Following this months record breaking November maximum it reminded me of
the previous record back in 1938 and how similar this months synop
situation is, i.e persistent European High and an active Atlantic.
Perhaps more important is how the situation dramatically changed in mId
December to a blasting easterly finally giving the classic Christmas
snowstorm of the 20thy century.
I wonder whats the chance of an encore then ?, (or the first Christmas
forecast of this season)

RonB

In message , Ron Button
writes
Following this months record breaking November maximum it reminded me
of the previous record back in 1938 and how similar this months synop
situation is, i.e persistent European High and an active Atlantic.
Perhaps more important is how the situation dramatically changed in mId
December to a blasting easterly finally giving the classic Christmas
snowstorm of the 20thy century.

Whilst there was a deep snow cover over much of the country, it doesn't
seem to have actually snowed in most places on Christmas Day. That's
going by Trevor Harley's excellent site:

http://www.trevorharley.com/trevorha...1938_weather.h
tm

But apart from that nitpick, I'm in full agreement.

I wonder whats the chance of an encore then ?, (or the first Christmas
forecast of this season)

I'll be pleasantly surprised if it happens.
--
John Hall
"Honest criticism is hard to take,
particularly from a relative, a friend,
an acquaintance, or a stranger." Franklin P Jones

On Thursday, 5 November 2015 16:33:26 UTC, Ron Button wrote:
Following this months record breaking November maximum it reminded me of
the previous record back in 1938 and how similar this months synop
situation is, i.e persistent European High and an active Atlantic.
Perhaps more important is how the situation dramatically changed in mId
December to a blasting easterly finally giving the classic Christmas
snowstorm of the 20thy century.
I wonder whats the chance of an encore then ?, (or the first Christmas
forecast of this season)

RonB

There was a deep NW'ly cold plunge that November, 22-24, that brought 15cm of snow to southern Scotland. As with a lot of November snow events it didn't make it down here, just briefly turning it cooler.
The stats for Greenwich:
22nd 47.6 39.3 .013in
23rd 57.1 41.3 .015in
24th 46.9 36.4 -

It will be interesting if we get a similar brief cool plunge this month.

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On 05/11/2015 23:12, Scott W wrote:
On Thursday, 5 November 2015 16:33:26 UTC, Ron Button wrote:
Following this months record breaking November maximum it reminded me of
the previous record back in 1938 and how similar this months synop
situation is, i.e persistent European High and an active Atlantic.
Perhaps more important is how the situation dramatically changed in mId
December to a blasting easterly finally giving the classic Christmas
snowstorm of the 20thy century.
I wonder whats the chance of an encore then ?, (or the first Christmas
forecast of this season)

RonB

There was a deep NW'ly cold plunge that November, 22-24, that brought 15cm of snow to southern Scotland. As with a lot of November snow events it didn't make it down here, just briefly turning it cooler.
The stats for Greenwich:
22nd 47.6 39.3 .013in
23rd 57.1 41.3 .015in
24th 46.9 36.4 -

It will be interesting if we get a similar brief cool plunge this month.

Could be Scott

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmw...=0&archiveRonB

RonB

On Friday, 6 November 2015 14:18:43 UTC, Ron Button wrote:
On 05/11/2015 23:12, Scott W wrote:
On Thursday, 5 November 2015 16:33:26 UTC, Ron Button wrote:
Following this months record breaking November maximum it reminded me of
the previous record back in 1938 and how similar this months synop
situation is, i.e persistent European High and an active Atlantic.
Perhaps more important is how the situation dramatically changed in mId
December to a blasting easterly finally giving the classic Christmas
snowstorm of the 20thy century.
I wonder whats the chance of an encore then ?, (or the first Christmas
forecast of this season)

RonB

There was a deep NW'ly cold plunge that November, 22-24, that brought 15cm of snow to southern Scotland. As with a lot of November snow events it didn't make it down here, just briefly turning it cooler.
The stats for Greenwich:
22nd 47.6 39.3 .013in
23rd 57.1 41.3 .015in
24th 46.9 36.4 -

It will be interesting if we get a similar brief cool plunge this month.

Could be Scott

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmw...=0&archiveRonB

RonB


How much air is collect in the pressure systems preceding the elongations, in other words how much acreage do the cols involved start off with?
Gauge all those correctly and you can do sensible forecasts. At least it woks in the pressure systems I use. No idea what upper air values will be.

On Thursday, 5 November 2015 16:33:26 UTC, Ron Button wrote:
Following this months record breaking November maximum it reminded me of
the previous record back in 1938 and how similar this months synop
situation is, i.e persistent European High and an active Atlantic.
Perhaps more important is how the situation dramatically changed in mId
December to a blasting easterly finally giving the classic Christmas
snowstorm of the 20thy century.
I wonder whats the chance of an encore then ?, (or the first Christmas
forecast of this season)

I stumbled upon the CFS (no laughing now) NAO forecast for several months ahead. Not that I'd ever take this at face value, I did find interesting the fact that it has, for the last 3-4 months, consistently gone for a negative NAO setting in in January and lasting through Feb and March - or variations on a theme of late winter negative NAO.

It's consistency in the model that interests me - it could be that this is just the model tending to a basic state as it runs freely. Or it could be that this is a manifestation of the El Nino and - as I've read elsewhere, the tendency for the 2nd half of winter to be colder (in Europe) when one is prevalent. Or it could just be all a load of tosh. But it still piqued my interest.

That said, I'd love to see a proper roaring westerly winter like 1989/90.

Richard