Here on the Chilterns just outside High Wycombe the dry bulb temp was just 6C at
midday yesterday. It's been a good many years since I've known such a cold day
in early October. ISTR October 1981 was unusually cold.

Can anyone shed any further light on this?
Aagh! Every time I learn something new... it pushes something old out of my brain!

"Nigel Morgan" wrote in message
...
Here on the Chilterns just outside High Wycombe the dry bulb temp was
just 6C at
midday yesterday. It's been a good many years since I've known such a
cold day
in early October. ISTR October 1981 was unusually cold.

Can anyone shed any further light on this?
Aagh! Every time I learn something new... it pushes something old out
of my brain!

Quite a bit less cold to the east in St Albans - temperature was about
10°C with a maximum of 12°C in the late afternoon.

Alan

In article ,
Nigel Morgan writes:
Here on the Chilterns just outside High Wycombe the dry bulb temp was
just 6C at midday yesterday. It's been a good many years since I've
known such a cold day in early October. ISTR October 1981 was
unusually cold.

October 1981 was summed up in Weather Log as "Cold and wet. No
anticyclonic spells." If you're hoping that a cold October leads to a
cold winter, don't forget that October, 1974 was followed by a very mild
one.
--
John Hall
"One half of the world cannot understand
the pleasures of the other."
From "Emma" by Jane Austen (1775-1817)

In message , John Hall
writes
In article ,
Nigel Morgan writes:
Here on the Chilterns just outside High Wycombe the dry bulb temp was
just 6C at midday yesterday. It's been a good many years since I've
known such a cold day in early October. ISTR October 1981 was
unusually cold.

October 1981 was summed up in Weather Log as "Cold and wet. No
anticyclonic spells." If you're hoping that a cold October leads to a
cold winter, don't forget that October, 1974 was followed by a very mild
one.
I think you'll find the exact opposite at least here in Stoke (N.
Midlands) since 1967!

Highest October means since 1967:

1968 - 11.4c with 70% rainfall: Winter 69 had average Dec, mild Jan but
v. cold and snowy Feb
1969 - 12.0c with 12% rainfall: Winter 70 was cold and quite snowy
1978 - 10.7c with 34% rainfall: Winter 79 was very cold and very snowy
1990 - 10.7c with 101% rainfall: Winter 91 was cold with snowy
spells
1995 - 11.8c with 41% rainfall: Winter 96 was cold with some snow
2001 - 12.0c with 128% rainfall: Winter 02 had a cold Dec but v.
mild Jan & Feb

I think a warm and dry October brings the best results at least since
1967!
--
Graham

In article ,
Graham writes:
Highest October means since 1967:

1968 - 11.4c with 70% rainfall: Winter 69 had average Dec, mild Jan but
v. cold and snowy Feb
1969 - 12.0c with 12% rainfall: Winter 70 was cold and quite snowy
1978 - 10.7c with 34% rainfall: Winter 79 was very cold and very snowy
1990 - 10.7c with 101% rainfall: Winter 91 was cold with snowy
spells
1995 - 11.8c with 41% rainfall: Winter 96 was cold with some snow
2001 - 12.0c with 128% rainfall: Winter 02 had a cold Dec but v.
mild Jan & Feb

I think a warm and dry October brings the best results at least since
1967!

That's interesting. I've seen it suggested that wet autumns are likely
to lead to cold winters. The rationale being that a wet autumn suggests
that depression tracks are further south than usual, and that if (as is
normal) they move further south still during the winter then they will
be passing to the south of the UK.

In LP Smith's book "Seasonable Weather", he found that between 1850 and
1949 at Kew there were 22 "very wet" autumns, which were followed by 4
"warm" and 18 "cold" winters, of which 3 were "very warm" and 7 "very
cold". After 50 "wet" autumns, there were 19 "warm" and 31 "cold"
winters, of which 6 were "very warm" and 15 "very cold".

However, when he looked at the subsequent period from 1950 to 1966, he
was forced to conclude that "the behaviour pattern of the previous
hundred years has been almost torn to tatters by the recent years..."

Incidentally, this is one of my favourite weather books, so I was glad
to see an article about Smith in the current issue of "Weather".
--
John Hall
"Sir, I have found you an argument;
but I am not obliged to find you an understanding."
Dr Samuel Johnson (1709-1784)