On Sunday, August 16, 2015 at 9:22:53 PM UTC+1, wrote:
On Sunday, August 16, 2015 at 8:52:29 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, August 16, 2015 at 8:45:10 PM UTC+1, wrote:
On Sunday, August 16, 2015 at 7:13:53 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, August 16, 2015 at 5:36:11 PM UTC+1, wrote:
On Saturday, August 15, 2015 at 7:05:29 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
If only t'were January!

**At T240, on 25th August, a large and persistent high pressure system will be located over Scandinavia/Baltic sea. It will lead to one of several types of weather for the UK, depending upon its exact location and orientation, but low pressures will be stalled in their passage across the UK from the west. If the stall occurs with the low centre over the UK, some areas may be experiencing heavy rain and flooding may well result in some areas. If the high is a little further north, dry easterlies will be affecting the UK and if the lows stall further to the west, with the high pressure itself a little further west, warm air from the south will be drawn across the UK.**

Thus, very difficult to predict the UK's exact weather, as a small change in location of the centre of the high could lead to a large change in our weather type, but high pressure will have become firmly established to our NE by the 25th.

This is a forecast for Scandinavia though,

True. It's s forecast that high pressure will become established to our NE in 10 days. Wish I could be specific about the UK weather, but it's not possible.

Col

So can I assume that if this forecast verifies (for Scandinavia) it won't count towards your success rate for UK forecasts?

Col

Do I have a success rate for UK forecasts?

80% as you so often claim.

Col

News to me. Still; you learn something every day.

On Sunday, August 16, 2015 at 9:31:11 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, August 16, 2015 at 9:22:53 PM UTC+1, wrote:
On Sunday, August 16, 2015 at 8:52:29 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, August 16, 2015 at 8:45:10 PM UTC+1, wrote:
On Sunday, August 16, 2015 at 7:13:53 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, August 16, 2015 at 5:36:11 PM UTC+1, wrote:
On Saturday, August 15, 2015 at 7:05:29 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
If only t'were January!

**At T240, on 25th August, a large and persistent high pressure system will be located over Scandinavia/Baltic sea. It will lead to one of several types of weather for the UK, depending upon its exact location and orientation, but low pressures will be stalled in their passage across the UK from the west. If the stall occurs with the low centre over the UK, some areas may be experiencing heavy rain and flooding may well result in some areas. If the high is a little further north, dry easterlies will be affecting the UK and if the lows stall further to the west, with the high pressure itself a little further west, warm air from the south will be drawn across the UK.**

Thus, very difficult to predict the UK's exact weather, as a small change in location of the centre of the high could lead to a large change in our weather type, but high pressure will have become firmly established to our NE by the 25th.

This is a forecast for Scandinavia though,

True. It's s forecast that high pressure will become established to our NE in 10 days. Wish I could be specific about the UK weather, but it's not possible.

Col

So can I assume that if this forecast verifies (for Scandinavia) it won't count towards your success rate for UK forecasts?

Col

Do I have a success rate for UK forecasts?

80% as you so often claim.

Col

News to me. Still; you learn something every day.

Eh?
The 80% success rate for your forecasts (when you feel confident enough to forecast that is) that you have been banging on about for at least the last 5 years.

Col

On Monday, August 17, 2015 at 5:51:48 PM UTC+1, wrote:
On Sunday, August 16, 2015 at 9:31:11 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, August 16, 2015 at 9:22:53 PM UTC+1, wrote:
On Sunday, August 16, 2015 at 8:52:29 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, August 16, 2015 at 8:45:10 PM UTC+1, wrote:
On Sunday, August 16, 2015 at 7:13:53 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, August 16, 2015 at 5:36:11 PM UTC+1, wrote:
On Saturday, August 15, 2015 at 7:05:29 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
If only t'were January!

**At T240, on 25th August, a large and persistent high pressure system will be located over Scandinavia/Baltic sea. It will lead to one of several types of weather for the UK, depending upon its exact location and orientation, but low pressures will be stalled in their passage across the UK from the west. If the stall occurs with the low centre over the UK, some areas may be experiencing heavy rain and flooding may well result in some areas. If the high is a little further north, dry easterlies will be affecting the UK and if the lows stall further to the west, with the high pressure itself a little further west, warm air from the south will be drawn across the UK.**

Thus, very difficult to predict the UK's exact weather, as a small change in location of the centre of the high could lead to a large change in our weather type, but high pressure will have become firmly established to our NE by the 25th.

This is a forecast for Scandinavia though,

True. It's s forecast that high pressure will become established to our NE in 10 days. Wish I could be specific about the UK weather, but it's not possible.

Col

So can I assume that if this forecast verifies (for Scandinavia) it won't count towards your success rate for UK forecasts?

Col

Do I have a success rate for UK forecasts?

80% as you so often claim.

Col

News to me. Still; you learn something every day.

Eh?
The 80% success rate for your forecasts (when you feel confident enough to forecast that is) that you have been banging on about for at least the last 5 years.

Col

Nothing wrong with that, Col.

On Monday, August 17, 2015 at 8:09:29 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
On Monday, August 17, 2015 at 5:51:48 PM UTC+1, wrote:
On Sunday, August 16, 2015 at 9:31:11 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, August 16, 2015 at 9:22:53 PM UTC+1, wrote:
On Sunday, August 16, 2015 at 8:52:29 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, August 16, 2015 at 8:45:10 PM UTC+1, wrote:
On Sunday, August 16, 2015 at 7:13:53 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, August 16, 2015 at 5:36:11 PM UTC+1, wrote:
On Saturday, August 15, 2015 at 7:05:29 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
If only t'were January!

**At T240, on 25th August, a large and persistent high pressure system will be located over Scandinavia/Baltic sea. It will lead to one of several types of weather for the UK, depending upon its exact location and orientation, but low pressures will be stalled in their passage across the UK from the west. If the stall occurs with the low centre over the UK, some areas may be experiencing heavy rain and flooding may well result in some areas. If the high is a little further north, dry easterlies will be affecting the UK and if the lows stall further to the west, with the high pressure itself a little further west, warm air from the south will be drawn across the UK.**

Thus, very difficult to predict the UK's exact weather, as a small change in location of the centre of the high could lead to a large change in our weather type, but high pressure will have become firmly established to our NE by the 25th.

This is a forecast for Scandinavia though,

True. It's s forecast that high pressure will become established to our NE in 10 days. Wish I could be specific about the UK weather, but it's not possible.

Col

So can I assume that if this forecast verifies (for Scandinavia) it won't count towards your success rate for UK forecasts?

Col

Do I have a success rate for UK forecasts?

80% as you so often claim.

Col

News to me. Still; you learn something every day.

Eh?
The 80% success rate for your forecasts (when you feel confident enough to forecast that is) that you have been banging on about for at least the last 5 years.

Col

Nothing wrong with that, Col.

Nothing wrong with what?
Mentioning your 80% success rate when in your previous post you denied it's very existence?

I will go along with this silliness only so far you know

Col

On Monday, August 17, 2015 at 9:30:04 PM UTC+1, wrote:
On Monday, August 17, 2015 at 8:09:29 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
On Monday, August 17, 2015 at 5:51:48 PM UTC+1, wrote:
On Sunday, August 16, 2015 at 9:31:11 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, August 16, 2015 at 9:22:53 PM UTC+1, wrote:
On Sunday, August 16, 2015 at 8:52:29 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, August 16, 2015 at 8:45:10 PM UTC+1, wrote:
On Sunday, August 16, 2015 at 7:13:53 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, August 16, 2015 at 5:36:11 PM UTC+1, wrote:
On Saturday, August 15, 2015 at 7:05:29 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
If only t'were January!

**At T240, on 25th August, a large and persistent high pressure system will be located over Scandinavia/Baltic sea. It will lead to one of several types of weather for the UK, depending upon its exact location and orientation, but low pressures will be stalled in their passage across the UK from the west. If the stall occurs with the low centre over the UK, some areas may be experiencing heavy rain and flooding may well result in some areas. If the high is a little further north, dry easterlies will be affecting the UK and if the lows stall further to the west, with the high pressure itself a little further west, warm air from the south will be drawn across the UK.**

Thus, very difficult to predict the UK's exact weather, as a small change in location of the centre of the high could lead to a large change in our weather type, but high pressure will have become firmly established to our NE by the 25th.

This is a forecast for Scandinavia though,

True. It's s forecast that high pressure will become established to our NE in 10 days. Wish I could be specific about the UK weather, but it's not possible.

Col

So can I assume that if this forecast verifies (for Scandinavia) it won't count towards your success rate for UK forecasts?

Col

Do I have a success rate for UK forecasts?

80% as you so often claim.

Col

News to me. Still; you learn something every day.

Eh?
The 80% success rate for your forecasts (when you feel confident enough to forecast that is) that you have been banging on about for at least the last 5 years.

Col

Nothing wrong with that, Col.

Nothing wrong with what?
Mentioning your 80% success rate when in your previous post you denied it's very existence?

I will go along with this silliness only so far you know

Col

Errrrr, no. Scroll back and see what was actually said. This is silliness. You've got the wrong end of the stick by misreading. *))

On Saturday, August 15, 2015 at 7:05:29 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
If only t'were January!

**At T240, on 25th August, a large and persistent high pressure system will be located over Scandinavia/Baltic sea. It will lead to one of several types of weather for the UK, depending upon its exact location and orientation, but low pressures will be stalled in their passage across the UK from the west. If the stall occurs with the low centre over the UK, some areas may be experiencing heavy rain and flooding may well result in some areas. If the high is a little further north, dry easterlies will be affecting the UK and if the lows stall further to the west, with the high pressure itself a little further west, warm air from the south will be drawn across the UK.**

Thus, very difficult to predict the UK's exact weather, as a small change in location of the centre of the high could lead to a large change in our weather type, but high pressure will have become firmly established to our NE by the 25th.

Persistent swine, this blocking high, isn't it? All models, including GEM, which has shown a more progressive situation over the last few days, are showing a Scandinavian high still present on the 28th. If this agreement is still there tonight, I'll be forecasting an extension to my forecast for the 25th. (I've always given a gap of three days between forecasts of a similar set-up).

On Tuesday, August 18, 2015 at 9:40:37 AM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
On Monday, August 17, 2015 at 9:30:04 PM UTC+1, wrote:
On Monday, August 17, 2015 at 8:09:29 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
On Monday, August 17, 2015 at 5:51:48 PM UTC+1, wrote:
On Sunday, August 16, 2015 at 9:31:11 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, August 16, 2015 at 9:22:53 PM UTC+1, wrote:
On Sunday, August 16, 2015 at 8:52:29 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, August 16, 2015 at 8:45:10 PM UTC+1, wrote:
On Sunday, August 16, 2015 at 7:13:53 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, August 16, 2015 at 5:36:11 PM UTC+1, wrote:
On Saturday, August 15, 2015 at 7:05:29 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
If only t'were January!

**At T240, on 25th August, a large and persistent high pressure system will be located over Scandinavia/Baltic sea. It will lead to one of several types of weather for the UK, depending upon its exact location and orientation, but low pressures will be stalled in their passage across the UK from the west. If the stall occurs with the low centre over the UK, some areas may be experiencing heavy rain and flooding may well result in some areas. If the high is a little further north, dry easterlies will be affecting the UK and if the lows stall further to the west, with the high pressure itself a little further west, warm air from the south will be drawn across the UK.**

Thus, very difficult to predict the UK's exact weather, as a small change in location of the centre of the high could lead to a large change in our weather type, but high pressure will have become firmly established to our NE by the 25th.

This is a forecast for Scandinavia though,

True. It's s forecast that high pressure will become established to our NE in 10 days. Wish I could be specific about the UK weather, but it's not possible.

Col

So can I assume that if this forecast verifies (for Scandinavia) it won't count towards your success rate for UK forecasts?

Col

Do I have a success rate for UK forecasts?

80% as you so often claim.

Col

News to me. Still; you learn something every day.

Eh?
The 80% success rate for your forecasts (when you feel confident enough to forecast that is) that you have been banging on about for at least the last 5 years.

Col

Nothing wrong with that, Col.

Nothing wrong with what?
Mentioning your 80% success rate when in your previous post you denied it's very existence?

I will go along with this silliness only so far you know

Col

Errrrr, no. Scroll back and see what was actually said. This is silliness.. You've got the wrong end of the stick by misreading. *))

Yeah, whatever.
Can't be bothered arguing on this one anymore.

Congratulations, you've won!

Col

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...

Errrrr, no. Scroll back and see what was actually said. This is silliness.
You've got the wrong end of the stick by misreading. *))

It does rather look like the Dawlish forecasts should be labelled Humpty
Dumpty forecasts. As Lewis Carroll wrote:

'When I use a word like forecast' Humpty Dumpty said in rather a scornful
tone, ‘it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less.’

On Tuesday, August 18, 2015 at 5:50:50 PM UTC+1, wrote:
On Tuesday, August 18, 2015 at 9:40:37 AM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
On Monday, August 17, 2015 at 9:30:04 PM UTC+1, wrote:
On Monday, August 17, 2015 at 8:09:29 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
On Monday, August 17, 2015 at 5:51:48 PM UTC+1, wrote:
On Sunday, August 16, 2015 at 9:31:11 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, August 16, 2015 at 9:22:53 PM UTC+1, wrote:
On Sunday, August 16, 2015 at 8:52:29 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, August 16, 2015 at 8:45:10 PM UTC+1, wrote:
On Sunday, August 16, 2015 at 7:13:53 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, August 16, 2015 at 5:36:11 PM UTC+1, wrote:
On Saturday, August 15, 2015 at 7:05:29 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
If only t'were January!

**At T240, on 25th August, a large and persistent high pressure system will be located over Scandinavia/Baltic sea. It will lead to one of several types of weather for the UK, depending upon its exact location and orientation, but low pressures will be stalled in their passage across the UK from the west. If the stall occurs with the low centre over the UK, some areas may be experiencing heavy rain and flooding may well result in some areas. If the high is a little further north, dry easterlies will be affecting the UK and if the lows stall further to the west, with the high pressure itself a little further west, warm air from the south will be drawn across the UK.**

Thus, very difficult to predict the UK's exact weather, as a small change in location of the centre of the high could lead to a large change in our weather type, but high pressure will have become firmly established to our NE by the 25th.

This is a forecast for Scandinavia though,

True. It's s forecast that high pressure will become established to our NE in 10 days. Wish I could be specific about the UK weather, but it's not possible.

Col

So can I assume that if this forecast verifies (for Scandinavia) it won't count towards your success rate for UK forecasts?

Col

Do I have a success rate for UK forecasts?

80% as you so often claim.

Col

News to me. Still; you learn something every day.

Eh?
The 80% success rate for your forecasts (when you feel confident enough to forecast that is) that you have been banging on about for at least the last 5 years.

Col

Nothing wrong with that, Col.

Nothing wrong with what?
Mentioning your 80% success rate when in your previous post you denied it's very existence?

I will go along with this silliness only so far you know

Col

Errrrr, no. Scroll back and see what was actually said. This is silliness. You've got the wrong end of the stick by misreading. *))

Yeah, whatever.
Can't be bothered arguing on this one anymore.

Congratulations, you've won!

Col

Whatever, really. Be good if you figured out why.

On Tuesday, August 18, 2015 at 6:23:53 PM UTC+1, JohnD wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message
...

Errrrr, no. Scroll back and see what was actually said. This is silliness.
You've got the wrong end of the stick by misreading. *))

It does rather look like the Dawlish forecasts should be labelled Humpty
Dumpty forecasts. As Lewis Carroll wrote:

'When I use a word like forecast' Humpty Dumpty said in rather a scornful
tone, 'it means just what I choose it to mean -- neither more nor less.'

There will be high pressure over Scandinavia on the 25th August. Your problem with that is exactly where?