Hahaha! I look for changes, more than anything Steve. The 'interesting
development' would be a change to this zonal pattern. Coldies look for
cold. When I've challenged whether cold is actually likely, coldies have
this innate desire to say it will be cold. Whatever the output shows.

Why are you looking for changes Paul?
I thought you liked the mild, SAD, zonal dross.
I talking of dross, why on earth would any one say it's going to be cold
when they know it's not. I don't see the point!!
Anyway we better all get used to it looks like it's going to go well into
January
Having said that, today was cooler but nice and sunny at times, pleasant
change from the usual dross.


Graham (Weston Coyney)

"Graham" wrote in message
...


Hahaha! I look for changes, more than anything Steve. The 'interesting
development' would be a change to this zonal pattern. Coldies look for
cold. When I've challenged whether cold is actually likely, coldies have
this innate desire to say it will be cold. Whatever the output shows.

Why are you looking for changes Paul?
I thought you liked the mild, SAD, zonal dross.
I talking of dross, why on earth would any one say it's going to be cold
when they know it's not. I don't see the point!!
Anyway we better all get used to it looks like it's going to go well into
January
Having said that, today was cooler but nice and sunny at times, pleasant
change from the usual dross.


At least it gets more stormy as we go into January. Less of the SW'ly muck.
I shall just ignore the boring benign SW'ly weather on Christmas Day. More
interesting further north though, but with a lot of rain in prospect for
Cumbria where an amber warning has just been issued for Boxing Day.

Will
--
" Some sects believe that the world was created 5000 years ago. Another sect
believes that it was created in 1910 "
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

You thought wrong.

ECM now showing a high over the Baltic and cold air edging its way around its southern flank in the direction of the U.K. No agreement, or consistency however, so no change forecastable with any confidence.

Cold air is not depicted heading towards the UK on those EC charts around the south of Baltic HP. They show frigid air driven SW'wards across Ukraine into the Carpathians, Balkans, Greece, Turkey and the Black Sea (about a 30% chance per ensembles of temperatures dropping below normal in those regions; for other parts of eastern Europe along with Poland and Germany there is 30% chance of cooling near normal, 15% of falling below). The UK remains largely in Tm types with occasional Pm / rPm incursions. Baltic HP would again likely be squashed back SE'wards by the strength of the jet.

More pertinent will be the chance of another big depression passing close by 29-30 Dec, most likely just to the NW, and/or a very wet warm conveyor. A procession of soaking depressions could move NE'ward along a frontal boundary stretching all the way to the eastern seaboard and the Gulf of Mexico. Above there is a very strong jet developing out of the Canadian Maritimes and ripe conditions in the N Atlantic next week for rapid cyclogenesis.

Stronger HP build into Scandinavia is currently a low risk but would of course steer Atlantic depressions farther away and mitigate the worst wind potential. More likely at the moment - further wet or stormy risks early in the New Year.

Stephen.

Zonal to the edge of reality on all models this evening.

On 24/12/2015 21:41, Dawlish wrote:
Zonal to the edge of reality on all models this evening.


It'll turn much colder in January 2016.

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On Thursday, December 24, 2015 at 9:41:39 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
Zonal to the edge of reality on all models this evening.

And a change back to interesting today. Interesting isn't it?

On 25/12/2015 13:45, Dawlish wrote:
On Thursday, December 24, 2015 at 9:41:39 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
Zonal to the edge of reality on all models this evening.

And a change back to interesting today. Interesting isn't it?


A phrase change around the 4th Jan to colder Pm and later in January the
prominent wind direction will be North easterly.

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On Friday, December 25, 2015 at 1:45:16 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Thursday, December 24, 2015 at 9:41:39 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
Zonal to the edge of reality on all models this evening.

And a change back to interesting today. Interesting isn't it?

Fascinating really. Nothing at all sorted at 10 days and it's been the same uncertainty for days. Still a chance of something more wintry. Still a chance of progressive and continuing mild.

You pays your money and you takes your chance. Anyone got any more confident than me?