What looks like an average temperature Feb that's maybe wetter than normal and then colder than average March and April:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pd...emp-FMA_v1.pdf
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pd...cip-FMA_v1.pdf

Actually the range of solutions for February's precipitation looks slightly odd and suggested almost a bimodal distribution - one centred around 50mm and one centred around 120mm or so...

Richard

"Richard Dixon" wrote in message
...
What looks like an average temperature Feb that's maybe wetter than normal
and then colder than average March and April:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pd...emp-FMA_v1.pdf
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pd...cip-FMA_v1.pdf

Actually the range of solutions for February's precipitation looks
slightly odd and suggested almost a bimodal distribution - one centred
around 50mm and one centred around 120mm or so...


Also specific mention of an SSW event!

Will
--
" Some sects believe that the world was created 5000 years ago. Another sect
believes that it was created in 1910 "
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

On Tuesday, 26 January 2016 12:38:04 UTC, wrote:

Also specific mention of an SSW event!

The write-up in general was excellent, I thought - as hard as it is to show the importance of the various factors influencing what's to come...

Richard

On Tuesday, 26 January 2016 12:24:36 UTC, Richard Dixon wrote:
What looks like an average temperature Feb that's maybe wetter than normal and then colder than average March and April:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pd...emp-FMA_v1.pdf
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pd...cip-FMA_v1.pdf

Actually the range of solutions for February's precipitation looks slightly odd and suggested almost a bimodal distribution - one centred around 50mm and one centred around 120mm or so...

Richard

Using Netweather estimates to the end of the month I've had a look at the analogues for my region.

Temperatu
Mild: 7%
Rather mild: 21%
Average: 44%
Rather cold: 7%
Cold: 7%
Very cold: 7%
Seve 7% (Interesting that January 1991 was in there...)

Rainfall
Average or greater: 43%
Drier than average: 50%


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In message ,
Scott W writes
Using Netweather estimates to the end of the month I've had a look at
the analogues for my region.

Temperatu
Mild: 7%
Rather mild: 21%
Average: 44%
Rather cold: 7%
Cold: 7%
Very cold: 7%
Seve 7% (Interesting that January 1991 was in there...)

Did they (or you) mean February 1991?
--
John Hall
"Honest criticism is hard to take,
particularly from a relative, a friend,
an acquaintance, or a stranger." Franklin P Jones

On Wednesday, January 27, 2016 at 9:54:09 AM UTC, John Hall wrote:
In message ,
Scott W writes
Using Netweather estimates to the end of the month I've had a look at
the analogues for my region.

Temperatu
Mild: 7%
Rather mild: 21%
Average: 44%
Rather cold: 7%
Cold: 7%
Very cold: 7%
Seve 7% (Interesting that January 1991 was in there...)

Did they (or you) mean February 1991?
--
The January 1991 analogue. But with a probability of 7% perhaps safely ignored. Unless there is something in that ECM run this morning?

In message ,
Scott W writes
On Wednesday, January 27, 2016 at 9:54:09 AM UTC, John Hall wrote:
In message ,
Scott W writes
Using Netweather estimates to the end of the month I've had a look at
the analogues for my region.

Temperatu
Mild: 7%
Rather mild: 21%
Average: 44%
Rather cold: 7%
Cold: 7%
Very cold: 7%
Seve 7% (Interesting that January 1991 was in there...)

Did they (or you) mean February 1991?
--
The January 1991 analogue.

Ah, now I'm with you.

But with a probability of 7% perhaps safely ignored. Unless there is
something in that ECM run this morning?

Funny you should say that. The 12Z isn't that dissimilar to the 0Z,
but the ECM and GFS are miles apart. However it looks to me that the
ECM's cold snap, should it occur, is unlikely to last long beyond T+240.
--
John Hall
"Honest criticism is hard to take,
particularly from a relative, a friend,
an acquaintance, or a stranger." Franklin P Jones

On Wednesday, January 27, 2016 at 9:54:09 AM UTC, John Hall wrote:
In message ,
Scott W writes
Using Netweather estimates to the end of the month I've had a look at
the analogues for my region.

Temperatu
Mild: 7%
Rather mild: 21%
Average: 44%
Rather cold: 7%
Cold: 7%
Very cold: 7%
Seve 7% (Interesting that January 1991 was in there...)

Did they (or you) mean February 1991?
--
Sorry John, yes February 1991. The January 1991 analogue (for temp and rainfall) has been similar in Wanstead. But at 7% probability perhaps safely ignored? Unless there is some truth in the ECM run this morning?