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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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#11
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On Wed, 11 Mar 2015 09:04:38 -0000, "Anne B" wrote:
None of which addresses my actual question (in the 'What triggers a custard warning?' thread here), which is why a forecast wind event triggered a warning starting at the time when the wind rose above 12 mph gusting 24, but a forecast ***for the same area*** two days later of 24 mph gusting 46 did not. I raised this very point with the MO years ago and gave up after the reply didn't really address the question. -- Alan White Mozilla Firefox and Forte Agent. By Loch Long, twenty-eight miles NW of Glasgow, Scotland. Webcam and weather:- http://windycroft.co.uk/weather |
#12
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![]() I agree and enlarging on my earlier reply, it looks as though the criteria have changed since I discussed it with them in February 2008. What your saying is more or less what I was asking for then but at that time in response to my criticism:- quote from MO In general you are correct that we do only issue warnings according to criteria and apply the same criteria for all areas of the U.K. for consistency. /quote from MO Don't forget, this was Feb 2008. -- Alan White Mozilla Firefox and Forte Agent. By Loch Long, twenty-eight miles NW of Glasgow, Scotland. Webcam and weather:- http://windycroft.co.uk/weather Strangely, in the same year, in response to this event, http://www.sennen-cove.com/10march08.htm when I recorded the 2nd strongest gust I've ever recorded in sheltered Penzance (73mph AND there was no warning in force at the time) I got the reply. "Conditions had not reached threshold values for a warning in a coastal location." which completely contradicts what you were told. Yes, I know I've said this before, but it was the biggest sea in living memory from Land's End to Perranporth (all be it with not quite the long period power of 2014) a large tree in my garden blew down and landed on a garage, and my conservatory was damaged, so it is rather imprinted in my mind. John Chappell at Land's End had recorded 80mph for 10 consecutive areas. There had been a weather warning, bit it was for the preceeding SW ahead of the depression and it was removed at 11:00, just as conditions were starting to deteriorate. I've lost count of the number of wind warnings we've had when predicted gusts have been just 50-60mph. Graham Penzance |
#13
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On Wed, 11 Mar 2015 09:04:38 -0000, "Anne B" wrote:
I can think of other examples - but the message I am trying to convey is that it should be the impact rather than the actual meteorological values that is important - and the warning system reflects this. I think we're agreed. I agree that part of the assessment of a warning should be the extent to which the expected weather deviates from the average, or norm, for the area affected. However I am not sure that the number of people affected should be any part of the assessment undertaken by the MetO. For each of the affected individuals, the effect is every bit as great regardless of how many others are in the same plight. One would have thought that the emergency services, generally speaking, are aware of roughly how many people live where, and hence are capable of assessing for themselves the likely demands on them resulting from a weather event. But perhaps I assume too much. The MetO don't write the rules. They probably advised on what would constitute a meteorological hazard, but are basically following a process that is specified by others. None of which addresses my actual question (in the 'What triggers a custard warning?' thread here), which is why a forecast wind event triggered a warning starting at the time when the wind rose above 12 mph gusting 24, but a forecast ***for the same area*** two days later of 24 mph gusting 46 did not. Warnings cover an area. You are quoting from an automated site-specific forecast that is not quality controlled. Other locations within the area of the warning were likely to receive wind strengths that would trigger a warning threshold. There is guidance on the MetO website that covers this - see http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/guide/weather/warnings. -- Freddie Pontesbury, Shropshire 102m AMSL http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/ https://Twitter.com/PontesburyWx for hourly reports |
#14
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On Wed, 11 Mar 2015 10:49:05 +0000, Alan
wrote: I can think of other examples - but the message I am trying to convey is that it should be the impact rather than the actual meteorological values that is important - and the warning system reflects this. I agree and enlarging on my earlier reply, it looks as though the criteria have changed since I discussed it with them in February 2008. What your saying is more or less what I was asking for then Looks like they listened :-) FWIW I think the impacts-based approach works - so we wouldn't get a warning for, say, dense fog on country lanes over Dartmoor, but there would be a warning for the same if it affected the M5 at Exeter. -- Freddie Pontesbury, Shropshire 102m AMSL http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/ https://Twitter.com/PontesburyWx for hourly reports |
#15
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On Wed, 11 Mar 2015 11:38:16 +0000, Freddie wrote:
Looks like they listened :-)... Goodness! -- Alan White Mozilla Firefox and Forte Agent. By Loch Long, twenty-eight miles NW of Glasgow, Scotland. Webcam and weather:- http://windycroft.co.uk/weather |
#16
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On Wed, 11 Mar 2015 04:16:06 -0700 (PDT), Graham Easterling
wrote: Strangely, in the same year, in response to this event, http://www.sennen-cove.com/10march08.htm when I recorded the 2nd strongest gust I've ever recorded in sheltered Penzance (73mph AND there was no warning in force at the time) I got the reply. "Conditions had not reached threshold values for a warning in a coastal location." which completely contradicts what you were told. Making it up as they went along? -- Alan White Mozilla Firefox and Forte Agent. By Loch Long, twenty-eight miles NW of Glasgow, Scotland. Webcam and weather:- http://windycroft.co.uk/weather |
#17
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Freddie wrote:
On Wed, 11 Mar 2015 10:49:05 +0000, Alan wrote: I can think of other examples - but the message I am trying to convey is that it should be the impact rather than the actual meteorological values that is important - and the warning system reflects this. I agree and enlarging on my earlier reply, it looks as though the criteria have changed since I discussed it with them in February 2008. What your saying is more or less what I was asking for then Looks like they listened :-) FWIW I think the impacts-based approach works - so we wouldn't get a warning for, say, dense fog on country lanes over Dartmoor, but there would be a warning for the same if it affected the M5 at Exeter. Is it only motorways that count? In this part of the country the A6 (Bakewell to Stockport) and the A623 (Chesterfield to Stockport) are often affected by thick hill fog but I can't recall ever seeing a warning for this even though both are busy main roads. Come to think of it, I can't recall seeing a warning for thick hill fog on the M62, though I'm sure that it isn't uncommon. -- Norman Lynagh Tideswell, Derbyshire 303m a.s.l. http://peakdistrictweather.org |
#18
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![]() "Norman" wrote in message ... Freddie wrote: On Wed, 11 Mar 2015 10:49:05 +0000, Alan wrote: I can think of other examples - but the message I am trying to convey is that it should be the impact rather than the actual meteorological values that is important - and the warning system reflects this. I agree and enlarging on my earlier reply, it looks as though the criteria have changed since I discussed it with them in February 2008. What your saying is more or less what I was asking for then Looks like they listened :-) FWIW I think the impacts-based approach works - so we wouldn't get a warning for, say, dense fog on country lanes over Dartmoor, but there would be a warning for the same if it affected the M5 at Exeter. Is it only motorways that count? In this part of the country the A6 (Bakewell to Stockport) and the A623 (Chesterfield to Stockport) are often affected by thick hill fog but I can't recall ever seeing a warning for this even though both are busy main roads. Come to think of it, I can't recall seeing a warning for thick hill fog on the M62, though I'm sure that it isn't uncommon. Hill fog is ignored - full stop. I had that in writing when I worked at the MetO. You will never see a yellow or any other colour warning for hill fog. Yes I know it is ridiculous but there you go. We do get a *lot* of fog up here on Dartmoor (only this morning it was thick (less than 100 metres) and you do get used to it, plus most who live up here are used to it and you don't get the idiots with X-ray vision. Will -- http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl) --------------------------------------------- |
#19
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On Wed, 11 Mar 2015 16:59:36 -0000, "Eskimo Will"
wrote: "Norman" wrote in message ... Freddie wrote: On Wed, 11 Mar 2015 10:49:05 +0000, Alan wrote: I can think of other examples - but the message I am trying to convey is that it should be the impact rather than the actual meteorological values that is important - and the warning system reflects this. I agree and enlarging on my earlier reply, it looks as though the criteria have changed since I discussed it with them in February 2008. What your saying is more or less what I was asking for then Looks like they listened :-) FWIW I think the impacts-based approach works - so we wouldn't get a warning for, say, dense fog on country lanes over Dartmoor, but there would be a warning for the same if it affected the M5 at Exeter. Is it only motorways that count? In this part of the country the A6 (Bakewell to Stockport) and the A623 (Chesterfield to Stockport) are often affected by thick hill fog but I can't recall ever seeing a warning for this even though both are busy main roads. Come to think of it, I can't recall seeing a warning for thick hill fog on the M62, though I'm sure that it isn't uncommon. Hill fog is ignored - full stop. I had that in writing when I worked at the MetO. You will never see a yellow or any other colour warning for hill fog. Yes I know it is ridiculous but there you go. We do get a *lot* of fog up here on Dartmoor (only this morning it was thick (less than 100 metres) and you do get used to it, plus most who live up here are used to it and you don't get the idiots with X-ray vision. Will -- http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...Vantage_Pro.ht m Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl) --------------------------------------------- Okay, I think I picked a terrible example to use to illustrate a point. Try 70 mph wind gusts over the Cairngorms versus the same over the Central Lowlands. Same point being made, but with better sample data :-) -- Freddie Pontesbury, Shropshire 102m AMSL http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/ https://Twitter.com/PontesburyWx for hourly reports |
#20
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On Wednesday, 11 March 2015 17:25:01 UTC, Freddie wrote:
On Wed, 11 Mar 2015 16:59:36 -0000, "Eskimo Will" wrote: "Norman" wrote in message ... Freddie wrote: On Wed, 11 Mar 2015 10:49:05 +0000, Alan White wrote: I can think of other examples - but the message I am trying to convey is that it should be the impact rather than the actual meteorological values that is important - and the warning system reflects this. I agree and enlarging on my earlier reply, it looks as though the criteria have changed since I discussed it with them in February 2008. What your saying is more or less what I was asking for then Looks like they listened :-) FWIW I think the impacts-based approach works - so we wouldn't get a warning for, say, dense fog on country lanes over Dartmoor, but there would be a warning for the same if it affected the M5 at Exeter. Is it only motorways that count? In this part of the country the A6 (Bakewell to Stockport) and the A623 (Chesterfield to Stockport) are often affected by thick hill fog but I can't recall ever seeing a warning for this even though both are busy main roads. Come to think of it, I can't recall seeing a warning for thick hill fog on the M62, though I'm sure that it isn't uncommon. Hill fog is ignored - full stop. I had that in writing when I worked at the MetO. You will never see a yellow or any other colour warning for hill fog. Yes I know it is ridiculous but there you go. We do get a *lot* of fog up here on Dartmoor (only this morning it was thick (less than 100 metres) and you do get used to it, plus most who live up here are used to it and you don't get the idiots with X-ray vision. Will -- http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...Vantage_Pro.ht m Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl) --------------------------------------------- Okay, I think I picked a terrible example to use to illustrate a point. Try 70 mph wind gusts over the Cairngorms versus the same over the Central Lowlands. Same point being made, but with better sample data :-) -- Freddie Pontesbury, Shropshire 102m AMSL http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/ https://Twitter.com/PontesburyWx for hourly reports -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The key point concerns impacts. The UKMO approach to warnings is amusing or not amusing whichever way you view it. As I said before, the UKMO views those in N. Scotland tougher than those down south and more able to withstand extreme weather. However, the impact of loosing your roof in a storm force wind is not a pleasant experience whether you are down south or up north. It would be nice to be prepared where ever you are. So the UKMO talk of impacts is a bit pathetic if you ask me. Anyway, I thought the UKMO's role was to forecast the weather and then let other authorities prepare given the forecast. They seem to want to tell us to take a brolly if it is going to rain, or put on a woolly jumper if it is going to be chilly. Impacts indeed! Len Wembury in the deep south -------------------------------------------------------------------- |
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