On Saturday, 26 December 2015 19:32:50 UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Friday, December 25, 2015 at 1:45:16 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Thursday, December 24, 2015 at 9:41:39 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
Zonal to the edge of reality on all models this evening.

And a change back to interesting today. Interesting isn't it?

Fascinating really. Nothing at all sorted at 10 days and it's been the same uncertainty for days. Still a chance of something more wintry. Still a chance of progressive and continuing mild.

You pays your money and you takes your chance. Anyone got any more confident than me?

How do we "pay our money". I say this as the models are totally free; have you been paying, Paul.

On Sat, 26 Dec 2015 11:32:49 -0800 (PST), Dawlish
wrote:

On Friday, December 25, 2015 at 1:45:16 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Thursday, December 24, 2015 at 9:41:39 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
Zonal to the edge of reality on all models this evening.

And a change back to interesting today. Interesting isn't it?

Fascinating really. Nothing at all sorted at 10 days and it's been the same uncertainty for days. Still a chance of something more wintry. Still a chance of progressive and continuing mild.

You pays your money and you takes your chance. Anyone got any more confident than me?

There is currently for the first time broad agreement between the 3
ten day+ models on a cold outbreak from the east next week, though the
main High is set far away in northern Russia. Whether or not the real
cold actually makes it across the North Sea and Channel seems to be an
open question though... but they all predict that it may do.

It will be interesting to see at least a short break in the incessant
south westerlies, if it comes off.

--
Dave
Fareham

On 27/12/2015 14:14, Dave Ludlow wrote:
On Sat, 26 Dec 2015 11:32:49 -0800 (PST), Dawlish
wrote:

On Friday, December 25, 2015 at 1:45:16 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Thursday, December 24, 2015 at 9:41:39 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
Zonal to the edge of reality on all models this evening.

And a change back to interesting today. Interesting isn't it?

Fascinating really. Nothing at all sorted at 10 days and it's been the same uncertainty for days. Still a chance of something more wintry. Still a chance of progressive and continuing mild.

You pays your money and you takes your chance. Anyone got any more confident than me?

There is currently for the first time broad agreement between the 3
ten day+ models on a cold outbreak from the east next week, though the
main High is set far away in northern Russia. Whether or not the real
cold actually makes it across the North Sea and Channel seems to be an
open question though... but they all predict that it may do.

It will be interesting to see at least a short break in the incessant
south westerlies, if it comes off.


With such warm ground temperatures of late it would take som e drop of
temperature for snow to settle.

--
Keith (Southend)
"Weather Home & Abroad"
http://www.southendweather.net
Twitter:@SS9Weatherman

On Sunday, December 27, 2015 at 2:14:00 PM UTC, Dave Ludlow wrote:
On Sat, 26 Dec 2015 11:32:49 -0800 (PST), Dawlish
wrote:

On Friday, December 25, 2015 at 1:45:16 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Thursday, December 24, 2015 at 9:41:39 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
Zonal to the edge of reality on all models this evening.

And a change back to interesting today. Interesting isn't it?

Fascinating really. Nothing at all sorted at 10 days and it's been the same uncertainty for days. Still a chance of something more wintry. Still a chance of progressive and continuing mild.

You pays your money and you takes your chance. Anyone got any more confident than me?

There is currently for the first time broad agreement between the 3
ten day+ models on a cold outbreak from the east next week, though the
main High is set far away in northern Russia. Whether or not the real
cold actually makes it across the North Sea and Channel seems to be an
open question though... but they all predict that it may do.

It will be interesting to see at least a short break in the incessant
south westerlies, if it comes off.

--
Dave
Fareham

Good to stick your neck out Dave! Although the models are showing what you say ATM, there's just not been consistency enough for me to forecast. This evening's output may tip the balance.

On Sun, 27 Dec 2015 14:41:18 +0000, "Keith (Southend)"
wrote:

On 27/12/2015 14:14, Dave Ludlow wrote:
On Sat, 26 Dec 2015 11:32:49 -0800 (PST), Dawlish
wrote:

On Friday, December 25, 2015 at 1:45:16 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Thursday, December 24, 2015 at 9:41:39 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
Zonal to the edge of reality on all models this evening.

And a change back to interesting today. Interesting isn't it?

Fascinating really. Nothing at all sorted at 10 days and it's been the same uncertainty for days. Still a chance of something more wintry. Still a chance of progressive and continuing mild.

You pays your money and you takes your chance. Anyone got any more confident than me?

There is currently for the first time broad agreement between the 3
ten day+ models on a cold outbreak from the east next week, though the
main High is set far away in northern Russia. Whether or not the real
cold actually makes it across the North Sea and Channel seems to be an
open question though... but they all predict that it may do.

It will be interesting to see at least a short break in the incessant
south westerlies, if it comes off.


With such warm ground temperatures of late it would take som e drop of
temperature for snow to settle.

It doesn't take long, Keith. In Dec 2014 max/min temps in Tideswell were

16th 9.2/1.6
17th 10.6/3.8
18th 11.1/9.2
19th 5.6/3.9
20th 6.0/2.9
21st 10.5/4.8
22nd 11.4/5.8
23rd 10.1/8.3
24th 5.4/3.3
25th 4.7/3.7
26th 2.8/0.2
27th 0.8/-2.2

Yet, at 0900z on the 27th there were 27cm of lying snow. The temperature didn't
fall below zero till about 0515z on the 27th. The snow didn't last long. Milder
air swept in at the end of the month and by New Year's Day the snow had mostly
gone.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
http://peakdistrictweather.org

On Sunday, December 27, 2015 at 3:22:36 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, December 27, 2015 at 2:14:00 PM UTC, Dave Ludlow wrote:
On Sat, 26 Dec 2015 11:32:49 -0800 (PST), Dawlish
wrote:

On Friday, December 25, 2015 at 1:45:16 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Thursday, December 24, 2015 at 9:41:39 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
Zonal to the edge of reality on all models this evening.

And a change back to interesting today. Interesting isn't it?

Fascinating really. Nothing at all sorted at 10 days and it's been the same uncertainty for days. Still a chance of something more wintry. Still a chance of progressive and continuing mild.

You pays your money and you takes your chance. Anyone got any more confident than me?

There is currently for the first time broad agreement between the 3
ten day+ models on a cold outbreak from the east next week, though the
main High is set far away in northern Russia. Whether or not the real
cold actually makes it across the North Sea and Channel seems to be an
open question though... but they all predict that it may do.

It will be interesting to see at least a short break in the incessant
south westerlies, if it comes off.

--
Dave
Fareham

Good to stick your neck out Dave! Although the models are showing what you say ATM, there's just not been consistency enough for me to forecast. This evening's output may tip the balance.

Models appear to be keeping the cold at bay tonight.

On Sunday, December 27, 2015 at 9:35:12 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, December 27, 2015 at 3:22:36 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, December 27, 2015 at 2:14:00 PM UTC, Dave Ludlow wrote:
On Sat, 26 Dec 2015 11:32:49 -0800 (PST), Dawlish
wrote:

On Friday, December 25, 2015 at 1:45:16 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Thursday, December 24, 2015 at 9:41:39 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
Zonal to the edge of reality on all models this evening.

And a change back to interesting today. Interesting isn't it?

Fascinating really. Nothing at all sorted at 10 days and it's been the same uncertainty for days. Still a chance of something more wintry. Still a chance of progressive and continuing mild.

You pays your money and you takes your chance. Anyone got any more confident than me?

There is currently for the first time broad agreement between the 3
ten day+ models on a cold outbreak from the east next week, though the
main High is set far away in northern Russia. Whether or not the real
cold actually makes it across the North Sea and Channel seems to be an
open question though... but they all predict that it may do.

It will be interesting to see at least a short break in the incessant
south westerlies, if it comes off.

--
Dave
Fareham

Good to stick your neck out Dave! Although the models are showing what you say ATM, there's just not been consistency enough for me to forecast. This evening's output may tip the balance.

Models appear to be keeping the cold at bay tonight.

And the possible cold is even more at bay today......

This is a fascinating model situation and has added interest to model-watching, but it must be soooooo frustrating for the coldies on the weather forums.

On Monday, December 28, 2015 at 9:04:42 AM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, December 27, 2015 at 9:35:12 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, December 27, 2015 at 3:22:36 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, December 27, 2015 at 2:14:00 PM UTC, Dave Ludlow wrote:
On Sat, 26 Dec 2015 11:32:49 -0800 (PST), Dawlish
wrote:

On Friday, December 25, 2015 at 1:45:16 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Thursday, December 24, 2015 at 9:41:39 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
Zonal to the edge of reality on all models this evening.

And a change back to interesting today. Interesting isn't it?

Fascinating really. Nothing at all sorted at 10 days and it's been the same uncertainty for days. Still a chance of something more wintry. Still a chance of progressive and continuing mild.

You pays your money and you takes your chance. Anyone got any more confident than me?

There is currently for the first time broad agreement between the 3
ten day+ models on a cold outbreak from the east next week, though the
main High is set far away in northern Russia. Whether or not the real
cold actually makes it across the North Sea and Channel seems to be an
open question though... but they all predict that it may do.

It will be interesting to see at least a short break in the incessant
south westerlies, if it comes off.

--
Dave
Fareham

Good to stick your neck out Dave! Although the models are showing what you say ATM, there's just not been consistency enough for me to forecast. This evening's output may tip the balance.

Models appear to be keeping the cold at bay tonight.

And the possible cold is even more at bay today......

This is a fascinating model situation and has added interest to model-watching, but it must be soooooo frustrating for the coldies on the weather forums.

ECM is progressive and pushes the cold away. GEM gives more than a glimmer of hope to the coldies and gfs is pretty undecided!

A tiny bit more than very slightly interesting developments, but I started this thread on Dec 22, a week ago and little has clarified re-the UK, more than winds from a generally southerly direction: potentially wet at times and fairly mild.

On Tuesday, December 29, 2015 at 10:27:32 AM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Monday, December 28, 2015 at 9:04:42 AM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, December 27, 2015 at 9:35:12 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, December 27, 2015 at 3:22:36 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, December 27, 2015 at 2:14:00 PM UTC, Dave Ludlow wrote:
On Sat, 26 Dec 2015 11:32:49 -0800 (PST), Dawlish
wrote:

On Friday, December 25, 2015 at 1:45:16 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Thursday, December 24, 2015 at 9:41:39 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
Zonal to the edge of reality on all models this evening.

And a change back to interesting today. Interesting isn't it?

Fascinating really. Nothing at all sorted at 10 days and it's been the same uncertainty for days. Still a chance of something more wintry. Still a chance of progressive and continuing mild.

You pays your money and you takes your chance. Anyone got any more confident than me?

There is currently for the first time broad agreement between the 3
ten day+ models on a cold outbreak from the east next week, though the
main High is set far away in northern Russia. Whether or not the real
cold actually makes it across the North Sea and Channel seems to be an
open question though... but they all predict that it may do.

It will be interesting to see at least a short break in the incessant
south westerlies, if it comes off.

--
Dave
Fareham

Good to stick your neck out Dave! Although the models are showing what you say ATM, there's just not been consistency enough for me to forecast. This evening's output may tip the balance.

Models appear to be keeping the cold at bay tonight.

And the possible cold is even more at bay today......

This is a fascinating model situation and has added interest to model-watching, but it must be soooooo frustrating for the coldies on the weather forums.

ECM is progressive and pushes the cold away. GEM gives more than a glimmer of hope to the coldies and gfs is pretty undecided!

A tiny bit more than very slightly interesting developments, but I started this thread on Dec 22, a week ago and little has clarified re-the UK, more than winds from a generally southerly direction: potentially wet at times and fairly mild.

12z gfs keeps things vaguely interesting, but with no real change in the UK's weather. A full week on from when this situation first showed itself and the model outcome remains exactly the same for the UK!

On Tuesday, December 29, 2015 at 5:27:34 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Tuesday, December 29, 2015 at 10:27:32 AM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Monday, December 28, 2015 at 9:04:42 AM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, December 27, 2015 at 9:35:12 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, December 27, 2015 at 3:22:36 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, December 27, 2015 at 2:14:00 PM UTC, Dave Ludlow wrote:
On Sat, 26 Dec 2015 11:32:49 -0800 (PST), Dawlish
wrote:

On Friday, December 25, 2015 at 1:45:16 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Thursday, December 24, 2015 at 9:41:39 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
Zonal to the edge of reality on all models this evening.

And a change back to interesting today. Interesting isn't it?

Fascinating really. Nothing at all sorted at 10 days and it's been the same uncertainty for days. Still a chance of something more wintry. Still a chance of progressive and continuing mild.

You pays your money and you takes your chance. Anyone got any more confident than me?

There is currently for the first time broad agreement between the 3
ten day+ models on a cold outbreak from the east next week, though the
main High is set far away in northern Russia. Whether or not the real
cold actually makes it across the North Sea and Channel seems to be an
open question though... but they all predict that it may do.

It will be interesting to see at least a short break in the incessant
south westerlies, if it comes off.

--
Dave
Fareham

Good to stick your neck out Dave! Although the models are showing what you say ATM, there's just not been consistency enough for me to forecast. This evening's output may tip the balance.

Models appear to be keeping the cold at bay tonight.

And the possible cold is even more at bay today......

This is a fascinating model situation and has added interest to model-watching, but it must be soooooo frustrating for the coldies on the weather forums.

ECM is progressive and pushes the cold away. GEM gives more than a glimmer of hope to the coldies and gfs is pretty undecided!

A tiny bit more than very slightly interesting developments, but I started this thread on Dec 22, a week ago and little has clarified re-the UK, more than winds from a generally southerly direction: potentially wet at times and fairly mild.

12z gfs keeps things vaguely interesting, but with no real change in the UK's weather. A full week on from when this situation first showed itself and the model outcome remains exactly the same for the UK!

Is the balance tipping away from this model cold reaching the UK with the GEM and ECM?