Interesting 5-day forecast for Hurricane Kate.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics...F/041458W5.gif

I was just about to post this meself.

Watch the press get a hold of this!

Rob Overfield
Hull

Brendan DJ Murphy wrote in message
...
Interesting 5-day forecast for Hurricane Kate.


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics...F/041458W5.gif

"Rob Overfield" wrote in message
...
I was just about to post this meself.

Watch the press get a hold of this!

A wonder if a woman will phone the BBC to say there's a hurricane
on the way.........

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk

Indeed, a proportion of today's Countryfile forecast was spent reflecting on
September and only went as far ahead as Wednesday, with the hurricane not
getting a mention. Yes, granted there is some uncertainty from Wednesday
onwards, but some measure of up front honesty would be welcomed I guess.

--
================================================== ======================
Steve Graham
Rossendale
Lancs
950' AMSL
================================================== ======================

"Col" wrote in message
...

"Rob Overfield" wrote in message
...
I was just about to post this meself.

Watch the press get a hold of this!

A wonder if a woman will phone the BBC to say there's a hurricane
on the way.........

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk




---
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"Steve Graham" wrote in message
...
Indeed, a proportion of today's Countryfile forecast was spent reflecting on
September and only went as far ahead as Wednesday, with the hurricane not
getting a mention. Yes, granted there is some uncertainty from Wednesday
onwards, but some measure of up front honesty would be welcomed I guess.


Which made rather a mockery of the term 'weather for the week ahead'.
It just stopped on Wednesday as if they expected there not to be a
Thursday or a Friday next week.

They can talk about 'probabilities' and 'uncertainty' can't they?
I would have thought that the audience for the CF forecast is
relitively sophisticated as regards understanding the weather
when compared to those who watch the post-news broadcasts.

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk

On Sun, 5 Oct 2003 13:25:49 +0100, "Col"
wrote:

Which made rather a mockery of the term 'weather for the week ahead'.
It just stopped on Wednesday as if they expected there not to be a
Thursday or a Friday next week.

They can talk about 'probabilities' and 'uncertainty' can't they?
I would have thought that the audience for the CF forecast is
relitively sophisticated...

It looks to me like "Kate" is the problem, they are scared of the
"Fish" effect.

Kate is still meandering but its remnants do seem set to be in the
vicinity of the UK by Thursday. Some model scenarios have it
contributing to a 960MB depression off Northern Scotland, with some
serious weather up North. Others don't have it anywhere near the UK
until Saturday and then, filling.

The link posted by Elysium Fossa has it over Cornwall on Friday, with
gusts to 55 Knots and possibly some serious problems in the South,
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html . That forecast is
claimed to be from the NHC but it does NOT tie up with the NHC's own
forecasts and discussions at 10GMT today, they have it at 60 deg North
on Friday:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh.../050834.shtml?

I guess the MetO/BBC are being cautious about crying "wolf" at this
stage, knowing what idiots the the press can be with ex-hurricane
stories. I don't blame them BUT as you say, they should certainly have
said "later in the week is highly uncertain.


--
Dave

The original Link that I posted has now been updated.
The latest Noaa forecast is putting it much further north.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics...F/041458W5.gif


Brendan

The BBC cut the forecast short during transmission, apparently

In uk.sci.weather on Sun, 5 Oct 2003 at 13:00:32, Steve Graham wrote :

Indeed, a proportion of today's Countryfile forecast was spent reflecting on
September and only went as far ahead as Wednesday, with the hurricane not
getting a mention. Yes, granted there is some uncertainty from Wednesday
onwards, but some measure of up front honesty would be welcomed I guess.

I think they've had their fingers burnt on MRF's so often recently,
they're reluctant to say anything at all.
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham, England

In uk.sci.weather on Sun, 5 Oct 2003 at 14:31:42, Dave Ludlow wrote :

It looks to me like "Kate" is the problem, they are scared of the
"Fish" effect.

Kate is still meandering but its remnants do seem set to be in the
vicinity of the UK by Thursday. Some model scenarios have it
contributing to a 960MB depression off Northern Scotland, with some
serious weather up North. Others don't have it anywhere near the UK
until Saturday and then, filling.

We need it here, depositing a couple of inches of rain!
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham, England