-looks like they'll miss me in the south East of greater London and Tudor down in Banjo playing country.

On Thursday, 4 June 2015 23:57:23 UTC+1, Lawrence Jenkins wrote:
-looks like they'll miss me in the south East of greater London and Tudor down in Banjo playing country.

Pathetic. They've fizzled out already, Okay next.

On Thursday, 4 June 2015 23:57:23 UTC+1, Lawrence Jenkins wrote:
-looks like they'll miss me in the south East of greater London and Tudor down in Banjo playing country.

Banjo? I know more banjo jokes than there are fronts on a Met Office fax chart.
All you've got over the Channel at the moment is a straggly advance guard of light rain, the thunder remaining in the Bay of Biscay. Not to say there won't be something a little more active tomorrow. On the 0030 Radio 4 forecast Tomasz Shafernacker said tomorrow morning would be warm and humid in the SE and said there could be thunderstorms, implying a connection between these two phenomena. Rubbish, Tom. There is no really humid surface air on the continent and the surface wind is ESE, at right angles to the movement of the storms which will zip by rather quickly. It could be classified as a brief Spanish Plume.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey

On the 0030 Radio 4 forecast Tomasz Shafernacker said tomorrow morning would be warm and humid in the SE and said there could be thunderstorms, implying a connection between these two phenomena. Rubbish, Tom. There is no really humid surface air on the continent and the surface wind is ESE, at right angles to the movement of the storms which will zip by rather quickly. It could be classified as a brief Spanish Plume.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey

It really annoys me how careless most weather presenters are with associations.

It's the direct association of wind strength and swell size at the same spot that really irritates me (though I suspect I'm in a minority!)

This week's been a great example. On Monday we were warned that because of the strong winds there were be very large waves along the Atlantic coast for Monday/Tuesday. Really?

Take a look http://www.easterling.freeserve.co.uk/WindSea.html The top photo is from Sennen Harbour early Tuesday afternoon. Out to sea it was still a good F6 & it was rough, but big waves?

Then Wednesday, a calm still, sunny evening. All love and peace on the forecasting front but look at the sea - at that's in the harbour! 12' swell on the beach - that is big for June. That's what I call iffy. I went in at Perranuthnoe & it was fairly exciting. (No lifeguards but I wasn't alone)

Thursday F3-4 SE and much calmer.

A big swell is dependent on fetch, wind strength & duration, and then travels far beyond the area of generation.

Graham
Penzance

Graham Easterling wrote:


snip



A big swell is dependent on fetch, wind strength & duration, and then travels
far beyond the area of generation.



.........and it travels on great circle tracks, which results in long-distance
swell sometimes arriving from directions that seem to be intuitively wrong.
Charts on a gnomonic projection reveal all in this respect. Gnomonic charts
give a very distorted appearance to oceans and land masses but on these charts
great circles are straight lines. For example, SW'ly winds associated with a
major hurricane off the mid-Atlantic coast of the USA will produce a swell that
reaches Cornwall from WNW.


--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
http://peakdistrictweather.org

"Graham Easterling" wrote in message
...
A big swell is dependent on fetch, wind strength & duration, and then
travels far beyond the area of generation.

Really? I didn't know that, but then I used to forecast for the North Sea
oil rigs in the 1970s.
Anyone remember SWIGS developed by Peter Deeks ( a manual way of predicting
swell) ?

Will
--
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

........and it travels on great circle tracks, which results in long-distance
swell sometimes arriving from directions that seem to be intuitively wrong.
Charts on a gnomonic projection reveal all in this respect. Gnomonic charts
give a very distorted appearance to oceans and land masses but on these charts
great circles are straight lines. For example, SW'ly winds associated with a
major hurricane off the mid-Atlantic coast of the USA will produce a swell that
reaches Cornwall from WNW.


--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
http://peakdistrictweather.org

.. . and of course, you can get a very long great circle route to the north Cornish coast, so the size of the eventual swell hitting the north coast often isn't really subject to a fetch limitation, it's typically duration limited. Summer rarely creates any long duration events.

I know I've mentioned this before, but http://www.amazon.co.uk/Surf-Science.../dp/0906720362 is am excellent book.

Best make the most of Magic Seaweed forecasts, now it's been taken over I fear it's only a matter of time before it becomes much more purely modelled based. That's OK for offshore forecasts, but inshore boy do you need the human input.

Onshore, small & messy now, not looking good for a while http://magicseaweed.com/Live-Sennen-Webcam/65/ It's set to become basically flat.

Graham
Penzance

For example, SW'ly winds associated with a
major hurricane off the mid-Atlantic coast of the USA will produce a swell that
reaches Cornwall from WNW.

Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
http://peakdistrictweather.org

I once spent an entire day at Praa Sands waiting for an ex hurricane swell, forecast to arrive late morning. The early fast moving & clean waves are often best. On this occasion only 3-4' or so but perfect for surfing & bodyboarding. It was well forecast on the models, I met a chap who'd come from Bristol.

Graham

On Friday, 5 June 2015 01:13:14 UTC+1, Tudor Hughes wrote:
On Thursday, 4 June 2015 23:57:23 UTC+1, Lawrence Jenkins wrote:
-looks like they'll miss me in the south East of greater London and Tudor down in Banjo playing country.

Banjo? I know more banjo jokes than there are fronts on a Met Office fax chart.
All you've got over the Channel at the moment is a straggly advance guard of light rain, the thunder remaining in the Bay of Biscay. Not to say there won't be something a little more active tomorrow. On the 0030 Radio 4 forecast Tomasz Shafernacker said tomorrow morning would be warm and humid in the SE and said there could be thunderstorms, implying a connection between these two phenomena. Rubbish, Tom. There is no really humid surface air on the continent and the surface wind is ESE, at right angles to the movement of the storms which will zip by rather quickly. It could be classified as a brief Spanish Plume.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey

Ah well they did turn up sporadically around dawn.

By the way Tudor sorry for getting your instrument od choice wrong, but every time I think of Croydon I hear 'Duelling Banjo's'. ;-)