Today I am taking my U3A Weather and Climate group on a visit to the high priesthood. That is, the Met Office HQ in Exeter.

They are an enthusiastic bunch of pensioners and will no doubt have many questions for the employees incarcerated there.

I will be interested to know how much leeway the operational meteorologists have to intervene when the model forecast for 12 hr or less ahead is going wrong.

Does anyone on this ng have a question for me to ask them?

Len
Wembury, SW Devon

My wife says that if she asks nicely will they take me back?

Why don't they employ probability forecasts at T+??. Especially at T+240, of course, at a personal level. I'd love to hear their response and I'm sure it would lead to some interesting conversations. Glad you and your group are excited. Have a great day.

On Saturday, 13 February 2016 10:08:33 UTC, Len Wood wrote:
Today I am taking my U3A Weather and Climate group on a visit to the high priesthood. That is, the Met Office HQ in Exeter.

They are an enthusiastic bunch of pensioners and will no doubt have many questions for the employees incarcerated there.

I will be interested to know how much leeway the operational meteorologists have to intervene when the model forecast for 12 hr or less ahead is going wrong.

Does anyone on this ng have a question for me to ask them?

Len
Wembury, SW Devon

I not sure that anyone you talk to will be able to answer this, but here it is anyway.

Is it true that the computer models assume that the boundary layer is warmed by convection and not by the absorption of radiation from the surface by greenhouse gases?

"xmetman" wrote in message
...
My wife says that if she asks nicely will they take me back?

I know for a fact that they'll *never* take me back! Too much trouble LOL.

Will
--
" Some sects believe that the world was created 5000 years ago. Another sect
believes that it was created in 1910 "
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

On Saturday, 13 February 2016 10:58:47 UTC, wrote:
"xmetman" wrote in message
...
My wife says that if she asks nicely will they take me back?

I know for a fact that they'll *never* take me back! Too much trouble LOL.

Will
--
" Some sects believe that the world was created 5000 years ago. Another sect
believes that it was created in 1910 "
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

I'm more than likely in the same "never reinstate" list - although I did manage it last time.

Alastair Wrote in message:
On Saturday, 13 February 2016 10:08:33 UTC, Len Wood wrote:
Today I am taking my U3A Weather and Climate group on a visit to the high priesthood. That is, the Met Office HQ in Exeter.

They are an enthusiastic bunch of pensioners and will no doubt have many questions for the employees incarcerated there.

I will be interested to know how much leeway the operational meteorologists have to intervene when the model forecast for 12 hr or less ahead is going wrong.

Does anyone on this ng have a question for me to ask them?

Len
Wembury, SW Devon

I not sure that anyone you talk to will be able to answer this, but here it is anyway.

Is it true that the computer models assume that the boundary layer is warmed by convection and not by the absorption of radiation from the surface by greenhouse gases?

No.

--
Freddie
Pontesbury
Shropshire
102m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
http://twitter.com/PontesburyWx for hourly reports


----Android NewsGroup Reader----
http://usenet.sinaapp.com/

In message ,
xmetman writes
On Saturday, 13 February 2016 10:58:47 UTC, wrote:
"xmetman" wrote in message
...
My wife says that if she asks nicely will they take me back?

I know for a fact that they'll *never* take me back! Too much trouble LOL.

Will

I'm more than likely in the same "never reinstate" list - although I
did manage it last time.

So you are both like those former intelligence agents in the film "RED"
- "retired and extremely dangerous". So do you want to be played by
Bruce Willis, Morgan Freeman or John Malkovich?
--
John Hall
"Honest criticism is hard to take,
particularly from a relative, a friend,
an acquaintance, or a stranger." Franklin P Jones

On 13/02/2016 18:42, John Hall wrote:
In message ,
xmetman writes
On Saturday, 13 February 2016 10:58:47 UTC,
wrote:
"xmetman" wrote in message
...
My wife says that if she asks nicely will they take me back?

I know for a fact that they'll *never* take me back! Too much trouble
LOL.

Will

I'm more than likely in the same "never reinstate" list - although I
did manage it last time.

So you are both like those former intelligence agents in the film "RED"
- "retired and extremely dangerous". So do you want to be played by
Bruce Willis, Morgan Freeman or John Malkovich?

A friend of mine put an ad in his local newspaper for a wife, and got a
hundred replies, all saying 'you can have mine ' !


RonB

On Saturday, 13 February 2016 10:47:56 UTC, Alastair wrote:
On Saturday, 13 February 2016 10:08:33 UTC, Len Wood wrote:
Today I am taking my U3A Weather and Climate group on a visit to the high priesthood. That is, the Met Office HQ in Exeter.

They are an enthusiastic bunch of pensioners and will no doubt have many questions for the employees incarcerated there.

I will be interested to know how much leeway the operational meteorologists have to intervene when the model forecast for 12 hr or less ahead is going wrong.

Does anyone on this ng have a question for me to ask them?

Len
Wembury, SW Devon

I not sure that anyone you talk to will be able to answer this, but here it is anyway.

Is it true that the computer models assume that the boundary layer is warmed by convection and not by the absorption of radiation from the surface by greenhouse gases?
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1)You are right. No one there to answer that in any detail except, they are keen to publicise their 1.5 km model which takes more account of topography.

My answer: warming or cooling by surface fluxes according to surface type and synoptic situation (cloud) and worked out to give an energy balance at the surface. Pollution in terms of particles and greenhouse gas concentrations are fixed on the short time scale.

2)As regards probability forecasts, precipitation probability is all you get as you see on there website.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/w...u#?tab=fiveDay

They don't seem keen to go further. The TV weather presenters talk about confidence, as we do, having looked at ensembles.

Len, after a third trip to UKMO HQ on Saturday.

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