On Wednesday, January 6, 2016 at 7:59:50 AM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Tuesday, January 5, 2016 at 7:02:41 PM UTC, Col wrote:
On 05/01/2016 07:54, Dawlish wrote:
Agreement and consistency for a change.

**At T+240, on 15th Jan 2015, the UK's weather will have a source to the north, or north-west of the UK, bringing snow showers, or longer periods of snow to the hills of the UK, especially in the north, but *perhaps* some lower level snow showers further south than Scotland. Colder everywhere in the daytime and at night, than at present, with some sharp frosts around this date.**

There you go. An 80% chance of a change by mid-Jan. Chances of some lowland snow showers further south, eh? Perhaps not in Dawlish 😀.

I'm surprised you have missed the opportunity over the last few weeks to
predict unrelenting mild & wet conditions. Surely you would have
considered the chances to have been 80% on many occasisons?

And now you stick your head abouve the parapet with a major type change!

--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

I just couldn't be bothered, Col. I've said I was looking for a change. Many times in the past, I could have boosted my 80% average success, by forecasting on a daily basis, but I always leave it at least 3 days. It was so obvious a change was not coming (implied by me still looking for it and ignoring the suggested model change around the start of the New Year), that I just didn't think a forecast was needed. Like I said, I was looking for the change.

But, around 240 hours for your original 240 hours forecast there was a a marked change. The HP just to the S-SE collapsed, and depressions racing off NW Scotland instead crossed the centre of the UK. So you missed that change.. Big, big change in barometric pressure in the south.

Perhaps you've not got a barometer, or spotted what's been happening in eastern Scotland? Even here in Cornwall a change from dull conditions with patchy light rain, to much more active frontal systems and returning polar maritime air.

Graham
Penzance