On Friday, January 1, 2016 at 12:06:10 PM UTC, Freddie wrote:
Dawlish Wrote in message:
On Friday, January 1, 2016 at 11:38:01 AM UTC, Freddie wrote:
Dawlish Wrote in message:
On Thursday, December 31, 2015 at 8:51:32 PM UTC, Stephen Davenport wrote:
On Thursday, December 31, 2015 at 3:36:18 AM UTC-5, Dawlish wrote:
On Tuesday, December 29, 2015 at 7:11:18 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Tuesday, December 29, 2015 at 5:27:34 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Tuesday, December 29, 2015 at 10:27:32 AM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Monday, December 28, 2015 at 9:04:42 AM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, December 27, 2015 at 9:35:12 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, December 27, 2015 at 3:22:36 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, December 27, 2015 at 2:14:00 PM UTC, Dave Ludlow wrote:
On Sat, 26 Dec 2015 11:32:49 -0800 (PST), Dawlish
wrote:

On Friday, December 25, 2015 at 1:45:16 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Thursday, December 24, 2015 at 9:41:39 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
Zonal to the edge of reality on all models this evening.

And a change back to interesting today. Interesting isn't it?

Fascinating really. Nothing at all sorted at 10 days and it's been the same uncertainty for days. Still a chance of something more wintry. Still a chance of progressive and continuing mild.

You pays your money and you takes your chance. Anyone got any more confident than me?

There is currently for the first time broad agreement between the 3
ten day+ models on a cold outbreak from the east next week, though the
main High is set far away in northern Russia. Whether or not the real
cold actually makes it across the North Sea and Channel seems to be an
open question though... but they all predict that it may do.

It will be interesting to see at least a short break in the incessant
south westerlies, if it comes off.

--
Dave
Fareham

Good to stick your neck out Dave! Although the models are showing what you say ATM, there's just not been consistency enough for me to forecast. This evening's output may tip the balance.

Models appear to be keeping the cold at bay tonight.

And the possible cold is even more at bay today......

This is a fascinating model situation and has added interest to model-watching, but it must be soooooo frustrating for the coldies on the weather forums.

ECM is progressive and pushes the cold away. GEM gives more than a glimmer of hope to the coldies and gfs is pretty undecided!

A tiny bit more than very slightly interesting developments, but I started this thread on Dec 22, a week ago and little has clarified re-the UK, more than winds from a generally southerly direction: potentially wet at times and fairly mild.

12z gfs keeps things vaguely interesting, but with no real change in the UK's weather. A full week on from when this situation first showed itself and the model outcome remains exactly the same for the UK!

Is the balance tipping away from this model cold reaching the UK with the GEM and ECM?

Very little chance of this model-proposed cold from the east advancing towards the UK now. I'll perhaps be sure enough to say with 80% certainty this evening. I'm afraid the few who proposed the cold's advancement to the UK in early January are very likely to be mistaken. The difficult part of forecasting with any kind of high level of accuracy at 10 days, is knowing when not to forecast. Most of the time, you'll be guessing and will be wrong. I'm still not certain enough, this morning, to present an opposite forecast to cold at 10 days - there's not quite the consistency I'd like to see and hints are still there - but I may well be confident enough this evening.

NB However, a SSW appears to be in the process of forming, so cold *may* head our way later in January. (Noting that the relationship between the development of SSWs and the establishment of cold from the east, in the UK, is not in any way a certain one).

http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_s...rent_merra.pdf

=======

Why, in the context of SSWs, are you linking to the 10hPa temperature at *50 deg N*?

Mainly because it's the easiest proxy to understand for a rise in stratospheric temps. Do link, if you wish to show this differently.


But why at 50 north? Why not further north where the warmings
originate?
--
Freddie
Pontesbury
Shropshire
102m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
http://twitter.com/PontesburyWx for hourly reports


----Android NewsGroup Reader----
http://usenet.sinaapp.com/

Decent. Could do. I chose 50N, as it is our lat.


Okay. But the further north you choose to watch, then the better
signal you get.
--
Freddie
Pontesbury
Shropshire
102m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
http://twitter.com/PontesburyWx for hourly reports


----Android NewsGroup Reader----
http://usenet.sinaapp.com/

True. On the NASA site, the number of files are huge.

http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_s.../annual/merra/

50N was the first graph I came to. Probably not the best, as you say. Nothing terribly interesting on the SSW front at present.

On Friday, January 1, 2016 at 5:10:23 AM UTC-5, Dawlish wrote:
On Thursday, December 31, 2015 at 8:51:32 PM UTC, Stephen Davenport wrote:
On Thursday, December 31, 2015 at 3:36:18 AM UTC-5, Dawlish wrote:
On Tuesday, December 29, 2015 at 7:11:18 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Tuesday, December 29, 2015 at 5:27:34 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Tuesday, December 29, 2015 at 10:27:32 AM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Monday, December 28, 2015 at 9:04:42 AM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, December 27, 2015 at 9:35:12 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, December 27, 2015 at 3:22:36 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, December 27, 2015 at 2:14:00 PM UTC, Dave Ludlow wrote:
On Sat, 26 Dec 2015 11:32:49 -0800 (PST), Dawlish
wrote:

On Friday, December 25, 2015 at 1:45:16 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Thursday, December 24, 2015 at 9:41:39 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
Zonal to the edge of reality on all models this evening.

And a change back to interesting today. Interesting isn't it?

Fascinating really. Nothing at all sorted at 10 days and it's been the same uncertainty for days. Still a chance of something more wintry. Still a chance of progressive and continuing mild.

You pays your money and you takes your chance. Anyone got any more confident than me?

There is currently for the first time broad agreement between the 3
ten day+ models on a cold outbreak from the east next week, though the
main High is set far away in northern Russia. Whether or not the real
cold actually makes it across the North Sea and Channel seems to be an
open question though... but they all predict that it may do.

It will be interesting to see at least a short break in the incessant
south westerlies, if it comes off.

--
Dave
Fareham

Good to stick your neck out Dave! Although the models are showing what you say ATM, there's just not been consistency enough for me to forecast. This evening's output may tip the balance.

Models appear to be keeping the cold at bay tonight.

And the possible cold is even more at bay today......

This is a fascinating model situation and has added interest to model-watching, but it must be soooooo frustrating for the coldies on the weather forums.

ECM is progressive and pushes the cold away. GEM gives more than a glimmer of hope to the coldies and gfs is pretty undecided!

A tiny bit more than very slightly interesting developments, but I started this thread on Dec 22, a week ago and little has clarified re-the UK, more than winds from a generally southerly direction: potentially wet at times and fairly mild.

12z gfs keeps things vaguely interesting, but with no real change in the UK's weather. A full week on from when this situation first showed itself and the model outcome remains exactly the same for the UK!

Is the balance tipping away from this model cold reaching the UK with the GEM and ECM?

Very little chance of this model-proposed cold from the east advancing towards the UK now. I'll perhaps be sure enough to say with 80% certainty this evening. I'm afraid the few who proposed the cold's advancement to the UK in early January are very likely to be mistaken. The difficult part of forecasting with any kind of high level of accuracy at 10 days, is knowing when not to forecast. Most of the time, you'll be guessing and will be wrong. I'm still not certain enough, this morning, to present an opposite forecast to cold at 10 days - there's not quite the consistency I'd like to see and hints are still there - but I may well be confident enough this evening.

NB However, a SSW appears to be in the process of forming, so cold *may* head our way later in January. (Noting that the relationship between the development of SSWs and the establishment of cold from the east, in the UK, is not in any way a certain one).

http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_s...rent_merra.pdf

=======

Why, in the context of SSWs, are you linking to the 10hPa temperature at *50 deg N*?

Mainly because it's the easiest proxy to understand for a rise in stratospheric temps. Do link, if you wish to show this differently.

========

Not at 50 deg N, it isn't.

Stephen.

On Friday, January 1, 2016 at 6:40:17 AM UTC-5, Dawlish wrote:
On Friday, January 1, 2016 at 11:38:01 AM UTC, Freddie wrote:
Dawlish Wrote in message:
On Thursday, December 31, 2015 at 8:51:32 PM UTC, Stephen Davenport wrote:
On Thursday, December 31, 2015 at 3:36:18 AM UTC-5, Dawlish wrote:
On Tuesday, December 29, 2015 at 7:11:18 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Tuesday, December 29, 2015 at 5:27:34 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Tuesday, December 29, 2015 at 10:27:32 AM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Monday, December 28, 2015 at 9:04:42 AM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, December 27, 2015 at 9:35:12 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, December 27, 2015 at 3:22:36 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, December 27, 2015 at 2:14:00 PM UTC, Dave Ludlow wrote:
On Sat, 26 Dec 2015 11:32:49 -0800 (PST), Dawlish
wrote:

On Friday, December 25, 2015 at 1:45:16 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Thursday, December 24, 2015 at 9:41:39 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
Zonal to the edge of reality on all models this evening.

And a change back to interesting today. Interesting isn't it?

Fascinating really. Nothing at all sorted at 10 days and it's been the same uncertainty for days. Still a chance of something more wintry. Still a chance of progressive and continuing mild.

You pays your money and you takes your chance. Anyone got any more confident than me?

There is currently for the first time broad agreement between the 3
ten day+ models on a cold outbreak from the east next week, though the
main High is set far away in northern Russia. Whether or not the real
cold actually makes it across the North Sea and Channel seems to be an
open question though... but they all predict that it may do.

It will be interesting to see at least a short break in the incessant
south westerlies, if it comes off.

--
Dave
Fareham

Good to stick your neck out Dave! Although the models are showing what you say ATM, there's just not been consistency enough for me to forecast. This evening's output may tip the balance.

Models appear to be keeping the cold at bay tonight.

And the possible cold is even more at bay today......

This is a fascinating model situation and has added interest to model-watching, but it must be soooooo frustrating for the coldies on the weather forums.

ECM is progressive and pushes the cold away. GEM gives more than a glimmer of hope to the coldies and gfs is pretty undecided!

A tiny bit more than very slightly interesting developments, but I started this thread on Dec 22, a week ago and little has clarified re-the UK, more than winds from a generally southerly direction: potentially wet at times and fairly mild.

12z gfs keeps things vaguely interesting, but with no real change in the UK's weather. A full week on from when this situation first showed itself and the model outcome remains exactly the same for the UK!

Is the balance tipping away from this model cold reaching the UK with the GEM and ECM?

Very little chance of this model-proposed cold from the east advancing towards the UK now. I'll perhaps be sure enough to say with 80% certainty this evening. I'm afraid the few who proposed the cold's advancement to the UK in early January are very likely to be mistaken. The difficult part of forecasting with any kind of high level of accuracy at 10 days, is knowing when not to forecast. Most of the time, you'll be guessing and will be wrong. I'm still not certain enough, this morning, to present an opposite forecast to cold at 10 days - there's not quite the consistency I'd like to see and hints are still there - but I may well be confident enough this evening.

NB However, a SSW appears to be in the process of forming, so cold *may* head our way later in January. (Noting that the relationship between the development of SSWs and the establishment of cold from the east, in the UK, is not in any way a certain one).

http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_s...rent_merra.pdf

=======

Why, in the context of SSWs, are you linking to the 10hPa temperature at *50 deg N*?

Mainly because it's the easiest proxy to understand for a rise in stratospheric temps. Do link, if you wish to show this differently.


But why at 50 north? Why not further north where the warmings
originate?
--
Freddie
Pontesbury
Shropshire
102m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
http://twitter.com/PontesburyWx for hourly reports


----Android NewsGroup Reader----
http://usenet.sinaapp.com/

Decent. Could do. I chose 50N, as it is our lat.

========

Irrelevant. It's not defined at 50 deg N. My latitude is 40 deg N but I'm not going to find a graph for that. Choose 60 deg N or greater, or the 60-90 deg N zonal mean.

http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_s...2015_merra.pdf

Stephen.
Stephen.

On Friday, January 1, 2016 at 11:29:21 AM UTC-5, Dawlish wrote:


True. On the NASA site, the number of files are huge.

========

The number of files "IS" huge, not "are".

Stephen.

On Friday, January 1, 2016 at 6:56:25 PM UTC, Stephen Davenport wrote:
On Friday, January 1, 2016 at 11:29:21 AM UTC-5, Dawlish wrote:


True. On the NASA site, the number of files are huge.

========

The number of files "IS" huge, not "are".

Stephen.

Stephen, please do not correct his grammar. Only he is allowed to do this to others, have you learnt nothing? (He's in education you know).

On Friday, January 1, 2016 at 7:40:47 PM UTC, David Mitchell wrote:
On Friday, January 1, 2016 at 6:56:25 PM UTC, Stephen Davenport wrote:
On Friday, January 1, 2016 at 11:29:21 AM UTC-5, Dawlish wrote:


True. On the NASA site, the number of files are huge.

========

The number of files "IS" huge, not "are".

Stephen.

Stephen, please do not correct his grammar. Only he is allowed to do this to others, have you learnt nothing? (He's in education you know).

It's also probably worth pointing that whilst this thread now covers 240 hours of trying to spot something vaguely interesting in 240 hours time, there has in fact been a very interesting 240 hours of weather. Something Dawlish may have missed by trying to spot something 240 hours in advance and posting to this thread 24 times!

In fact it's been a truly remarkable December.

Graham
Penzance (A very windy, wet & miserable day)

On Friday, January 1, 2016 at 3:18:53 PM UTC-5, Graham Easterling wrote:


It's also probably worth pointing that whilst this thread now covers 240 hours of trying to spot something vaguely interesting in 240 hours time, there has in fact been a very interesting 240 hours of weather. Something Dawlish may have missed by trying to spot something 240 hours in advance and posting to this thread 24 times!

In fact it's been a truly remarkable December.

Graham
Penzance (A very windy, wet & miserable day)

========

Indeed it has. The assessment in my post of December 24th, although not a forecast per se, was reasonable regarding wetness, storminess and continued strong zonality; and the ECMWF runs before Christmas turned out to be pretty good in identifying the current push of more frigid air across Russia towards SE Europe, and the colder conditions across Poland / Scandinavia temporarily towards Germany this weekend but not much farther.

Stephen.

Good grief! A grammar correction. Please don't ever make any errors Stephen will you?

I see mitchell has decided to continue his obsession. laughing again

On Saturday, January 2, 2016 at 7:16:49 AM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
Good grief! A grammar correction. Please don't ever make any errors Stephen will you?

I see mitchell has decided to continue his obsession. laughing again

You total hypocrite. You just cannot help yourself responding can you?

How many times have you pointed out grammatical errors on here? But heavens forbid, when one of yours (there are many) is highlighted, you take the bait.

Once again, one rule for Dawlish...............

On Saturday, January 2, 2016 at 1:45:45 PM UTC, David Mitchell wrote:
On Saturday, January 2, 2016 at 7:16:49 AM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
Good grief! A grammar correction. Please don't ever make any errors Stephen will you?

I see mitchell has decided to continue his obsession. laughing again

You total hypocrite. You just cannot help yourself responding can you?

No mitchell, you can't, can you? The entertainment goes on. Why not flounce off like you did before, crying for sympathy (and getting next to none), then crawling back, hoping no-one will notice as you can't help your obsession?