If only t'were January!

**At T240, on 25th August, a large and persistent high pressure system will be located over Scandinavia/Baltic sea. It will lead to one of several types of weather for the UK, depending upon its exact location and orientation, but low pressures will be stalled in their passage across the UK from the west. If the stall occurs with the low centre over the UK, some areas may be experiencing heavy rain and flooding may well result in some areas. If the high is a little further north, dry easterlies will be affecting the UK and if the lows stall further to the west, with the high pressure itself a little further west, warm air from the south will be drawn across the UK.**

Thus, very difficult to predict the UK's exact weather, as a small change in location of the centre of the high could lead to a large change in our weather type, but high pressure will have become firmly established to our NE by the 25th.

On 15/08/2015 19:05, Dawlish wrote:
If only t'were January!

**At T240, on 25th August, a large and persistent high pressure system will be located over Scandinavia/Baltic sea. It will lead to one of several types of weather for the UK, depending upon its exact location and orientation, but low pressures will be stalled in their passage across the UK from the west. If the stall occurs with the low centre over the UK, some areas may be experiencing heavy rain and flooding may well result in some areas. If the high is a little further north, dry easterlies will be affecting the UK and if the lows stall further to the west, with the high pressure itself a little further west, warm air from the south will be drawn across the UK.**

Thus, very difficult to predict the UK's exact weather, as a small change in location of the centre of the high could lead to a large change in our weather type, but high pressure will have become firmly established to our NE by the 25th.

--------------------------------------------------------
Thanks. Hopefully it is option 3 as my daughter's family are on holiday
in Weymouth area!
Dave

On Saturday, August 15, 2015 at 11:44:45 PM UTC+1, Dave Cornwell wrote:
On 15/08/2015 19:05, Dawlish wrote:
If only t'were January!

**At T240, on 25th August, a large and persistent high pressure system will be located over Scandinavia/Baltic sea. It will lead to one of several types of weather for the UK, depending upon its exact location and orientation, but low pressures will be stalled in their passage across the UK from the west. If the stall occurs with the low centre over the UK, some areas may be experiencing heavy rain and flooding may well result in some areas. If the high is a little further north, dry easterlies will be affecting the UK and if the lows stall further to the west, with the high pressure itself a little further west, warm air from the south will be drawn across the UK.**

Thus, very difficult to predict the UK's exact weather, as a small change in location of the centre of the high could lead to a large change in our weather type, but high pressure will have become firmly established to our NE by the 25th.

--------------------------------------------------------
Thanks. Hopefully it is option 3 as my daughter's family are on holiday
in Weymouth area!
Dave

Wish I could be more specific for the UK, but with this set-up, I don;t feel it is possible. The Scandinavian high looks a persistent blighter though, doesn't it? A 10-day cruise round the fjords, starting tomorrow, might be a better option, Dave. *))

On 16/08/2015 07:33, Dawlish wrote:
On Saturday, August 15, 2015 at 11:44:45 PM UTC+1, Dave Cornwell wrote:
On 15/08/2015 19:05, Dawlish wrote:
If only t'were January!

**At T240, on 25th August, a large and persistent high pressure system will be located over Scandinavia/Baltic sea. It will lead to one of several types of weather for the UK, depending upon its exact location and orientation, but low pressures will be stalled in their passage across the UK from the west. If the stall occurs with the low centre over the UK, some areas may be experiencing heavy rain and flooding may well result in some areas. If the high is a little further north, dry easterlies will be affecting the UK and if the lows stall further to the west, with the high pressure itself a little further west, warm air from the south will be drawn across the UK.**

Thus, very difficult to predict the UK's exact weather, as a small change in location of the centre of the high could lead to a large change in our weather type, but high pressure will have become firmly established to our NE by the 25th.

--------------------------------------------------------
Thanks. Hopefully it is option 3 as my daughter's family are on holiday
in Weymouth area!
Dave

Wish I could be more specific for the UK, but with this set-up, I don;t feel it is possible. The Scandinavian high looks a persistent blighter though, doesn't it? A 10-day cruise round the fjords, starting tomorrow, might be a better option, Dave. *))

--------------------------------------------------
Having done that (well not 10 days, 4 days work!) and it was 27C in
Trondheim I can guarantee that would be a good option!

On Sunday, August 16, 2015 at 12:47:59 PM UTC+1, Dave Cornwell wrote:
On 16/08/2015 07:33, Dawlish wrote:
On Saturday, August 15, 2015 at 11:44:45 PM UTC+1, Dave Cornwell wrote:
On 15/08/2015 19:05, Dawlish wrote:
If only t'were January!

**At T240, on 25th August, a large and persistent high pressure system will be located over Scandinavia/Baltic sea. It will lead to one of several types of weather for the UK, depending upon its exact location and orientation, but low pressures will be stalled in their passage across the UK from the west. If the stall occurs with the low centre over the UK, some areas may be experiencing heavy rain and flooding may well result in some areas.. If the high is a little further north, dry easterlies will be affecting the UK and if the lows stall further to the west, with the high pressure itself a little further west, warm air from the south will be drawn across the UK.**

Thus, very difficult to predict the UK's exact weather, as a small change in location of the centre of the high could lead to a large change in our weather type, but high pressure will have become firmly established to our NE by the 25th.

--------------------------------------------------------
Thanks. Hopefully it is option 3 as my daughter's family are on holiday
in Weymouth area!
Dave

Wish I could be more specific for the UK, but with this set-up, I don;t feel it is possible. The Scandinavian high looks a persistent blighter though, doesn't it? A 10-day cruise round the fjords, starting tomorrow, might be a better option, Dave. *))

--------------------------------------------------
Having done that (well not 10 days, 4 days work!) and it was 27C in
Trondheim I can guarantee that would be a good option!

Something I'd like to do!

On Saturday, August 15, 2015 at 7:05:29 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
If only t'were January!

**At T240, on 25th August, a large and persistent high pressure system will be located over Scandinavia/Baltic sea. It will lead to one of several types of weather for the UK, depending upon its exact location and orientation, but low pressures will be stalled in their passage across the UK from the west. If the stall occurs with the low centre over the UK, some areas may be experiencing heavy rain and flooding may well result in some areas. If the high is a little further north, dry easterlies will be affecting the UK and if the lows stall further to the west, with the high pressure itself a little further west, warm air from the south will be drawn across the UK.**

Thus, very difficult to predict the UK's exact weather, as a small change in location of the centre of the high could lead to a large change in our weather type, but high pressure will have become firmly established to our NE by the 25th.

This is a forecast for Scandinavia though, I don't think it really works as a forecast for the UK. You offer three distinct scenarios, heavy rain, dry easterlies and warm southerlies. Sorry, but you can't claim a correct forecast if either one of these materialises!

It's a bit like saying that there will be a strong Azores high which may or may not ridge towards the UK, giving warm & settled conditions on one hand but cooler NW winds with showers/rain at times on the other.

Col

On Sunday, August 16, 2015 at 5:36:11 PM UTC+1, wrote:
On Saturday, August 15, 2015 at 7:05:29 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
If only t'were January!

**At T240, on 25th August, a large and persistent high pressure system will be located over Scandinavia/Baltic sea. It will lead to one of several types of weather for the UK, depending upon its exact location and orientation, but low pressures will be stalled in their passage across the UK from the west. If the stall occurs with the low centre over the UK, some areas may be experiencing heavy rain and flooding may well result in some areas. If the high is a little further north, dry easterlies will be affecting the UK and if the lows stall further to the west, with the high pressure itself a little further west, warm air from the south will be drawn across the UK.**

Thus, very difficult to predict the UK's exact weather, as a small change in location of the centre of the high could lead to a large change in our weather type, but high pressure will have become firmly established to our NE by the 25th.

This is a forecast for Scandinavia though,

True. It's s forecast that high pressure will become established to our NE in 10 days. Wish I could be specific about the UK weather, but it's not possible.

Col

On Sunday, August 16, 2015 at 7:13:53 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, August 16, 2015 at 5:36:11 PM UTC+1, wrote:
On Saturday, August 15, 2015 at 7:05:29 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
If only t'were January!

**At T240, on 25th August, a large and persistent high pressure system will be located over Scandinavia/Baltic sea. It will lead to one of several types of weather for the UK, depending upon its exact location and orientation, but low pressures will be stalled in their passage across the UK from the west. If the stall occurs with the low centre over the UK, some areas may be experiencing heavy rain and flooding may well result in some areas.. If the high is a little further north, dry easterlies will be affecting the UK and if the lows stall further to the west, with the high pressure itself a little further west, warm air from the south will be drawn across the UK.**

Thus, very difficult to predict the UK's exact weather, as a small change in location of the centre of the high could lead to a large change in our weather type, but high pressure will have become firmly established to our NE by the 25th.

This is a forecast for Scandinavia though,

True. It's s forecast that high pressure will become established to our NE in 10 days. Wish I could be specific about the UK weather, but it's not possible.

Col

So can I assume that if this forecast verifies (for Scandinavia) it won't count towards your success rate for UK forecasts?

Col

On Sunday, August 16, 2015 at 8:45:10 PM UTC+1, wrote:
On Sunday, August 16, 2015 at 7:13:53 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, August 16, 2015 at 5:36:11 PM UTC+1, wrote:
On Saturday, August 15, 2015 at 7:05:29 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
If only t'were January!

**At T240, on 25th August, a large and persistent high pressure system will be located over Scandinavia/Baltic sea. It will lead to one of several types of weather for the UK, depending upon its exact location and orientation, but low pressures will be stalled in their passage across the UK from the west. If the stall occurs with the low centre over the UK, some areas may be experiencing heavy rain and flooding may well result in some areas. If the high is a little further north, dry easterlies will be affecting the UK and if the lows stall further to the west, with the high pressure itself a little further west, warm air from the south will be drawn across the UK.**

Thus, very difficult to predict the UK's exact weather, as a small change in location of the centre of the high could lead to a large change in our weather type, but high pressure will have become firmly established to our NE by the 25th.

This is a forecast for Scandinavia though,

True. It's s forecast that high pressure will become established to our NE in 10 days. Wish I could be specific about the UK weather, but it's not possible.

Col

So can I assume that if this forecast verifies (for Scandinavia) it won't count towards your success rate for UK forecasts?

Col

Do I have a success rate for UK forecasts?

On Sunday, August 16, 2015 at 8:52:29 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, August 16, 2015 at 8:45:10 PM UTC+1, wrote:
On Sunday, August 16, 2015 at 7:13:53 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, August 16, 2015 at 5:36:11 PM UTC+1, wrote:
On Saturday, August 15, 2015 at 7:05:29 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
If only t'were January!

**At T240, on 25th August, a large and persistent high pressure system will be located over Scandinavia/Baltic sea. It will lead to one of several types of weather for the UK, depending upon its exact location and orientation, but low pressures will be stalled in their passage across the UK from the west. If the stall occurs with the low centre over the UK, some areas may be experiencing heavy rain and flooding may well result in some areas. If the high is a little further north, dry easterlies will be affecting the UK and if the lows stall further to the west, with the high pressure itself a little further west, warm air from the south will be drawn across the UK.**

Thus, very difficult to predict the UK's exact weather, as a small change in location of the centre of the high could lead to a large change in our weather type, but high pressure will have become firmly established to our NE by the 25th.

This is a forecast for Scandinavia though,

True. It's s forecast that high pressure will become established to our NE in 10 days. Wish I could be specific about the UK weather, but it's not possible.

Col

So can I assume that if this forecast verifies (for Scandinavia) it won't count towards your success rate for UK forecasts?

Col

Do I have a success rate for UK forecasts?

80% as you so often claim.

Col