
rarer, unless the North Sea cools down more again in winters, it will remain
thus. At altitude, in places like Luton, snow will continue to occur
regularly but it will not be bitter. You are quickly becoming like the south
coast whereby the only time you will get sig. snow is if the 1000-500 hPa
thickness falls below 516 DAM, or you get a more continental air fetch or a
"special" synoptic setup like a slow moving front with a fetch off colder
land. Snow lovers need to gain latitude or altitude, preferably both.

Any idea on frequency, Will? I think December 2010 was considered a
once in 100 year event, whereas perhaps in the 1960s, it could be
considered a once in 15 year event.

I'm not Will, but since it was the coldest December since 1890 it could
hardly have been a once in 15 year event at any time during the 20th
century. Otherwise months that cold would have been more frequent. There
have only been eight sub-zero Decembers in the 350-odd years of the CET:
1676, 1788, 1796, 1874, 1878, 1890, 2010. So sub-zero Decembers might
have been a once in 15 year event in the late 1800s. Even before that,
though, there were a couple of very long gaps without any.


Have you seen the snowfall in Villablino, Spain. Well over a metre. The
location is at over 1,000m

https://twitter.com/JaimeDobleVFM/st...299072/photo/1


Impressive. There was a brief item on the BBC 1pm news about the snow in
northern Spain, but the footage they showed was of snow not nearly as
deep as that.

It looks as though Greece could have some exceptionally cold weather
next week.
--
I'm not paid to implement the recognition of irony.
(Taken, with the author's permission, from a LiveJournal post)

Perhaps the colder air hadn't quite got here as well. By late afternoon showers turned from hail to snow and temperature dropped sharply, not just in the showers. The latest one around 6pm was dry snow and wet bulb DP -1 and temp +1 and snow shower settled.
Thanks for all the possible explanations as well.
Dave

I think Keith's 'European update' may give the real clue as to why this airflow is not terribly cold.

On Thursday, February 5, 2015 at 8:20:54 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
I think Keith's 'European update' may give the real clue as to why this airflow is not terribly cold.

-------------------------------------------------------
Yes I think that's the main factor. Sea temperatures are higher these days and the Baltic freezes less. But we don't seem to see the Continent in the freezer too often these days and that must affect the temperature of the air reaching the East coast on a North Easterly surely. I'm confident if Europe gets another cold winter Essex will! Unless you are in the minority at altitude I doubt anywhere has had a truly cold spell yet this winter.

I have been wondering about this as well. My mobile stuck rigidly to forecasts of 6 deg C, despite the doom and gloom warnings all around. And the mobile was right - it's rarely been colder than that, only a couple of frosts and less than 1 cm-day of snow.

I fear there is a lot of truth in what Will is saying, but several related factors seem to be at play.

a) the North Sea has warmed more than the western approaches.

b) we do not get many easterlies, and they don't last as long.

c) Western Europe as a whole is often crazily mild - it has been the last 2 years anyway. The Russian "winters" of the last 2 years would not have stopped Napoleon or Hitler.

My location (NE Suffolk) has historically had similar winter temperatures to my parents at 600 feet in the Midlands or Dartmoor at 1400 feet, but not any more. It seems similar to say Weymouth now. 2012-13 was good here for snow, but 3 of the last 4 winters have produced 1 cm-day of lying snow between them, and I understand that even in December 2010, a thaw set in early whilst the south coast and Devon were enjoying ice days.


Brac

"Scott W" wrote in message
...
On Thursday, 5 February 2015 13:13:18 UTC,
wrote:
wrote in message
...
Having had a week of not so bitter weather with temps around 5C I was
expecting it to be colder today. So why, with 850 hPa indicating -8C
here,
sub 528 dam, is it 6C and raining in the showers?


Long fetch off a super warm North Sea below 850 hPa melting the
snowflakes
aloft. Sadly for you SE folk the days of sig. snow at low level are
getting
rarer, unless the North Sea cools down more again in winters, it will
remain
thus. At altitude, in places like Luton, snow will continue to occur
regularly but it will not be bitter. You are quickly becoming like the
south
coast whereby the only time you will get sig. snow is if the 1000-500 hPa
thickness falls below 516 DAM, or you get a more continental air fetch or
a
"special" synoptic setup like a slow moving front with a fetch off colder
land. Snow lovers need to gain latitude or altitude, preferably both.

Sorry :-(

Will
--
Any idea on frequency, Will? I think December 2010 was considered a once
in 100 year event, whereas perhaps in the 1960s, it could be considered a
once in 15 year event.


No sorry, but Dec 2010 was very severe in the CET record.

Have you seen the snowfall in Villablino, Spain. Well over a metre. The
location is at over 1,000m

https://twitter.com/JaimeDobleVFM/st...299072/photo/1


Wow that is some snow. Thanks.

Will
--
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

wrote in message
...
On Thursday, February 5, 2015 at 8:20:54 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
I think Keith's 'European update' may give the real clue as to why this
airflow is not terribly cold.

-------------------------------------------------------
Yes I think that's the main factor. Sea temperatures are higher these days
and the Baltic freezes less. But we don't seem to see the Continent in the
freezer too often these days and that must affect the temperature of the air
reaching the East coast on a North Easterly surely. I'm confident if Europe
gets another cold winter Essex will! Unless you are in the minority at
altitude I doubt anywhere has had a truly cold spell yet this winter.
=====================

It's not been that cold on Dartmoor, just normal cold. Yes there has been a
deep snow cover on the high moor for about 9 days now, but that is not
unusual for mid-winter. The MetO forecast for Cut Hill (603m asl) is for
temperatures in the range -3C to +1C for at least the next 5 days with
occasional snow grains. That is not especially cold for that location but of
course when you compare that to the expected 6 or 7C at Exeter, it is. If we
had had a truly cold spell high Dartmoor would be in the range -8C to -3C as
day maxes. I suspect that in the 1960s those sort of temperatures were
relatively common. I suspect the same goes for Europe, it is only at
altitude that there is "proper" cold. The USA seems different but they do
not have the "benefit" of a gulf stream, which lends weight to the fact that
higher SSTs will give us *on average* milder winters even in colder snaps.
Global warming may mean that we may get more extremes like 2010 or March
2013, but on the whole winters are milder and low-level snow is rarer, so
far. Nobody knows how the synoptics will pan out in a future warmer climate.

Will
--
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

On 06/02/2015 10:14, Eskimo Will wrote:

wrote in message
...
On Thursday, February 5, 2015 at 8:20:54 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
I think Keith's 'European update' may give the real clue as to why
this airflow is not terribly cold.

-------------------------------------------------------
Yes I think that's the main factor. Sea temperatures are higher these
days and the Baltic freezes less. But we don't seem to see the Continent
in the freezer too often these days and that must affect the temperature
of the air reaching the East coast on a North Easterly surely. I'm
confident if Europe gets another cold winter Essex will! Unless you are
in the minority at altitude I doubt anywhere has had a truly cold spell
yet this winter.
=====================

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/an...t.2.5.2015.gif

Warmer to the north (+1.5°C), but anomalies are cooler in the south
north sea. Certainly the lack of severe cold over the continent and
Scandinavia seems to be main problem.
--
Keith (Southend)
"Weather Home & Abroad"
http://www.southendweather.net
Twitter:@LawnscienceEssx

On Friday, February 6, 2015 at 10:52:45 AM UTC, Keith (Southend)G wrote:
On 06/02/2015 10:14, Eskimo Will wrote:

wrote in message
...
On Thursday, February 5, 2015 at 8:20:54 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
I think Keith's 'European update' may give the real clue as to why
this airflow is not terribly cold.

-------------------------------------------------------
Yes I think that's the main factor. Sea temperatures are higher these
days and the Baltic freezes less. But we don't seem to see the Continent
in the freezer too often these days and that must affect the temperature
of the air reaching the East coast on a North Easterly surely. I'm
confident if Europe gets another cold winter Essex will! Unless you are
in the minority at altitude I doubt anywhere has had a truly cold spell
yet this winter.
=====================

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/an...t.2.5.2015.gif

Warmer to the north (+1.5°C), but anomalies are cooler in the south
north sea. Certainly the lack of severe cold over the continent and
Scandinavia seems to be main problem.
--
Keith (Southend)
"Weather Home & Abroad"
http://www.southendweather.net
Twitter:@LawnscienceEssx

Agreed. It's just not as cold in Europe. GW is having an effect here and winters Europe-wide are, on average, less cold that they were.

That's not to say we can't get severe cold, however, it's just less likely than it was 30-50 years ago and the feeds from Europe to the UK are likely to be milder - hence it is not as cold in an Easterly, like this one.

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/an...t.2.5.2015.gif

Warmer to the north (+1.5°C), but anomalies are cooler in the south
north sea. Certainly the lack of severe cold over the continent and
Scandinavia seems to be main problem.
--
Keith (Southend)
"Weather Home & Abroad"
http://www.southendweather.net
Twitter:@LawnscienceEssx

Amazing how much anomaly maps vary, even when the source (and date!) is the same
http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/o...vy-anom-bb.gif - same date as your link. Perhaps it's the same data using different norms (Another Graham might be able to help here)

For near the UK I tend to go by the bu0y readings. This is a good site for inshore waters http://www.channelcoast.org/data_man...e_data/charts/

Graham
Penzance

In message ,
writes
On Thursday, February 5, 2015 at 8:20:54 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
I think Keith's 'European update' may give the real clue as to why
this airflow is not terribly cold.

-------------------------------------------------------
Yes I think that's the main factor. Sea temperatures are higher these
days and the Baltic freezes less. But we don't seem to see the
Continent in the freezer too often these days and that must affect the
temperature of the air reaching the East coast on a North Easterly
surely. I'm confident if Europe gets another cold winter Essex will!
Unless you are in the minority at altitude I doubt anywhere has had a
truly cold spell yet this winter.

Although the wind has been from the NE for the last 24 hours or so, I
think if you track it back the air has had a maritime rather than a
continental origin. It's certainly not been within a couple of thousand
miles of Siberia, whatever the media might be saying, nor even from
anywhere near European Russia (even in the Good Old Days it was rare to
get air here that was genuinely from beyond the Urals).

What I've noticed this winter is that Reykjavik never seems to have been
severely cold. Its maxima don't seem to have ever been more than a
degree or two below freezing. In really cold northerly outbreaks in the
past, maxima of -5C were common there, and sometimes as low as -8 or -9.
When we've had air arriving from that direction, it's inevitably going
to be a good few degrees warmer by the time it reaches us. It's probably
linked to how far north the edge of the ice-cap is these days.
--
I'm not paid to implement the recognition of irony.
(Taken, with the author's permission, from a LiveJournal post)