I've been analysing the occurrence of frost using the data in the daily Central England Temperature [CET] series from 1878 to 2015. It may not come as a surprise to some to learn that the first frost is getting later and the last frost getting earlier. The first frost of the autumn/winter at the start of the series in 1878 occurred around the 29th of October, but 137 years later this has now slipped by over two weeks to the 13th of November. Likewise the last frost of any winter/spring has slipped back 11 days from the 16th of April in 1878 to the 5th of April in 2014.

Charts etc

https://xmetman.wordpress.com/2015/1...ntral-england/

On Sunday, 4 October 2015 18:07:30 UTC+1, xmetman wrote:
I've been analysing the occurrence of frost using the data in the daily Central England Temperature [CET] series from 1878 to 2015. It may not come as a surprise to some to learn that the first frost is getting later and the last frost getting earlier. The first frost of the autumn/winter at the start of the series in 1878 occurred around the 29th of October, but 137 years later this has now slipped by over two weeks to the 13th of November. Likewise the last frost of any winter/spring has slipped back 11 days from the 16th of April in 1878 to the 5th of April in 2014.

Charts etc

How is a frost defined in the daily CET? Is it that the average minimum at the 3 or 4 (correct?) stations used is below 0°C or does it need just one station to be below 0°C? My guess is that it is the former and this would mean that the first CET frost of autumn would be later than the first frost at any individual CET station. It would seem to be the explanation of why my own figures over 32 years show an earlier first frost and a later last one than CET. The dates are 21 April and 4 November, both with a wide range. The standard deviations are 14 and 18 days respectively.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, NE Surrey, 557 ft, 169 m.

On Sunday, October 4, 2015 at 6:07:30 PM UTC+1, xmetman wrote:
I've been analysing the occurrence of frost using the data in the daily Central England Temperature [CET] series from 1878 to 2015. It may not come as a surprise to some to learn that the first frost is getting later and the last frost getting earlier. The first frost of the autumn/winter at the start of the series in 1878 occurred around the 29th of October, but 137 years later this has now slipped by over two weeks to the 13th of November. Likewise the last frost of any winter/spring has slipped back 11 days from the 16th of April in 1878 to the 5th of April in 2014.

Charts etc

https://xmetman.wordpress.com/2015/1...ntral-england/

Probably reflected well in phenology. Many plants and animals are trying to adapt to our warming climate in the UK (and of course, elsewhere).

http://www.naturescalendar.org.uk/survey/

Why not get involved?

On Sunday, 4 October 2015 22:17:12 UTC+1, Tudor Hughes wrote:
On Sunday, 4 October 2015 18:07:30 UTC+1, xmetman wrote:
I've been analysing the occurrence of frost using the data in the daily Central England Temperature [CET] series from 1878 to 2015. It may not come as a surprise to some to learn that the first frost is getting later and the last frost getting earlier. The first frost of the autumn/winter at the start of the series in 1878 occurred around the 29th of October, but 137 years later this has now slipped by over two weeks to the 13th of November. Likewise the last frost of any winter/spring has slipped back 11 days from the 16th of April in 1878 to the 5th of April in 2014.

Charts etc

How is a frost defined in the daily CET? Is it that the average minimum at the 3 or 4 (correct?) stations used is below 0°C or does it need just one station to be below 0°C? My guess is that it is the former and this would mean that the first CET frost of autumn would be later than the first frost at any individual CET station. It would seem to be the explanation of why my own figures over 32 years show an earlier first frost and a later last one than CET. The dates are 21 April and 4 November, both with a wide range. The standard deviations are 14 and 18 days respectively.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, NE Surrey, 557 ft, 169 m.

Yes Tudor its a composite temperature from a number of sites - I forget how many - so the best way of looking at a CET frost is as a 'general' frost and not just a local one. I would prefer to use daily values from a 'real' station with a very long record, the problem is they are very few of them and places like Oxford charge for the data as do the Met Office, but I'll content myself with the CET and EWR series until one day someone see's what a nonsense it is to lock away the nations climate data.

"xmetman" wrote in message
...
On Sunday, 4 October 2015 22:17:12 UTC+1, Tudor Hughes wrote:
On Sunday, 4 October 2015 18:07:30 UTC+1, xmetman wrote:
I've been analysing the occurrence of frost using the data in the daily
Central England Temperature [CET] series from 1878 to 2015. It may not
come as a surprise to some to learn that the first frost is getting
later and the last frost getting earlier. The first frost of the
autumn/winter at the start of the series in 1878 occurred around the
29th of October, but 137 years later this has now slipped by over two
weeks to the 13th of November. Likewise the last frost of any
winter/spring has slipped back 11 days from the 16th of April in 1878 to
the 5th of April in 2014.

Charts etc

How is a frost defined in the daily CET? Is it that the average
minimum at the 3 or 4 (correct?) stations used is below 0°C or does it
need just one station to be below 0°C? My guess is that it is the former
and this would mean that the first CET frost of autumn would be later than
the first frost at any individual CET station. It would seem to be the
explanation of why my own figures over 32 years show an earlier first
frost and a later last one than CET. The dates are 21 April and 4
November, both with a wide range. The standard deviations are 14 and 18
days respectively.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, NE Surrey, 557 ft, 169 m.

Yes Tudor its a composite temperature from a number of sites - I forget how
many - so the best way of looking at a CET frost is as a 'general' frost and
not just a local one. I would prefer to use daily values from a 'real'
station with a very long record, the problem is they are very few of them
and places like Oxford charge for the data as do the Met Office, but I'll
content myself with the CET and EWR series until one day someone see's what
a nonsense it is to lock away the nations climate data.
======================

It is not locked away, but a small charge for processing is reasonable. Can
you get a death certificate for your ancestor free of charge, no, but it is
available. Same thing. You are also using CET data inappropriately as Tudor
has revealed.

Will
--
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

On 05/10/2015 07:32, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, October 4, 2015 at 6:07:30 PM UTC+1, xmetman wrote:
I've been analysing the occurrence of frost using the data in the daily Central England Temperature [CET] series from 1878 to 2015. It may not come as a surprise to some to learn that the first frost is getting later and the last frost getting earlier. The first frost of the autumn/winter at the start of the series in 1878 occurred around the 29th of October, but 137 years later this has now slipped by over two weeks to the 13th of November. Likewise the last frost of any winter/spring has slipped back 11 days from the 16th of April in 1878 to the 5th of April in 2014.

Charts etc

https://xmetman.wordpress.com/2015/1...ntral-england/

Probably reflected well in phenology. Many plants and animals are trying to adapt to our warming climate in the UK (and of course, elsewhere).

http://www.naturescalendar.org.uk/survey/

Why not get involved?

----------------------------------------------------------
I already am :-) That is why few bird watchers, gardeners, amateur
naturalists etc. are climate change deniers. They can see it right in
front of them with their own eyes!
Dave

On Monday, 5 October 2015 09:47:43 UTC+1, wrote:
"xmetman" wrote in message
...
On Sunday, 4 October 2015 22:17:12 UTC+1, Tudor Hughes wrote:
On Sunday, 4 October 2015 18:07:30 UTC+1, xmetman wrote:
I've been analysing the occurrence of frost using the data in the daily
Central England Temperature [CET] series from 1878 to 2015. It may not
come as a surprise to some to learn that the first frost is getting
later and the last frost getting earlier. The first frost of the
autumn/winter at the start of the series in 1878 occurred around the
29th of October, but 137 years later this has now slipped by over two
weeks to the 13th of November. Likewise the last frost of any
winter/spring has slipped back 11 days from the 16th of April in 1878 to
the 5th of April in 2014.

Charts etc

How is a frost defined in the daily CET? Is it that the average
minimum at the 3 or 4 (correct?) stations used is below 0°C or does it
need just one station to be below 0°C? My guess is that it is the former
and this would mean that the first CET frost of autumn would be later than
the first frost at any individual CET station. It would seem to be the
explanation of why my own figures over 32 years show an earlier first
frost and a later last one than CET. The dates are 21 April and 4
November, both with a wide range. The standard deviations are 14 and 18
days respectively.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, NE Surrey, 557 ft, 169 m.

Yes Tudor its a composite temperature from a number of sites - I forget how
many - so the best way of looking at a CET frost is as a 'general' frost and
not just a local one. I would prefer to use daily values from a 'real'
station with a very long record, the problem is they are very few of them
and places like Oxford charge for the data as do the Met Office, but I'll
content myself with the CET and EWR series until one day someone see's what
a nonsense it is to lock away the nations climate data.
======================

It is not locked away, but a small charge for processing is reasonable. Can
you get a death certificate for your ancestor free of charge, no, but it is
available. Same thing. You are also using CET data inappropriately as Tudor
has revealed.

Will
--
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

Did I upset you or was it something I said? I sometimes think you are just trying to goad me into a reaction.

Using 'CET data inappropriately' that's a good one - and guilty as charged.

I wouldn't mind paying a reasonable amount for climate data from the Met Office, but the last time I asked for daily rainfall data from just three sites in the south west from 1973-2014, I was asked to cough up (for 43923 data units) £4749.65+VAT. I say at those prices it is effectively LOCKED AWAY.

And comparing accessing climate data for the UK to a death certificate for someone is ridiculous.

I can see why Dawlish has no time for you and your arrogant attitude.

"xmetman" wrote in message
...
On Monday, 5 October 2015 09:47:43 UTC+1, wrote:
"xmetman" wrote in message
...
On Sunday, 4 October 2015 22:17:12 UTC+1, Tudor Hughes wrote:
On Sunday, 4 October 2015 18:07:30 UTC+1, xmetman wrote:
I've been analysing the occurrence of frost using the data in the
daily
Central England Temperature [CET] series from 1878 to 2015. It may not
come as a surprise to some to learn that the first frost is getting
later and the last frost getting earlier. The first frost of the
autumn/winter at the start of the series in 1878 occurred around the
29th of October, but 137 years later this has now slipped by over two
weeks to the 13th of November. Likewise the last frost of any
winter/spring has slipped back 11 days from the 16th of April in 1878
to
the 5th of April in 2014.

Charts etc

How is a frost defined in the daily CET? Is it that the average
minimum at the 3 or 4 (correct?) stations used is below 0°C or does it
need just one station to be below 0°C? My guess is that it is the
former
and this would mean that the first CET frost of autumn would be later
than
the first frost at any individual CET station. It would seem to be the
explanation of why my own figures over 32 years show an earlier first
frost and a later last one than CET. The dates are 21 April and 4
November, both with a wide range. The standard deviations are 14 and 18
days respectively.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, NE Surrey, 557 ft, 169 m.

Yes Tudor its a composite temperature from a number of sites - I forget
how
many - so the best way of looking at a CET frost is as a 'general' frost
and
not just a local one. I would prefer to use daily values from a 'real'
station with a very long record, the problem is they are very few of them
and places like Oxford charge for the data as do the Met Office, but I'll
content myself with the CET and EWR series until one day someone see's
what
a nonsense it is to lock away the nations climate data.
======================

It is not locked away, but a small charge for processing is reasonable.
Can
you get a death certificate for your ancestor free of charge, no, but it
is
available. Same thing. You are also using CET data inappropriately as
Tudor
has revealed.


Did I upset you or was it something I said? I sometimes think you are just
trying to goad me into a reaction.

Using 'CET data inappropriately' that's a good one - and guilty as charged.

I wouldn't mind paying a reasonable amount for climate data from the Met
Office, but the last time I asked for daily rainfall data from just three
sites in the south west from 1973-2014, I was asked to cough up (for 43923
data units) £4749.65+VAT. I say at those prices it is effectively LOCKED
AWAY.

And comparing accessing climate data for the UK to a death certificate for
someone is ridiculous.

I can see why Dawlish has no time for you and your arrogant attitude.
==========================

No it is not ridiculous, it is the same principle. People think that they
are entitled to lots of things in the UK when at the end of the day we are
entitled to nothing and some things we should pay for. I understand that you
*can* get climate data free of charge for *private* research purposes. Most
people require climate information to support legal cases, develop
applications that will make them money etc. In those cases the fees are
quite reasonable. You used to work at the MetO Bruce, can't you get the data
by a "back door", I know I can.

Will
--
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

Whenever I've asked the library have been very swift in replying with data for rainfall stations for my area - files that sometimes go back as far as 1959 - all free of charge.

My only observation is that it is a shame all of the data cannot be digitised but that would be a monumental task, funds for which I can't see being available any time soon

"Scott W" wrote in message
...
Whenever I've asked the library have been very swift in replying with data
for rainfall stations for my area - files that sometimes go back as far as
1959 - all free of charge.

My only observation is that it is a shame all of the data cannot be
digitised but that would be a monumental task, funds for which I can't see
being available any time soon

Exactly. Bruce has not been trying properly I reckon. Also for those living
in the SW a trip to the library itself is free (apart from travel costs) and
you can then browse all the data you need to your heart's content. British
Rainfall has been scanned in as .pdfs - a free service. Also Snow Surveys.

Will
--
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------