On Wed, 11 Mar 2015 09:04:38 -0000, "Anne B" wrote:

None of which addresses my actual question (in the 'What
triggers a custard warning?' thread here), which is why a
forecast wind event triggered a warning starting at the time
when the wind rose above 12 mph gusting 24, but a forecast
***for the same area*** two days later of 24 mph gusting 46 did
not.

I raised this very point with the MO years ago and gave up after the
reply didn't really address the question.

--
Alan White
Mozilla Firefox and Forte Agent.
By Loch Long, twenty-eight miles NW of Glasgow, Scotland.
Webcam and weather:- http://windycroft.co.uk/weather

I agree and enlarging on my earlier reply, it looks as though the
criteria have changed since I discussed it with them in February 2008.

What your saying is more or less what I was asking for then but at that
time in response to my criticism:-

quote from MO
In general you are correct that we do only issue warnings according to
criteria and apply the same criteria for all areas of the U.K. for
consistency.
/quote from MO

Don't forget, this was Feb 2008.

--
Alan White
Mozilla Firefox and Forte Agent.
By Loch Long, twenty-eight miles NW of Glasgow, Scotland.
Webcam and weather:- http://windycroft.co.uk/weather

Strangely, in the same year, in response to this event, http://www.sennen-cove.com/10march08.htm when I recorded the 2nd strongest gust I've ever recorded in sheltered Penzance (73mph AND there was no warning in force at the time) I got the reply.

"Conditions had not reached threshold values for a warning in a coastal location." which completely contradicts what you were told.

Yes, I know I've said this before, but it was the biggest sea in living memory from Land's End to Perranporth (all be it with not quite the long period power of 2014) a large tree in my garden blew down and landed on a garage, and my conservatory was damaged, so it is rather imprinted in my mind.
John Chappell at Land's End had recorded 80mph for 10 consecutive areas.

There had been a weather warning, bit it was for the preceeding SW ahead of the depression and it was removed at 11:00, just as conditions were starting to deteriorate. I've lost count of the number of wind warnings we've had when predicted gusts have been just 50-60mph.


Graham
Penzance

On Wed, 11 Mar 2015 09:04:38 -0000, "Anne B" wrote:
I can think of other examples - but the message I am trying
to convey
is that it should be the impact rather than the actual
meteorological
values that is important - and the warning system reflects
this.
I think we're agreed.

I agree that part of the assessment of a warning should be the
extent to which the expected weather deviates from the average,
or norm, for the area affected. However I am not sure that the
number of people affected should be any part of the assessment
undertaken by the MetO. For each of the affected individuals,
the effect is every bit as great regardless of how many others
are in the same plight.

One would have thought that the emergency services, generally
speaking, are aware of roughly how many people live where, and
hence are capable of assessing for themselves the likely demands
on them resulting from a weather event. But perhaps I assume too
much.
The MetO don't write the rules. They probably advised on what would
constitute a meteorological hazard, but are basically following a
process that is specified by others.

None of which addresses my actual question (in the 'What
triggers a custard warning?' thread here), which is why a
forecast wind event triggered a warning starting at the time
when the wind rose above 12 mph gusting 24, but a forecast
***for the same area*** two days later of 24 mph gusting 46 did
not.
Warnings cover an area. You are quoting from an automated
site-specific forecast that is not quality controlled. Other
locations within the area of the warning were likely to receive wind
strengths that would trigger a warning threshold. There is guidance
on the MetO website that covers this - see
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/guide/weather/warnings.

--
Freddie
Pontesbury, Shropshire
102m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
https://Twitter.com/PontesburyWx for hourly reports

On Wed, 11 Mar 2015 10:49:05 +0000, Alan
wrote:
I can think of other examples - but the message I am trying to
convey
is that it should be the impact rather than the actual
meteorological
values that is important - and the warning system reflects this.

I agree and enlarging on my earlier reply, it looks as though the
criteria have changed since I discussed it with them in February
2008.

What your saying is more or less what I was asking for then

Looks like they listened :-) FWIW I think the impacts-based approach
works - so we wouldn't get a warning for, say, dense fog on country
lanes over Dartmoor, but there would be a warning for the same if it
affected the M5 at Exeter.

--
Freddie
Pontesbury, Shropshire
102m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
https://Twitter.com/PontesburyWx for hourly reports

On Wed, 11 Mar 2015 11:38:16 +0000, Freddie wrote:

Looks like they listened :-)...

Goodness!

--
Alan White
Mozilla Firefox and Forte Agent.
By Loch Long, twenty-eight miles NW of Glasgow, Scotland.
Webcam and weather:- http://windycroft.co.uk/weather

On Wed, 11 Mar 2015 04:16:06 -0700 (PDT), Graham Easterling
wrote:

Strangely, in the same year, in response to this event, http://www.sennen-cove.com/10march08.htm when I recorded the 2nd strongest gust I've ever recorded in sheltered Penzance (73mph AND there was no warning in force at the time) I got the reply.

"Conditions had not reached threshold values for a warning in a coastal location." which completely contradicts what you were told.

Making it up as they went along?

--
Alan White
Mozilla Firefox and Forte Agent.
By Loch Long, twenty-eight miles NW of Glasgow, Scotland.
Webcam and weather:- http://windycroft.co.uk/weather

Freddie wrote:

On Wed, 11 Mar 2015 10:49:05 +0000, Alan
wrote:
I can think of other examples - but the message I am trying to
convey
is that it should be the impact rather than the actual
meteorological
values that is important - and the warning system reflects this.

I agree and enlarging on my earlier reply, it looks as though the
criteria have changed since I discussed it with them in February
2008.

What your saying is more or less what I was asking for then

Looks like they listened :-) FWIW I think the impacts-based approach works -
so we wouldn't get a warning for, say, dense fog on country lanes over
Dartmoor, but there would be a warning for the same if it affected the M5 at
Exeter.

Is it only motorways that count? In this part of the country the A6 (Bakewell
to Stockport) and the A623 (Chesterfield to Stockport) are often affected by
thick hill fog but I can't recall ever seeing a warning for this even though
both are busy main roads. Come to think of it, I can't recall seeing a warning
for thick hill fog on the M62, though I'm sure that it isn't uncommon.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
http://peakdistrictweather.org

"Norman" wrote in message
...
Freddie wrote:

On Wed, 11 Mar 2015 10:49:05 +0000, Alan

wrote:
I can think of other examples - but the message I am trying to
convey
is that it should be the impact rather than the actual
meteorological
values that is important - and the warning system reflects this.

I agree and enlarging on my earlier reply, it looks as though the
criteria have changed since I discussed it with them in February
2008.

What your saying is more or less what I was asking for then

Looks like they listened :-) FWIW I think the impacts-based approach
works -
so we wouldn't get a warning for, say, dense fog on country lanes over
Dartmoor, but there would be a warning for the same if it affected the M5
at
Exeter.

Is it only motorways that count? In this part of the country the A6
(Bakewell
to Stockport) and the A623 (Chesterfield to Stockport) are often affected
by
thick hill fog but I can't recall ever seeing a warning for this even
though
both are busy main roads. Come to think of it, I can't recall seeing a
warning
for thick hill fog on the M62, though I'm sure that it isn't uncommon.


Hill fog is ignored - full stop. I had that in writing when I worked at the
MetO.
You will never see a yellow or any other colour warning for hill fog. Yes I
know it is ridiculous but there you go. We do get a *lot* of fog up here on
Dartmoor (only this morning it was thick (less than 100 metres) and you do
get used to it, plus most who live up here are used to it and you don't get
the idiots with X-ray vision.

Will
--
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

On Wed, 11 Mar 2015 16:59:36 -0000, "Eskimo Will"
wrote:
"Norman" wrote in message
...
Freddie wrote:

On Wed, 11 Mar 2015 10:49:05 +0000, Alan

wrote:
I can think of other examples - but the message I am trying
to
convey
is that it should be the impact rather than the actual
meteorological
values that is important - and the warning system reflects
this.

I agree and enlarging on my earlier reply, it looks as though
the
criteria have changed since I discussed it with them in
February
2008.

What your saying is more or less what I was asking for then

Looks like they listened :-) FWIW I think the impacts-based
approach
works -
so we wouldn't get a warning for, say, dense fog on country
lanes over
Dartmoor, but there would be a warning for the same if it
affected the M5
at
Exeter.

Is it only motorways that count? In this part of the country the
A6
(Bakewell
to Stockport) and the A623 (Chesterfield to Stockport) are often
affected
by
thick hill fog but I can't recall ever seeing a warning for this
even
though
both are busy main roads. Come to think of it, I can't recall
seeing a
warning
for thick hill fog on the M62, though I'm sure that it isn't
uncommon.



Hill fog is ignored - full stop. I had that in writing when I
worked at the
MetO.
You will never see a yellow or any other colour warning for hill
fog. Yes I
know it is ridiculous but there you go. We do get a *lot* of fog up
here on
Dartmoor (only this morning it was thick (less than 100 metres) and
you do
get used to it, plus most who live up here are used to it and you
don't get
the idiots with X-ray vision.


Will
--

http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...Vantage_Pro.ht
m
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

Okay, I think I picked a terrible example to use to illustrate a
point. Try 70 mph wind gusts over the Cairngorms versus the same over
the Central Lowlands. Same point being made, but with better sample
data :-)

--
Freddie
Pontesbury, Shropshire
102m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
https://Twitter.com/PontesburyWx for hourly reports

On Wednesday, 11 March 2015 17:25:01 UTC, Freddie wrote:
On Wed, 11 Mar 2015 16:59:36 -0000, "Eskimo Will"
wrote:
"Norman" wrote in message
...
Freddie wrote:

On Wed, 11 Mar 2015 10:49:05 +0000, Alan
White
wrote:
I can think of other examples - but the message I am trying
to
convey
is that it should be the impact rather than the actual
meteorological
values that is important - and the warning system reflects
this.

I agree and enlarging on my earlier reply, it looks as though
the
criteria have changed since I discussed it with them in
February
2008.

What your saying is more or less what I was asking for then

Looks like they listened :-) FWIW I think the impacts-based
approach
works -
so we wouldn't get a warning for, say, dense fog on country
lanes over
Dartmoor, but there would be a warning for the same if it
affected the M5
at
Exeter.

Is it only motorways that count? In this part of the country the
A6
(Bakewell
to Stockport) and the A623 (Chesterfield to Stockport) are often
affected
by
thick hill fog but I can't recall ever seeing a warning for this
even
though
both are busy main roads. Come to think of it, I can't recall
seeing a
warning
for thick hill fog on the M62, though I'm sure that it isn't
uncommon.



Hill fog is ignored - full stop. I had that in writing when I
worked at the
MetO.
You will never see a yellow or any other colour warning for hill
fog. Yes I
know it is ridiculous but there you go. We do get a *lot* of fog up
here on
Dartmoor (only this morning it was thick (less than 100 metres) and
you do
get used to it, plus most who live up here are used to it and you
don't get
the idiots with X-ray vision.


Will
--

http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...Vantage_Pro.ht
m
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

Okay, I think I picked a terrible example to use to illustrate a
point. Try 70 mph wind gusts over the Cairngorms versus the same over
the Central Lowlands. Same point being made, but with better sample
data :-)

--
Freddie
Pontesbury, Shropshire
102m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
https://Twitter.com/PontesburyWx for hourly reports
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The key point concerns impacts.
The UKMO approach to warnings is amusing or not amusing whichever way you view it.
As I said before, the UKMO views those in N. Scotland tougher than those down south and more able to withstand extreme weather.

However, the impact of loosing your roof in a storm force wind is not a pleasant experience whether you are down south or up north. It would be nice to be prepared where ever you are.

So the UKMO talk of impacts is a bit pathetic if you ask me.

Anyway, I thought the UKMO's role was to forecast the weather and then let other authorities prepare given the forecast.
They seem to want to tell us to take a brolly if it is going to rain, or put on a woolly jumper if it is going to be chilly.

Impacts indeed!

Len
Wembury in the deep south
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