Hurricane Joaquin is now category 3 and is causing the NHC big problems as there are big diffences from all the available models on what track it will take and if (and when) it'll make landfall on the eastern seaboard of the United States.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh...l/011504.shtml

On 01/10/2015 18:54, xmetman wrote:

Hurricane Joaquin is now category 3 and is causing the NHC big problems as there are big diffences from all the available models on what track it will take and if (and when) it'll make landfall on the eastern seaboard of the United States.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh...l/011504.shtml


As its primary target seems to be the big apple, I'm surprised I've not
heard anything on UK news.
I've been aware of it from its TS days. It seems it is now making its
presence into the model projections for our area, the period 9 to 11
october for our next period of spring tides, already modelled as an
extended and deep depression for the north norh Atlantic.

On Thu, 1 Oct 2015 10:54:25 -0700 (PDT)
xmetman wrote:


Hurricane Joaquin is now category 3 and is causing the NHC big
problems as there are big diffences from all the available models on
what track it will take and if (and when) it'll make landfall on the
eastern seaboard of the United States.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh...l/011504.shtml

And now cat 4.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh...l/012054.shtml
Other models are tending towards ECMWF solution.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer]
http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
I wear the cheese. It does not wear me.
Posted with Claws: http://www.claws-mail.org/

On 01/10/2015 22:25, Graham P Davis wrote:
On Thu, 1 Oct 2015 10:54:25 -0700 (PDT)
xmetman wrote:


Hurricane Joaquin is now category 3 and is causing the NHC big
problems as there are big diffences from all the available models on
what track it will take and if (and when) it'll make landfall on the
eastern seaboard of the United States.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh...l/011504.shtml

And now cat 4.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh...l/012054.shtml
Other models are tending towards ECMWF solution.


With the concensus track now more eastward component and not going over
land , does that mean a more energetic system will come into our area of
significance a week from now? and when does the NHC stop outputting
info, when it drops off the Fujita scale?

On Friday, 2 October 2015 08:50:13 UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
On 01/10/2015 22:25, Graham P Davis wrote:
On Thu, 1 Oct 2015 10:54:25 -0700 (PDT)
xmetman wrote:


Hurricane Joaquin is now category 3 and is causing the NHC big
problems as there are big diffences from all the available models on
what track it will take and if (and when) it'll make landfall on the
eastern seaboard of the United States.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh...l/011504.shtml

And now cat 4.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh...l/012054.shtml
Other models are tending towards ECMWF solution.


With the concensus track now more eastward component and not going over
land , does that mean a more energetic system will come into our area of
significance a week from now? and when does the NHC stop outputting
info, when it drops off the Fujita scale?

They stop when they transition to an extratropical cyclone.
Its the Saffir-Simpson scale for hurricanes.

On 02/10/2015 17:55, xmetman wrote:
On Friday, 2 October 2015 08:50:13 UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
On 01/10/2015 22:25, Graham P Davis wrote:
On Thu, 1 Oct 2015 10:54:25 -0700 (PDT)
xmetman wrote:


Hurricane Joaquin is now category 3 and is causing the NHC big
problems as there are big diffences from all the available models on
what track it will take and if (and when) it'll make landfall on the
eastern seaboard of the United States.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh...l/011504.shtml

And now cat 4.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh...l/012054.shtml
Other models are tending towards ECMWF solution.


With the concensus track now more eastward component and not going over
land , does that mean a more energetic system will come into our area of
significance a week from now? and when does the NHC stop outputting
info, when it drops off the Fujita scale?

They stop when they transition to an extratropical cyclone.
Its the Saffir-Simpson scale for hurricanes.


I see the NHC is now giving loss of hurricane status as late as
08oct 1200GMT at 48.5lat -26.0 long, which is not so far away. I wonder
how many hurricanes become ex, as close to the UK as that.

So much for the so called El Nino event preventing Atlantic/Gulf Hurricanes. (As promulgated early this year by the Met Organisations) So does that mean that the El Nino Hype was vastly over egged? Or was the story mis-reported?

Ben

On Saturday, 3 October 2015 18:07:48 UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:

I see the NHC is now giving loss of hurricane status as late as
08oct 1200GMT at 48.5lat -26.0 long, which is not so far away. I wonder
how many hurricanes become ex, as close to the UK as that.

There has been work done on this by Bob Hart by defining a "cyclone phase space" to understand when a system has lost its warm, symmetric core. A starting point he

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/

Richard

On Saturday, 3 October 2015 21:25:31 UTC+1, Crusader wrote:
So much for the so called El Nino event preventing Atlantic/Gulf Hurricanes. (As promulgated early this year by the Met Organisations) So does that mean that the El Nino Hype was vastly over egged? Or was the story mis-reported?

No it's broad-scale behaviour. El Nino is not the only control on the hurricane season.

Have a look at the first table he El Nino tends to decrease hurricane activity, but not down to zero...

http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/(Gh)/gu...hurr/enso.rxml

Richard

On Saturday, 3 October 2015 18:07:48 UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
On 02/10/2015 17:55, xmetman wrote:
On Friday, 2 October 2015 08:50:13 UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
On 01/10/2015 22:25, Graham P Davis wrote:
On Thu, 1 Oct 2015 10:54:25 -0700 (PDT)
xmetman wrote:


Hurricane Joaquin is now category 3 and is causing the NHC big
problems as there are big diffences from all the available models on
what track it will take and if (and when) it'll make landfall on the
eastern seaboard of the United States.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh...l/011504.shtml

And now cat 4.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh...l/012054.shtml
Other models are tending towards ECMWF solution.


With the concensus track now more eastward component and not going over
land , does that mean a more energetic system will come into our area of
significance a week from now? and when does the NHC stop outputting
info, when it drops off the Fujita scale?

They stop when they transition to an extratropical cyclone.
Its the Saffir-Simpson scale for hurricanes.


I see the NHC is now giving loss of hurricane status as late as
08oct 1200GMT at 48.5lat -26.0 long, which is not so far away. I wonder
how many hurricanes become ex, as close to the UK as that.

Have a look at a blog on the subject that I wrote a while ago:

https://xmetman.wordpress.com/2013/0...estern-europe/