-------- Forwarded Message --------
Subject: GLOBAL COOLING: Decade long ice age predicted as sun 'hibernates'
Date: Thu, 5 Nov 2015 05:21:28 -0500
From: burfordTjustice
Organisation: At Her Service
Newsgroups:
24hoursupport.helpdesk,alt.politics.british,alt.po litics.scorched-earth,uk.politics.misc,uk.religion.islam


A team of European researchers have unveiled a scientific model showing
that the Earth is likely to experience a “mini ice age� from 2030 to
2040 as a result of decreased solar activity.

Their findings will infuriate environmental campaigners who argue by
2030 we could be facing increased sea levels and flooding due to glacial
melt at the poles.

However, at the National Astronomy Meeting in Wales, Northumbria
University professor Valentina Zharkova said fluctuations an 11-year
cycle of solar activity the sun goes through would be responsible for a
freeze, the like of which has not been experienced since the 1600s.

From 1645 to 1715 global temperatures dropped due to low solar activity
so much that the planet experienced a 70-year ice age known as Maunder
Minimum which saw the River Thames in London completely frozen.

The researchers have now developed a "double dynamo "model that can
better predict when the next freeze will be.

Based on current cycles, they predict solar activity dwindling for ten
years from 2030.

Professor Zharkova said two magnetic waves will cancel each other out in
about 2030, leading to a drop in sun spots and solar flares of about 60
per cent.

Sunspots are dark concentrations of magnetic field flux on the surface
that reduce surface temperature in that area, while solar flares are
burst of radiation and solar energy that fire out across the solar
system, but the Earth's atmosphere protects us from the otherwise
devastating effects.

She said: "In cycle 26, the two waves exactly mirror each other, peaking
at the same time but in opposite hemispheres of the Sun.

"We predict that this will lead to the properties of a ‘Maunder minimum.

It is 172 years since a scientist first spotted that the Sun’s activity
varies over a cycle lasting around 10 to 12 years.

“Over the cycle, the waves fluctuate between the Sun’s northern and
southern hemispheres. Combining both waves together and comparing to
real data for the current solar cycle, we found that our predictions
showed an accuracy of 97 per cent."

Research colleagues Simon Shepherd of Bradford University, Helen Popova
of Lomonosov Moscow State University and Sergei Zarkhov of the
University of Hull used magnetic field observations from 1976 to 2008 at
the Wilcox Solar Observatory at Stanford University.

A Royal Astronomical Society spokesman said: "It is 172 years since a
scientist first spotted that the Sun’s activity varies over a cycle
lasting around 10 to 12 years.

"But every cycle is a little different and none of the models of causes
to date have fully explained fluctuations."

The “double dynamo� theory appears to support claims of researchers who
argue Earth will soon experience major global cooling due to lower solar
activity as the sun goes into a sustained period of hibernation.

Environmentalists meanwhile claim global temperatures will increase over
the period unless we drastically reduce carbon emissions.




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On Thursday, 5 November 2015 11:19:54 UTC, jumper wrote:

A team of European researchers have unveiled a scientific model showing
that the Earth is likely to experience a "mini ice age" from 2030 to
2040 as a result of decreased solar activity.

You can be in no doubt of the leaning of the report from this sentence:

"Their findings will infuriate environmental campaigners who argue by
2030 we could be facing increased sea levels and flooding due to glacial
melt at the poles."

Richard

On 05/11/2015 14:28, Richard Dixon wrote:
On Thursday, 5 November 2015 11:19:54 UTC, jumper wrote:

A team of European researchers have unveiled a scientific model showing
that the Earth is likely to experience a "mini ice age" from 2030 to
2040 as a result of decreased solar activity.

You can be in no doubt of the leaning of the report from this sentence:

"Their findings will infuriate environmental campaigners who argue by
2030 we could be facing increased sea levels and flooding due to glacial
melt at the poles."


Indeed.
Science shouldn't be a competition where rival groups seek to
'infruriate' or get one over on their arch enemies. It's not a local
football derby.
Let's a little professionalism here!

--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

In article ,
says...
Science shouldn't be a competition where rival groups seek to
'infruriate' or get one over on their arch enemies. It's not a local
football derby.
Let's a little professionalism here!



To be fair, the article does tend io infer that "scientists" (as
researchers) and "environmental campaigners" are two mutually separate
entities.

--
Alan LeHun

On 05/11/2015 14:28, Richard Dixon wrote:
On Thursday, 5 November 2015 11:19:54 UTC, jumper wrote:

A team of European researchers have unveiled a scientific model showing
that the Earth is likely to experience a "mini ice age" from 2030 to
2040 as a result of decreased solar activity.

You can be in no doubt of the leaning of the report from this sentence:

"Their findings will infuriate environmental campaigners who argue by
2030 we could be facing increased sea levels and flooding due to glacial
melt at the poles."

Also on the face of it the entire hypothesis is complete ******** (TM)
since the sunspot cycle 24 is no different to similar weaker ones in the
early part of the nineteenth and twentieth century. It was cycles 18&19
from about 1945 through to 1965 and 21,22&23 1975-2009 that were
abnormally strong and exciting.

See the actual graph of Zurich sunspot number back to 1750 and decide
for yourself. The Maunder Minimum was 1645-1715 almost 70 years without
*any* sunspots - we aren't even remotely close to seeing that.

http://science.jrank.org/pages/4184/...r-Minimum.html

If you were really optimisic you could claim that this present cycle is
almost as weak as those of cycles 12,13,14 (1880-1910).

http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/im...olor_Small.jpg

By eye the pseudoperiodicity looks like quite a good match in terms of
both amplitude and period if you slide the graph so that 1800 overlies 2010.

Apart from Corbyn weather charlatan extraordinaire I can't see anyone
getting excited about this paper apart from AGW deniers and cranks. It
could be bad news for anyone buying an expensive solar telescope...

It is just about possible that the dual dynamo theory is right and
sunspot numbers will decrease below the threshold of visibility but it
isn't a strong contender at the moment since observation trumps theory
every time. The final arbiter in any dispute about physics is nature.

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

On Thursday, 5 November 2015 18:15:17 UTC, Col wrote:

Science shouldn't be a competition where rival groups seek to
'infruriate' or get one over on their arch enemies.

The religious zeal of the taking sides is quite desperate. It's almost like picking football teams (I use that analogy given the tribal behaviour).

Richard

On Friday, 6 November 2015 08:23:05 UTC, Martin Brown wrote:

Apart from Corbyn weather charlatan extraordinaire I can't see anyone
getting excited about this paper apart from AGW deniers and cranks. It
could be bad news for anyone buying an expensive solar telescope...

It is interesting then that research out of Reading a while back paid attention to this sort of thing:

http://centaur.reading.ac.uk/5903/

"We show that cold winter excursions from the hemispheric trend occur more commonly in the UK during low solar activity, consistent with the solar influence on the occurrence of persistent blocking events in the eastern Atlantic."

Richard

On 06/11/2015 17:08, Richard Dixon wrote:
On Friday, 6 November 2015 08:23:05 UTC, Martin Brown wrote:

Apart from Corbyn weather charlatan extraordinaire I can't see anyone
getting excited about this paper apart from AGW deniers and cranks. It
could be bad news for anyone buying an expensive solar telescope...

It is interesting then that research out of Reading a while back paid attention to this sort of thing:

http://centaur.reading.ac.uk/5903/

"We show that cold winter excursions from the hemispheric trend occur more commonly
in the UK during low solar activity, consistent with the solar
influence on the
occurrence of persistent blocking events in the eastern Atlantic."

Richard

There is a conjecture that changes in the UV output of a quiet sun could
play a part in the local cooling of the UK and N Europe. But the jury is
still out we have had some pretty warm winters recently with what is for
a solar maximum relatively low sunspot counts.

However, there is no worthwhile evidence that a "Maunder minimum" is
imminent and sunspot cycles are notoriously difficult to predict.

An 8% chance is what they estimate it to be in the next fifty years.
Not very good odds.

--
Regards,
Martin Brown