On Friday, August 7, 2015 at 9:03:38 PM UTC+1, Freddie wrote:
No end in sight to the enhanced mobility we have seen this summer,
with a stronger than normal jet flowing at a more southerly than
usual latitude - probably influenced in part by the SST anomaly
pattern stretching across the Atlantic.* The SST anomaly pattern
appears to be on the change from the western side of the
Atlantic, so maybe there will be a pattern shift in the
atmosphere come early September - one to watch!!
*
At T+240 on Monday 17 August it looks as if the NW-SE distribution
of weather in the UK will be persisting, with a general WSW?ly
flow across all parts.* Pressure looks like being high in a belt
stretching from the Azores high into France, Germany and Poland,
with ridging towards another high over eastern Scandinavia.* The
parent low pressure will persist in the Iceland area, with child
centres spawned on its southern side by upper air perturbations
running through the jet, and travelling ENE close to NW
Scotland.* I think there will be one such low between N Scotland
and the Faeroes at T+240, with the polar front trailing back
SW?wards over NW Scotland and Northern Ireland.* PM air will
follow this front across the country, replacing the warmer TM or
rPM air that is likely to cover most of the UK at
T+240.
*
In terms of weather: Scotland and Northern Ireland - rain at first
followed by showers, probably very little traversing to E
Scotland..* Cool and breezy.* NE and NW England and NW Wales -
cloudy with rain spreading from the west, probably very little
east of the Pennines.* Average temperatures.* Rest of Wales,
Central and SW England - bright/sunny at first, cloudy later,
with maybe some light rain or drizzle in the west of Wales.* Warm
at first.* CS and SE England, East Anglia - dry and sunny,
warm.
*
Main uncertainities: position of the front for one.* Also - ECMWF
Operational hints at a trough disruption at T+216, which would
drastically alter the pressure pattern if it should come to pass
(think anticyclone over the UK), but not many ensemble members
showed this, and it was absent from the GFS, which was
progressive.* Therefore I think it is a low probablility - but
not zero.* I hope the disruption doesn't happen!!

--
Freddie
Pontesbury
Shropshire
102m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
http://twitter.com/PontesburyWx for hourly reports


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Good luck Freddie. For me, that ECM chart would preclude a forecast. My criteria are not met.

On Friday, August 7, 2015 at 9:08:28 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
On Friday, August 7, 2015 at 9:03:38 PM UTC+1, Freddie wrote:
No end in sight to the enhanced mobility we have seen this summer,
with a stronger than normal jet flowing at a more southerly than
usual latitude - probably influenced in part by the SST anomaly
pattern stretching across the Atlantic.* The SST anomaly pattern
appears to be on the change from the western side of the
Atlantic, so maybe there will be a pattern shift in the
atmosphere come early September - one to watch!!
*
At T+240 on Monday 17 August it looks as if the NW-SE distribution
of weather in the UK will be persisting, with a general WSW?ly
flow across all parts.* Pressure looks like being high in a belt
stretching from the Azores high into France, Germany and Poland,
with ridging towards another high over eastern Scandinavia.* The
parent low pressure will persist in the Iceland area, with child
centres spawned on its southern side by upper air perturbations
running through the jet, and travelling ENE close to NW
Scotland.* I think there will be one such low between N Scotland
and the Faeroes at T+240, with the polar front trailing back
SW?wards over NW Scotland and Northern Ireland.* PM air will
follow this front across the country, replacing the warmer TM or
rPM air that is likely to cover most of the UK at
T+240.
*
In terms of weather: Scotland and Northern Ireland - rain at first
followed by showers, probably very little traversing to E
Scotland..* Cool and breezy.* NE and NW England and NW Wales -
cloudy with rain spreading from the west, probably very little
east of the Pennines.* Average temperatures.* Rest of Wales,
Central and SW England - bright/sunny at first, cloudy later,
with maybe some light rain or drizzle in the west of Wales.* Warm
at first.* CS and SE England, East Anglia - dry and sunny,
warm.
*
Main uncertainities: position of the front for one.* Also - ECMWF
Operational hints at a trough disruption at T+216, which would
drastically alter the pressure pattern if it should come to pass
(think anticyclone over the UK), but not many ensemble members
showed this, and it was absent from the GFS, which was
progressive.* Therefore I think it is a low probablility - but
not zero.* I hope the disruption doesn't happen!!

--
Freddie
Pontesbury
Shropshire
102m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
http://twitter.com/PontesburyWx for hourly reports


----Android NewsGroup Reader----
http://usenet.sinaapp.com/

Good luck Freddie. For me, that ECM chart would preclude a forecast. My criteria are not met.

Comments Freddie?

On Tuesday, August 18, 2015 at 5:57:29 PM UTC+1, Freddie wrote:
Dawlish Wrote in message:
On Friday, August 7, 2015 at 9:08:28 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
On Friday, August 7, 2015 at 9:03:38 PM UTC+1, Freddie wrote:
No end in sight to the enhanced mobility we have seen this summer,
with a stronger than normal jet flowing at a more southerly than
usual latitude - probably influenced in part by the SST anomaly
pattern stretching across the Atlantic. The SST anomaly pattern
appears to be on the change from the western side of the
Atlantic, so maybe there will be a pattern shift in the
atmosphere come early September - one to watch!!

At T+240 on Monday 17 August it looks as if the NW-SE distribution
of weather in the UK will be persisting, with a general WSW?ly
flow across all parts. Pressure looks like being high in a belt
stretching from the Azores high into France, Germany and Poland,
with ridging towards another high over eastern Scandinavia. The
parent low pressure will persist in the Iceland area, with child
centres spawned on its southern side by upper air perturbations
running through the jet, and travelling ENE close to NW
Scotland. I think there will be one such low between N Scotland
and the Faeroes at T+240, with the polar front trailing back
SW?wards over NW Scotland and Northern Ireland. PM air will
follow this front across the country, replacing the warmer TM or
rPM air that is likely to cover most of the UK at
T+240.

In terms of weather: Scotland and Northern Ireland - rain at first
followed by showers, probably very little traversing to E
Scotland.. Cool and breezy. NE and NW England and NW Wales -
cloudy with rain spreading from the west, probably very little
east of the Pennines. Average temperatures. Rest of Wales,
Central and SW England - bright/sunny at first, cloudy later,
with maybe some light rain or drizzle in the west of Wales. Warm
at first. CS and SE England, East Anglia - dry and sunny,
warm.

Main uncertainities: position of the front for one. Also - ECMWF
Operational hints at a trough disruption at T+216, which would
drastically alter the pressure pattern if it should come to pass
(think anticyclone over the UK), but not many ensemble members
showed this, and it was absent from the GFS, which was
progressive. Therefore I think it is a low probablility - but
not zero. I hope the disruption doesn't happen!!

--
Freddie
Pontesbury
Shropshire
102m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
http://twitter.com/PontesburyWx for hourly reports


----Android NewsGroup Reader----
http://usenet.sinaapp.com/

Good luck Freddie. For me, that ECM chart would preclude a forecast. My criteria are not met.

Comments Freddie?


I haven't forgotten - I'm away from my desktop, and I'm not going
to attempt to look at model charts on my phone! Suffice to say,
the upper trough disruption did happen, and the forecast went
somewhat awry in places!!
--
Freddie
Pontesbury
Shropshire
102m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
http://twitter.com/PontesburyWx for hourly reports


----Android NewsGroup Reader----
http://usenet.sinaapp.com/

Sorry, I remembered this time - I forget last time! Yes it went awry. The lack of agreement between the models on the 7th, suggested that was a distinct possibility to me. I did miss your Friday forecast last week. Maybe this week?

No end in sight to the enhanced mobility we have seen this summer,
with a stronger than normal jet flowing at a more southerly than
usual latitude - probably influenced in part by the SST anomaly
pattern stretching across the Atlantic.* The SST anomaly pattern
appears to be on the change from the western side of the
Atlantic, so maybe there will be a pattern shift in the
atmosphere come early September - one to watch!!
*
At T+240 on Monday 17 August it looks as if the NW-SE distribution
of weather in the UK will be persisting, with a general WSW?ly
flow across all parts.* Pressure looks like being high in a belt
stretching from the Azores high into France, Germany and Poland,
with ridging towards another high over eastern Scandinavia.* The
parent low pressure will persist in the Iceland area, with child
centres spawned on its southern side by upper air perturbations
running through the jet, and travelling ENE close to NW
Scotland.* I think there will be one such low between N Scotland
and the Faeroes at T+240, with the polar front trailing back
SW?wards over NW Scotland and Northern Ireland.* PM air will
follow this front across the country, replacing the warmer TM or
rPM air that is likely to cover most of the UK at
T+240.
*
In terms of weather: Scotland and Northern Ireland - rain at first
followed by showers, probably very little traversing to E
Scotland..* Cool and breezy.* NE and NW England and NW Wales -
cloudy with rain spreading from the west, probably very little
east of the Pennines.* Average temperatures.* Rest of Wales,
Central and SW England - bright/sunny at first, cloudy later,
with maybe some light rain or drizzle in the west of Wales.* Warm
at first.* CS and SE England, East Anglia - dry and sunny,
warm.
*
Main uncertainities: position of the front for one.* Also - ECMWF
Operational hints at a trough disruption at T+216, which would
drastically alter the pressure pattern if it should come to pass
(think anticyclone over the UK), but not many ensemble members
showed this, and it was absent from the GFS, which was
progressive.* Therefore I think it is a low probablility - but
not zero.* I hope the disruption doesn't happen!!

--
Freddie
Pontesbury
Shropshire
102m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
http://twitter.com/PontesburyWx for hourly reports


----Android NewsGroup Reader----
http://usenet.sinaapp.com/

Dawlish Wrote in message:
On Friday, August 7, 2015 at 9:08:28 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
On Friday, August 7, 2015 at 9:03:38 PM UTC+1, Freddie wrote:
No end in sight to the enhanced mobility we have seen this summer,
with a stronger than normal jet flowing at a more southerly than
usual latitude - probably influenced in part by the SST anomaly
pattern stretching across the Atlantic. The SST anomaly pattern
appears to be on the change from the western side of the
Atlantic, so maybe there will be a pattern shift in the
atmosphere come early September - one to watch!!

At T+240 on Monday 17 August it looks as if the NW-SE distribution
of weather in the UK will be persisting, with a general WSW?ly
flow across all parts. Pressure looks like being high in a belt
stretching from the Azores high into France, Germany and Poland,
with ridging towards another high over eastern Scandinavia. The
parent low pressure will persist in the Iceland area, with child
centres spawned on its southern side by upper air perturbations
running through the jet, and travelling ENE close to NW
Scotland. I think there will be one such low between N Scotland
and the Faeroes at T+240, with the polar front trailing back
SW?wards over NW Scotland and Northern Ireland. PM air will
follow this front across the country, replacing the warmer TM or
rPM air that is likely to cover most of the UK at
T+240.

In terms of weather: Scotland and Northern Ireland - rain at first
followed by showers, probably very little traversing to E
Scotland.. Cool and breezy. NE and NW England and NW Wales -
cloudy with rain spreading from the west, probably very little
east of the Pennines. Average temperatures. Rest of Wales,
Central and SW England - bright/sunny at first, cloudy later,
with maybe some light rain or drizzle in the west of Wales. Warm
at first. CS and SE England, East Anglia - dry and sunny,
warm.

Main uncertainities: position of the front for one. Also - ECMWF
Operational hints at a trough disruption at T+216, which would
drastically alter the pressure pattern if it should come to pass
(think anticyclone over the UK), but not many ensemble members
showed this, and it was absent from the GFS, which was
progressive. Therefore I think it is a low probablility - but
not zero. I hope the disruption doesn't happen!!

--
Freddie
Pontesbury
Shropshire
102m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
http://twitter.com/PontesburyWx for hourly reports


----Android NewsGroup Reader----
http://usenet.sinaapp.com/

Good luck Freddie. For me, that ECM chart would preclude a forecast. My criteria are not met.

Comments Freddie?


I haven't forgotten - I'm away from my desktop, and I'm not going
to attempt to look at model charts on my phone! Suffice to say,
the upper trough disruption did happen, and the forecast went
somewhat awry in places!!
--
Freddie
Pontesbury
Shropshire
102m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
http://twitter.com/PontesburyWx for hourly reports


----Android NewsGroup Reader----
http://usenet.sinaapp.com/

Freddie Wrote in message:

Time to revisit!* Sorry about the delay - I?ve been on my holibobs.

No end in sight to the enhanced mobility we have seen this summer,
with a stronger than normal jet flowing at a more southerly than
usual latitude - probably influenced in part by the SST anomaly
pattern stretching across the Atlantic. The SST anomaly pattern
appears to be on the change from the western side of the
Atlantic, so maybe there will be a pattern shift in the
atmosphere come early September - one to watch!!
This pattern was still present on 17/08/2015, as it is now.

At T+240 on Monday 17 August it looks as if the NW-SE distribution
of weather in the UK will be persisting, with a general WSW?ly
flow across all parts. Pressure looks like being high in a belt
stretching from the Azores high into France, Germany and Poland,
with ridging towards another high over eastern Scandinavia. The
parent low pressure will persist in the Iceland area, with child
centres spawned on its southern side by upper air perturbations
running through the jet, and travelling ENE close to NW
Scotland. I think there will be one such low between N Scotland
and the Faeroes at T+240, with the polar front trailing back
SW?wards over NW Scotland and Northern Ireland. PM air will
follow this front across the country, replacing the warmer TM or
rPM air that is likely to cover most of the UK at
T+240.
Owing to a marked trough disruption on 15/16 August, the
distribution of weather was markedly different to that I was
expecting.* A col covered the UK, with high pressure to the
north-east and south-west, and low pressure to WNW and ESE.* Flow
and the distribution of warm/cool air over the UK was
indeterminate.* There was a decaying occluded front over Ireland,
and an active warm front was approaching Eastern Scotland and
England from the east towards the end of the day - associated
with the low to the ESE of the UK.
*

In terms of weather: Scotland and Northern Ireland - rain at first
followed by showers, probably very little traversing to E
Scotland.. Cool and breezy. NE and NW England and NW Wales -
cloudy with rain spreading from the west, probably very little
east of the Pennines. Average temperatures. Rest of Wales,
Central and SW England - bright/sunny at first, cloudy later,
with maybe some light rain or drizzle in the west of Wales. Warm
at first. CS and SE England, East Anglia - dry and sunny,
warm.
This was way out, with many places the length and breadth of the
UK around 20C and dry with some sunshine.* There was some cloudy
weather with occasional rain over Ireland associated with the
decaying occlusion.* The north eastern extremes of the UK were
cooler, and became wet late in the day.

Main uncertainities: position of the front for one. Also - ECMWF
Operational hints at a trough disruption at T+216, which would
drastically alter the pressure pattern if it should come to pass
(think anticyclone over the UK), but not many ensemble members
showed this, and it was absent from the GFS, which was
progressive. Therefore I think it is a low probablility - but
not zero. I hope the disruption doesn't happen!!
The low probability trough disruption did occur - although earlier
than predicted by the models, and more marked.* That?s the nature
of trough disruptions - difficult for the models to handle due to
the (relatively) small scale of features that instantiate them,
and guaranteed to blow a forecast out of the water!
*
Time to have another go!

--
Freddie
Pontesbury
Shropshire
102m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
http://twitter.com/PontesburyWx for hourly reports


----Android NewsGroup Reader----
http://usenet.sinaapp.com/